Buongiorno a tutti,
purtroppo il tempo è tiranno ma cercherò di esplicare in brevissime il perché ritengo che IBM sia interessante in ottica di medio periodo e perché questa discesa non deve preoccupare.
- Il management di IBM è tra i migliori al mondo ed ha un passato di successi e di target raggiunti davvero ragguardevole.
Contrariamente ad altre aziende ha come focus l'interesse degli azionisti e non, come purtroppo spesso capita, quello del management.
- Dal 2000 al 2013 hanno redistribuito (tra buyback e dividendi) 150 billions $ agli azionisti
Grazie a questa politica di buy back il numero di azioni circolanti si è ridotto, negli ultimi 9 anni, da 1.722.000.000 a 1.143.000.000 (un ritmo di abbattimento composto del 4.45%).
se dovesse continuare così il numero di azioni circolanti al 31.12.2020 sarà di 794.000.000.
detto ciò il p/e ttm di oggi è 12.11
ad utili invariati il p/e al 31.12.2020 a questi prezzi sarebbe di 8.4
- Gli utili societari, nonostante un fatturato poco crescente, sono passati sempre negli ultimi 9 anni da 7.613B a 16.604B ; il tutto grazie ad una politica di efficientamento e dismissione degli attivi con meno margini. significa un aumento composto del 9.05%. Il tutto con una progressione costante davvero impressionante.
stimando per prudenza un ritmo di crescita dimezzato (al 4.5%) degli utili netti fino al 31.12.2020 si arriverebbe ad un utile di 23.600B
- Ricapitolando ed unendo i due ragionamenti (buy back al 4.45% annuo e crescita utili al 4.5% annuo) arriveremmo al 31.12.2020 con:
azioni circolanti: 794.000.000
utile netto: 23.6B
ed ipotizzando un P/E di 12 arriveremmo ad un valore di ogni singola azione di:
23.600.000.000*12/794.000.000 = 356 $
Il tutto senza contare i dividendi maturati in questo arco di tempo.
- - - - - - -
Paradossalmente questa discesa è positiva per il titolo. La società potrà buybackare con lo stesso importo un numero maggiore di azioni.
Un saluto a tutti
p.s.
nei prossimi giorni credo che aumenterò l'esposizione sul titolo!
Interessante ragionamento.
Innanzitutto sarebbe importante che IBM centrasse i target pianificati con la road map 2015.
Generating Higher Value at IBM
Key 2015 Road Map Objectives:
Software becomes about half of segment profit
Growth markets approach 30 percent of geographic revenue
Generate $8 billion in productivity through enterprise transformation
Return $70 billion to shareholders
Invest $20 billion in acquisitions
Eps minimo 20 $
Probabilmente a fine 2014 sarà stilata una nuova road map.
Ecco cosa diceva Buffett nella lettera 2011:
Let’s use IBM as an example. As all business observers know, CEOs Lou Gerstner and Sam Palmisano
did a superb job in moving IBM from near-bankruptcy twenty years ago to its prominence today. Their
operational accomplishments were truly extraordinary.
But their financial management was equally brilliant, particularly in recent years as the company’s
financial flexibility improved. Indeed, I can think of no major company that has had better financial management, a
skill that has materially increased the gains enjoyed by IBM shareholders. The company has used debt wisely, made
value-adding acquisitions almost exclusively for cash and aggressively repurchased its own stock.
Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%.
Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us.
Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the
day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period?
I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years.
Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire
250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we
would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year
period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after
five years, of which we would own 6.5%.
If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100
million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher
price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $11⁄2 billion more than if the “high-price”
repurchase scenario had taken place.
The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own
money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks
rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including
those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble
a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.
Charlie and I don’t expect to win many of you over to our way of thinking – we’ve observed enough
human behavior to know the futility of that – but we do want you to be aware of our personal calculus. And here
a confession is in order: In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben
Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock
prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one
of the luckiest moments in my life.
In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But
an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is
likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will
abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday.
.... così è capace anche quel rompic.o.g.l.i.o.n.i del mio ex-vicino di casa
