Entrato su Abn amro a 15,88 pensando che la perdita di 1,5 mld di market value fosse eccessiva alla luce della massima multa prevedibile che per Ing in caso simile è stata di 800 milioni. E poi Abn amro è dello stato olandese al 56%
Reuters breaking view 26.09.2019
So much for supposedly dull European banks. ABN Amro has revealed that Dutch prosecutors are probing it for suspected breaches of anti-money laundering rules. The near-10% drop in the state-controlled lender’s market value on Thursday morning suggests investors are bracing for a U.S.-style mega-fine.
The bank led by Kees van Dijkhuizen warned of a possible investigation back in August after the Dutch central bank ordered a review of its retail clients. Prosecutors now say that ABN Amro reported suspicious transactions too late, or not at all, over a lengthy period. It also failed to conduct proper investigations into the behaviour of some clients.
Further details, such as the value of transactions involved, are sparse. But the 1.5 billion euros wiped off the bank’s market value gives an indication of investors’ fears. A fine equivalent to that amount would be almost double what larger domestic rival ING paid in 2018 after admitting “serious shortcomings” in fighting financial crime over a six-year period.
ABN Amro can afford to take the hit. Even after paying out 1.5 billion euros its common equity Tier 1 capital ratio would still be a healthy 16.6%, according to Breakingviews calculations. That’s well above most European peers. A bigger concern would be the impact on the bank’s generous dividend policy. Analysts expect it to pay out 1.4 billion euros to shareholders this year, equivalent to 64% of estimated earnings, according to Refinitiv data.
As Denmark’s Danske Bank and Sweden’s Swedbank have shown, however, the involvement of U.S. investigators would raise the possibility of even heftier retribution. That is only a prospect: ABN Amro says it is currently unaware of any American probe. In ING’s case, the penalties imposed by Dutch regulators were sufficiently robust to persuade U.S. authorities to drop the case. Shareholders seeking to quantify the damage to ABN Amro, however, are assuming the worst.
Reuters breaking view 26.09.2019
So much for supposedly dull European banks. ABN Amro has revealed that Dutch prosecutors are probing it for suspected breaches of anti-money laundering rules. The near-10% drop in the state-controlled lender’s market value on Thursday morning suggests investors are bracing for a U.S.-style mega-fine.
The bank led by Kees van Dijkhuizen warned of a possible investigation back in August after the Dutch central bank ordered a review of its retail clients. Prosecutors now say that ABN Amro reported suspicious transactions too late, or not at all, over a lengthy period. It also failed to conduct proper investigations into the behaviour of some clients.
Further details, such as the value of transactions involved, are sparse. But the 1.5 billion euros wiped off the bank’s market value gives an indication of investors’ fears. A fine equivalent to that amount would be almost double what larger domestic rival ING paid in 2018 after admitting “serious shortcomings” in fighting financial crime over a six-year period.
ABN Amro can afford to take the hit. Even after paying out 1.5 billion euros its common equity Tier 1 capital ratio would still be a healthy 16.6%, according to Breakingviews calculations. That’s well above most European peers. A bigger concern would be the impact on the bank’s generous dividend policy. Analysts expect it to pay out 1.4 billion euros to shareholders this year, equivalent to 64% of estimated earnings, according to Refinitiv data.
As Denmark’s Danske Bank and Sweden’s Swedbank have shown, however, the involvement of U.S. investigators would raise the possibility of even heftier retribution. That is only a prospect: ABN Amro says it is currently unaware of any American probe. In ING’s case, the penalties imposed by Dutch regulators were sufficiently robust to persuade U.S. authorities to drop the case. Shareholders seeking to quantify the damage to ABN Amro, however, are assuming the worst.
