Abn Amro è un'occasione d'acquisto?
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  1. #1

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    Abn Amro è un'occasione d'acquisto?

    Entrato su Abn amro a 15,88 pensando che la perdita di 1,5 mld di market value fosse eccessiva alla luce della massima multa prevedibile che per Ing in caso simile è stata di 800 milioni. E poi Abn amro è dello stato olandese al 56%


    Reuters breaking view 26.09.2019
    So much for supposedly dull European banks. ABN Amro has revealed that Dutch prosecutors are probing it for suspected breaches of anti-money laundering rules. The near-10% drop in the state-controlled lender’s market value on Thursday morning suggests investors are bracing for a U.S.-style mega-fine.

    The bank led by Kees van Dijkhuizen warned of a possible investigation back in August after the Dutch central bank ordered a review of its retail clients. Prosecutors now say that ABN Amro reported suspicious transactions too late, or not at all, over a lengthy period. It also failed to conduct proper investigations into the behaviour of some clients.

    Further details, such as the value of transactions involved, are sparse. But the 1.5 billion euros wiped off the bank’s market value gives an indication of investors’ fears. A fine equivalent to that amount would be almost double what larger domestic rival ING paid in 2018 after admitting “serious shortcomings” in fighting financial crime over a six-year period.

    ABN Amro can afford to take the hit. Even after paying out 1.5 billion euros its common equity Tier 1 capital ratio would still be a healthy 16.6%, according to Breakingviews calculations. That’s well above most European peers. A bigger concern would be the impact on the bank’s generous dividend policy. Analysts expect it to pay out 1.4 billion euros to shareholders this year, equivalent to 64% of estimated earnings, according to Refinitiv data.

    As Denmark’s Danske Bank and Sweden’s Swedbank have shown, however, the involvement of U.S. investigators would raise the possibility of even heftier retribution. That is only a prospect: ABN Amro says it is currently unaware of any American probe. In ING’s case, the penalties imposed by Dutch regulators were sufficiently robust to persuade U.S. authorities to drop the case. Shareholders seeking to quantify the damage to ABN Amro, however, are assuming the worst.

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    Il caso migliore

    ossia multa di 150-200 milioni come da stima di Kbc securities

    AMSTERDAM - ABN Amro can receive a fine of up to 200 million euros from the Public Prosecution Service if the investigation by the Ministry of Justice shows serious abuses at the bank. Analysts at KBC Securities write this in a report.

    Specifically, the market experts think of a bandwidth for the fine between 150 million and 200 million euros. This is in the same proportion to the market value of ABN Amro as the fine of ING last year of 775 million euros. The market value of ABN Amro is around 20 percent of that of ING, according to the market researchers.

    An important assumption in this fine estimate is that the seriousness of the money laundering case at ABN Amro would be just as bad as at ING at the time. The analysts note that there is still too little information about the case to guess how serious ABN Amro's actions actually were. Furthermore, KBC analysts point to the bank's involvement in 'the shadowy diamond sector', which is a cause for concern, also in connection with the money laundering case.

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    A 14.90 potrebbe essere interessante, ossiai livelli di 4 anni scorsi.

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