Financial Markets Observatory Lab. [ex-Aurum] - Pagina 42
Titoli sotto l?albero: ecco i pi interessanti sui multipli e per dividendi
Il 2019 stato sicuramente un anno d?oro per i mercati azionari internazionali, mercato europeo incluso. Nonostante la debolezza economica del vecchio continente infatti i risk asset quest?anno sono stati …
I sei trend tecnologici che domineranno nel 2020
Gli smartphone continueranno a dominare la scena tecnologica anche il prossimo anno, ma con nuove declinazioni sempre più intelligenti. Nel 2020 l’intero ecosistema dello smartphone supererà i 900 miliardi di …
Ponderazione Btp in bilanci banche: da Abi e Confindustria netto no. Mes chiarisce parole Gualtieri
E' fondamentale che dal Parlamento italiano arrivi un no corale alla ponderazione dei titoli di stato italiani. Parola del numero uno dell'Abi, l'associazione bancaria italiana, che ha parlato nel corso …
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  1. #411
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    Global stocks-market.

    ►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
    H! ALL

    Some charts about personal Nd/Giant portfolio.


    The following portfolio (blue-line) is the performance vs. S&P500 (dotted gray-line as SPY-ETF) of the personal giant Nd/100 stocks.
    Below there are the following elements:
    the single stock charts, in order to see their main trend;
    the main benchmarks (QQQ, SPY, ISI), in order to compare the portfolio price-evolution;
    the recommendations reported for the stocks of portfolio, from the Nasdaq institutional site;
    The January Gann rule for the stocks of portfolio.
    The portfolio shows a Pyroclastic outperformance vs. SPY & ISI, and for this reason, the trend of Nd/giants portfolio is very positive.

    NASDAQ GIANT





    ► Recommendations: AAPL -- AMZN -- CSCO -- GOOG -- INTC -- MSFT -- ORCL -- QCOM -- VOD

    ► The following links are a platform in order to see the key-prices of the GANN's Jannuary Rule or Effect ("Watch January 2nd to 7th and 15th to 21st; watch these time periods each year and note the high and low prices. Until these high prices are crossed or low prices broken, consider the trend up or down"). AAPL, AMZN, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, QCOM, VOD.
    ► Follows also the Jenuary rule of Gann for other benchmarks.



    I hope at least minimally useful. In case of interest (uribor free) ►►►►►►►.


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  2. #412
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    Aurum [Au].

    ►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
    See post n.1435 for 3D type.

    Some charts about Au/U.






    I hope at least minimally useful. In case of interest (uribor free, but spread for ever) ►►►►►►►.


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  3. #413
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    ►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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    Some notes/charts about Volatility ETF.

    Stock Quote ZIV,XXV,XVZ,XVIX,VXZ,VXX,VIXY,VIXM,VIIZ, VIIX,UVXY,TVIZ,TVIX,SVXY,IVOP

    General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
    ► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
    ► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
    ► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
























    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
    Ultima modifica di Sal.Vi; 16-08-14 alle 17:31

  4. #414
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    ►►megalithic & pyroclastic studies◀◀

    ►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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    Inequality in OECD Countries.
    Abstract. - Recent discussions about rising inequality in industrialized countries have triggered calls for more government intervention and redistribution.
    Due to obvious behavioral effects caused by redistribution, it is however not clear whether redistributional policies are indeed able to combat inequality.
    This paper contributes to this relevant research question by using different contextual country-level data sources to study inequality trends in OECD countries since the 1980s.
    We first investigate the development of inequality over time before analyzing the question of whether governments can effectively reduce inequality.
    Different identification strategies, using fixed effects and instrumental variables models, provide some evidence that governments are capable of reducing income inequality despite countervailing behavioral adjustments.
    The effect is stronger for social expenditure policies than for progressive taxation, which seems to trigger more inequality increasing indirect behavioral effects.
    Our results also suggest that the use of secondary inequality data should be handled with caution.

    Conclusion.
    This paper uses a panel of industrialized OECD countries over the time period
    between 1981 and 2005 to analyze the e ect of redistributive policies on post-tax
    inequality. Using di erent data sources to measure inequality, the rst part of this
    paper nds that the Gini coecient has increased since the early 1980s, after a
    period of downwards trending inequality between the 1960s and 1980s. The obser-
    vation that radical and liberal welfare states are characterized by more inequality
    than social-democratic or conservative ones provides a hint that institutions seem to
    matter for the income distribution. The large rise in inequality in Eastern European
    states since the breakdown of socialism in the late 80s/early 90s adds to this pre-
    sumption. The analysis also shows that di erent data sources of the Gini coecient
    display di erent levels as well as developments in inequality, suggesting that the use
    of empirical inequality measures may be critical and results might depend on the
    data source. This is con rmed in our regression analyses which nd coecients to
    di er both in terms of size and precision depending on which data source is used.
    However, assuming that the data are consistently measured within one data
    source, the ordinal character of the data can be exploited to conduct multivariate
    analyses with inequality as the dependent variable.13 Exploiting this reasoning,
    the second part of this paper asks the question of whether redistributive policies
    signi cantly reduce inequality. We discuss potential sources of endogeneity and
    employ xed e ects and instrumental variable approaches to identify the e ect of
    three policy variables of interest. Despite behavioral feedback e ects, we provide
    some evidence that especially government spending and social expenditure meet their
    target of reducing post-government inequality as measured by the Gini coecient.
    As for our precisely estimated coecients, our di erent identi cation methods yield
    that a 1% increase in government spending or public social expenditure is roughly
    related to a 0.3% drop in inequality. Policies of government expenditure seem to
    matter more for reducing inequality than the degree of progressivity in the tax
    system. The insigni cant results for the latter might hint into the direction that
    higher tax progressivity indeed exhibits (stronger) behavioral e ects, which tend
    to increase pre-tax inequality and hence countervail the inequality reducing direct
    e ects (Poterba 2007). Our results show that inequality reduction is more e ectively
    achieved through measures of expenditure as opposed to taxation. Hence, given the
    disincentive and distorting e ects of progressive taxation, our results might imply
    that governments should combat inequality through policies on the expenditure side
    rather than increasing the progressivity of the tax system. Our ndings might also
    help explaining observed di erences in inequality between European countries and
    the US. While the US has one of the most progressive income taxes in the world,
    very little redistribution is conducted through social bene ts. In contrast, European
    welfare states rely (on average) much more on bene ts and government expenditure
    to ght inequality.
    The diculties of identifying a clear and clean causal e ect are omnipresent
    and inherent to this literature. Scholars would require either a eld experiment or
    good quasi-experimental design to obtain a clear-cut causal picture. Obviously|and
    this problem is underlying almost all, if not all, country-level studies|it is nearly
    impossible to exploit such an identi cation strategy, i.e., to randomly assign redis-
    tributive policies to a set of countries. We identify possible sources of endogeneity in
    our setting and take several steps to overcome it. The Fixed E ects and IV methods
    used here can certainly mitigate problems of endogeneity, but there remains
    doubt if they are sucient. Looking at single policy changes in redistribution (the
    \treatment"), Di erence-in-Di erence (DiD) analyses may help to identify a clear
    e ect. Though, the required \common trend" assumption across both countries is
    often dicult to defend. Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010)
    recently proposed a new approach based on a \synthetic" counterfactual country
    (region). The method uses a combination of other countries (regions) on similar
    pre-treatment characteristics to run an analysis similar to DiD, where the matched
    synthetic country serves as the counterfactual. However, in terms of the research
    question imposed in this paper, DiD and synthetic-country approaches are not ap-
    propriate because we do not look at the e ect of one particular policy change on
    inequality. System-GMM methods may also be able to handle some of the inherent
    problems of endogeneity, but require very rich data, which are often not available,
    and are highly sensitive to speci cation and the choice of internal instruments. Ad-
    ditionally, in many set-ups|including ours|System-GMM methods are not eligible
    due to panel structures with small N and large T or due to the failure to assume
    ''weak exogeneity".
    Considering the political importance and widely held debates about (increas-
    ing) inequality around the world, the research question imposed in our paper needs
    further attention. Policy makers heavily rely on researchers and their analyses when
    considering di erent measures of reducing inequality. Therefore, it is important
    that the issue of causal identi cation will be further approached in future research.
    Quasi-experimental methods such as good IVs, stemming from random processes,
    or DiD methods, looking at single policy measures, are a promising path.

    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

  5. #415
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    Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions.
    Abstract. - The Great Recession, and the fiscal response to it, has revived interest in the size of fiscal multipliers.
    Standard business cycle models have difficulties generating multipliers greater than one.
    And they also fail to produce any significant asymmetry in the size of the multipliers over the business cycle.
    In this paper we employ a variant of the Curdia-Woodford model of costly financial intermediation to show that fiscal multipliers are strongly countercyclical.
    In particular, they can take values exceeding two during recessions, declining to values below one during expansions.

    Conclusion.
    Countercyclical scal policy represents a puzzle. Policymakers routinely ght economic
    downturns by using budget de cits, presumably because they think that scal multipliers
    are large. While this is in line with Keynes's original recommendation and is consistent
    with traditional IS-LM type of thinking, there exists preciously little in terms of modern
    economic thinking that supports multiplier values exceeding unity during recessions.
    Some recent work has suggested that the zero nominal interest bound may make multipliers
    large during recessions (exceeding one) even when they are quite small during expansion.
    But, except for the recent recession, countercyclical policy does not seem to coincide with
    the presence of such constraint on monetary policy, so the zero bound cannot be the full story.
    In this paper we have proposed an alternative, more general theory of large and cyclically
    variable multipliers. Our theory is based on the postulate that nancial frictions matter
    for the business cycle. And how much they matter varies over the business cycle. There
    exists a presumption in the literature that the variation in the nancial frictions is countercyclical,
    and we have provided empirical evidence supporting this presumption. We
    show that countercylical nancial frictions can make government spending quite e ective
    during recessions, in particular when nanced by debt. The main mechanism is similar to
    the old-Keynesian idea that providing nancially strapped agents (households and rms)
    with funds creates a positive wealth e ect for them even when they take into account
    any increase in their future tax liabilities. The more severe and widespread the nancial
    constraints, the larger this wealth e ect and thus the higher the likelihood of a positive
    aggregate consumption response to a scal stimulus. While our analysis relies on spread
    movements rather than on the relaxation of quantitative borrowing constraints the logic
    is the same.

    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

  6. #416
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    The Credit Overhang: Is A $46 Trillion Perfect Storm Brewing?.
    (Editor's Note: Uncertainty continues to plague global corporate credit markets. Through a series of reports titled "The Credit Overhang," Standard & Poor's Ratings Services will comment on the competing forces that can potentially influence corporate credit quality and alter the fragile equilibrium that currently exists in the global corporate credit landscape. This is the initial article of the series.)

    The global "wall" of nonfinancial corporate debt maturities coming due from 2012 to 2016 is not new to market observers. Less discussed is the incremental financing that corporate debt issuers will need over this period to fund capital expenditure and working capital growth. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services estimates the total amount of refinancing and new money requirements over the next five years at between $43 trillion and $46 trillion. This demand for funds will potentially compound the credit rationing that may occur as banks seek to restructure their balance sheets, and bond and equity investors reassess their risk-return thresholds. These factors, amid the current eurozone crisis, a soft U.S. economic recovery following the Great Recession, and the prospect of slowing Chinese growth, raise the downside risk of a perfect storm for credit markets, in our view. (Watch the related CreditMatters TV segment titled "The Credit Overhang: Is A $46 Trillion Perfect Storm Brewing?," dated May 10, 2012.)

    Though we believe that this downside risk remains, it is our working assumption that global banks and debt capital markets will largely be able to continue to provide the majority of liquidity to allow most corporate issuers to proactively manage their forthcoming refinancings. However, the balance is fragile, and existing or new sensitivities could flare up, derailing this base case. Governments and banking regulators are now not as well placed to counter another perfect storm scenario given that they have already expended so much of their fiscal and monetary arsenal to mitigate the problems arising in recent years. Furthermore, some countries need to implement austerity measures on multiple levels to deal with their own sovereign debt and budget deficit issues. This priority need may hamper their respective capacity to respond to new macroeconomic problems. In a perfect storm scenario, a wider pool of borrowers than just the highly leveraged ones could find its future funding and refinancing needs in jeopardy.
    A formidable wall of debt maturities and new money requirements over the next five years or so (which Standard & Poor's estimate at $43 trillion to $46 trillion), along with a volatile geopolitical climate that is causing skittishness in financial markets, poses downside risk of a perfect storm for global credit markets.
    Notwithstanding this downside risk, our current view is that most nonfinancial corporate debt issuers will be able to continue to manage their forthcoming refinancings, although credit rationing may constrain new term bank financing to fund growth.
    Governments and central banks have less fiscal and monetary flexibility to prevent serious problems emanating from future market disturbances. A perfect storm scenario would likely cause financing disruptions even for borrowers that are not highly leveraged............................... .......................


    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

  7. #417
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    Greece: Cant Pay/Wont Pay?
    How much can one country squeeze out of another? I was prompted to think about this on Monday, when I spoke in Rotterdam at the launch of a major new book: Occupied Economies: An Economic History of Nazi-Occupied Europe, 1939-1945, by Hein Klemann (a Dutch historian) and Sergei Kudryashov (a Russian historian).
    The main story of the book is how Germany extracted resources from occupied Europe that paid for one third of its war costs and the consequences for the countries that paid. When you read history, its natural also to think about the present: what has changed, and what is the same. So, I thought about Greece ............ ................... .............. .........





    Dynamic Debt Runs

    Review of Financial Studies, Volume 25, Issue 6, Pp. 1799-1843.
    Abstract.
    This article analyzes the dynamic coordination problem among creditors of a firm with a time-varying fundamental and a staggered debt structure. In deciding whether to roll over his debt, each maturing creditor is concerned about the rollover decisions of other creditors whose debt matures during his next contract period. We derive a unique threshold equilibrium and characterize the roles of fundamental volatility, credit lines, and debt maturity in driving runs. In particular, we show that when fundamental volatility is sufficiently high, commonly used measures such as temporarily keeping the firm alive under runs and increasing debt maturity can exacerbate rather than mitigate runs.



    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

  8. #418
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    Sun2❤12&More(Frattali.Frattaglie.Fritt at e.Franchige.Franchi.Futures.Fssy)

    ►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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    Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization?

    Most economic analyses of climate change have focused on the aggregate impact on countries of mitigation actions. We depart first in disaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularly on manufacturing output and exports. Second, we decompose the impact of a modest agreement on emissions reductions17 percent relative to 2005 levels by 2020 for industrial countries and 17 percent relative to business-as-usual for developing countriesinto three components: the change in the price of carbon due to each country's emission cuts per se; the further change in this price due to emissions tradability; and the changes due to any international transfers (private and public). Manufacturing output and exports in low carbon intensity countries such as Brazil are less affected. In contrast, in high carbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even a modest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 33.5 percent and manufacturing exports by 5.57 percent. The increase in the carbon price induced by emissions tradability hurts manufacturing output most while the real exchange rate effects of transfers hurt exports most.


    Some 'Sun'-Stocks






















    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
    Ultima modifica di Sal.Vi; 06-10-13 alle 12:31 Motivo: ❣ format & text corrections ❣

  9. #419
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    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.

    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

  10. #420
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    Citazione Originariamente Scritto da Sal.Vi Visualizza Messaggio
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    I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
    ☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
    /▌
    /|
    Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
    It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
    ₭$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-MPR $0UND $$TM$ ❣❣❣
    Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ [email protected]❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
    Confidiamo in giugno allora.....

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