Ci stavo dando un'occhiata...
Magari sbaglio io qualcosa, ma la dinamica del debito non mi entusiasma.
Bella azienda, per carità, ma il leverage non è basso. Forse qualcuno più ferrato di me ci può dare un'occhiata?
Ultimi 5 trimestri:
Vedi l'allegato 2659205
Vedi l'allegato 2659204
Recente comunicato S&P su Amplifon
Italy-Based Hearing Care Retailer Amplifon Assigned 'BB+' Rating; Proposed Bond Issuance Rated 'BB+'; Outlook Stable
29-Jan-2020 05:15 EST
Italy-based Amplifon SpA is the leader in the global hearing aid retail market, with an 11% market share. It generated revenue of about €1.4 billion and S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of €317 million in 2018.
The group operates exclusively in the hearing aid market, and benefits from a solid retail brand reputation in its core markets, thanks to its differentiated offer of hearing aid devices and comprehensive additional services to customers.
We are assigning a 'BB+' long-term issuer credit rating to Amplifon.
We are assigning a 'BB+' issue rating to the proposed €300 million bond issuance, with a recovery rating of '3'.
The outlook is stable, reflecting our view that Amplifon will continue to benefit from its leading position in its core markets, and will generate adjusted margins of above 20%, reported free operating cash flow (FOCF) of €130 million-€150 million per year, and adjusted debt to EBITDA below 3x.
LONDON (S&P Global Ratings) Jan. 29, 2020—S&P Global Ratings today assigned the ratings listed above
Our rating assessment reflects Amplifon's leading position in its key markets, its good profitability, cash flow conversion, and the positive underlying market trends. The main rating constraints are the group's exposure to a single sector (hearing aid), its niche customer base of over 65 years old, and its reliance on key personnel of audiologists. We evaluate the group's exposure to reimbursement regimes as a potential risk in case of significant regulation change, although we do not envisage this in the near future. This scenario is partly mitigated by Amplifon's well-balanced geographic footprint.
Amplifon will continue to benefit from its leading position in the hearing care retail market and positive underlying market trends. With about 11% share of the global market, Amplifon is the world's leading hearing care retailer. The group is one of the few international hearing care retailers, while other market players are either small local independent players (representing approximately 50% of the global market), non-specialty retailers (greater than 10%), other specialty retailers (greater than 25%), or online players (about 1%). We believe that Amplifon will continue to benefit from its leading position, focused on the mid to high-end hearing care offer and acting as the prime small-player consolidator. In our view, non-specialty retailers are targeting the market's "price seeking" segment, in which Amplifon does not engage. Furthermore, we think small players lack the scale, brand equity, and necessary marketing and investment capabilities to challenge Amplifon's position. We therefore see these barriers to entry benefiting Amplifon.
In addition, we believe the positive underlying trends that are fuelling the global hearing aid retail market's growth will continue to benefit Amplifon, which has an estimated end-2019 worth of €15 billion. The majority of hearing aid users are over 65 years old, which is the fastest-growing demographic segment in all markets. Over-65s are expected to increase at about 3.3% globally, compared with 0.7% for under-65s, and over-65-year-olds are expected to make up about 12% of the global population in 2030. We believe Amplifon is well positioned in its market, because the prevalence of disabling hearing loss in Western Europe by age is about 10% for 65-74 years old, and 27% for over 75 years old. In addition, hearing loss risk factors are increasing, and these are not offset by higher prevention. We believe Amplifon can benefit from these trends and capture additional penetration opportunities. The market penetration rate is still relatively low (for example, in the U.S., about 70% of the population with disabling hearing loss use hearing aids, and 10% of the population with mild hearing loss). Amplifon believes it can expand its customer reach by increasing awareness, improving technology, and benefiting from growing wellness trends.
Additionally, although we see Amplifon as a specialty retailer, we believe it is not exposed to the same risks as other specialty retailers involved in nonmedical segments. Amplifon's product offering is less discretionary than most specialty retailers, as it addresses a need for medical aid. However, Amplifon targets the mid to high-end hearing aid market, which we deem to be more discretionary than entry-level hearing care. We believe that in an economic downturn, customers might delay purchases, especially to replace older devices with ones that are more advanced and more expensive. In addition, compared with more traditional retailers, we do not believe the threat of online disruption is as big for Amplifon, owing to the need for specialized, regulated medical advice that is linked to hearing aid purchases.
Amplifon will continue to support its brand equity by investing in innovation and providing comprehensive additional services.
The group enjoys brand equity in its main markets, with No. 1 or No. 2 brand awareness in most countries where it operates. We believe this is the result of significant marketing investments, and the group's qualitative and high-end product and service offering. Amplifon offers different ranges of hearing aid devices, with mid to high-end price positioning. It recently launched its Amplifon product line, which brands all its hardware from manufacturers as "Amplifon". In Italy, the branded-product line has a slightly higher average price, thanks to Amplifon's relatively strong brand awareness. This is largely due to the group's broad store network, which provides proximity to customers.
In addition to the hardware, Amplifon offers its customers comprehensive services. In all Amplifon points of sale, the group uses a proprietary protocol called "Amplifon 360," patented and endorsed by the medical community, to offer a personalized assessment of the hearing aid needs for each customer. We also believe that Amplifon's brand equity is built around the quality of its in-store audiologists: hearing care professionals who assess, recommend, and personalize the service offering.
Amplifon has also created software, available as a smartphone app, that links to users' hearing aid devices and provides them with additional services, such as advice on how best to use the product. The application also gathers significant information on product usage, which can be used by hearing care professionals to improve the product offering. We note that because the consumers are older, about 15% of Amplifon product users actively use the app, which we believe is relatively low.
We do not think Amplifon will diversify away from hearing aids, and we believe its exposure to reimbursement regimes and reliance on key audiologist personnel will continue. Given the favorable growth prospects the global hearing aid market offers, we understand that Amplifon will continue to focus on its core expertise of providing qualitative hearing aid care, and does not intend to diversify its sector exposure. We evaluate the exposure to a single sector as a constraint on our overall rating assessment. This is also because we consider the niche customer base of over-65s is not the most open to upscaling. Indeed, the customer repurchase rate following the four-to-five-year lifecycle of a typical hearing aid device is quite low.
In addition, because a hearing aid is a medical device, Amplifon is exposed to the health care regulations that cover audiologists' required medical qualifications, as well as reimbursement regimes in different countries. Owing to the high-end positioning of Amplifon's offer, only about 20% of products are reimbursed to Amplifon's end users (with significant differences by country: for example, in Italy and Germany, hearing devices can be reimbursed up to 100% for the most basic offer, whereas in Spain there is no reimbursement possible for users over 16 years of age). The group's geographical diversification somewhat mitigates the exposure to specific country regulations.
We take into account Amplifon's reliance on key personnel: the audiologists providing a personalized and differentiated service to customers in Amplifon's stores. Audiologists are key to Amplifon's value proposition, and as a result, the loss of audiologists or difficulty in attracting them would pose a significant risk to Amplifon's business model. Although we understand that in Amplifon's core markets such as Italy, audiologists view the group as an employer of choice, we believe that when entering a new market Amplifon must develop a strong proposition that will attract and retain good audiologists. The group intends to mitigate this risk by retaining the audiologists of acquired entities, and by offering its audiologists training and career opportunities.
Amplifon will likely sustain good margins of above 20%, and despite the relative capital intensity of the business, generate significant cash flow. Thanks to its leading market position, we understand Amplifon has substantial bargaining power with its five hearing aid hardware suppliers. The group has in the past demonstrated its ability to maintain and grow its adjusted EBITDA margins, which we forecast will remain in the 20%-25% range. It has relatively low working capital requirements, and despite ongoing necessary investments in the retail network, we project it will continue to generate significant FOCF of above €130 million annually. We also believe its S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA will be below 3x, and that the group will engage only in bolt-on acquisitions.
Following its largest acquisition in 2018 of Spain-based hearing aid retailer GAES, we now understand the group will focus on relatively small bolt-on acquisitions (not exceeding €100 million per year), mostly of independent local players with an existing store network and audiologists.
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Amplifon will maintain its leading hearing care retailer position, and will progressively expand its offering to new countries. It also reflects our expectation that the group's profitability will increase in the coming two years as it rolls out its own Amplifon product range to new countries. We believe Amplifon will continue to generate adjusted EBITDA margins of about 20%-25% and adjusted debt to EBITDA of below 3x, and generate FOCF above €130 million each year.
We would consider lowering our ratings if the group's financial profile deteriorated such that its adjusted debt to EBITDA level was sustainably above 3x, or if EBITDAR coverage was below 3x. That could be the case if the group engaged in material debt-funded acquisitions, and if there was no commitment to lower leverage. A downgrade could also stem from increased competition leading to reduced market shares, or quality issues that would affect the Amplifon brand and lead to reduced volumes.
We would consider raising our ratings if the group managed to maintain or improve its profitability while expanding in size. We would need to see a track record of profitable growth, and see adjusted debt to EBITDA approaching 2x. This could, for example, come from further geographic expansion into emerging markets, and successful penetration of adjacent markets such as products for younger people with less disabling hearing losses.
