Venerdì mattina ho acquistato DIAGEO (non tutta) a 657 pence su Londra. Metto una breve analisi per spiegare il perchè e come opero in generale sui titoli.
Diageo è il big degli spirits ed è inglese.
I marchi di proprietà sono:
Archers
Archers is based on a traditional schnapps recipe mellowed with the delicious taste of peaches. Launched in 1986 and sold in more than 60 countries.
www.archers.com
Baileys
The world's number one liqueur, launched in 1974 and by far the biggest selling cream liqueur with sales in excess of 50 million bottles. The brand continues to grow and in 1998 was the top selling spirits brand in the UK at Christmas.
www.baileys.com
Bell's Scotch Whisky
The best selling Scotch Whisky in the UK and South Africa.
Cacique Rum
Cacique, a unique blend of seven Venezuelan aged rums, is the number one selling rum in Venezuela and Spain.
Captain Morgan Black Label Rum
Captain Morgan Black Label rum offers a unique depth of taste. Its dark, full-bodied colour and distinctive rich, smooth taste are unmistakable.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan Original Spiced Rum
A favourite world-wide, Captain Morgan Original Spiced Rum is the taste that started it all: deliciously different and exceptionally smooth.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan's Parrot Bay Rum
With Captain Morgan's Parrot Bay, you're enjoying a taste as unexpectedly refreshing as a cool breeze off clear waters.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan Private Stock Rum
The finest of Captain Morgan's rums and the product of 300 years of rum-making tradition, Private Stock is an extremely smooth, rich blend of Puerto Rican rum and warm, mellow island spices.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan Silver Spiced Rum
Like Captain Morgan Original Spiced, Silver Spiced is a distinctive blend of rich Puerto Rican rum and tropical spice.
www.rum.com
Crown Royal Canadian Whisky
The world's leading premiuim Canadian Whisky, Crown Royal is known for its rich flavor and pleasant bouquet, making it an ideal spirit served on the rocks, straight up or in a variety of cocktails.
www.crownroyal.com
Crown Royal Special Reserve Canadian Whisky
Crown Royal's Master Blender created this special bottling from a select number of extra special whiskies that had been set aside specifically for this use.
www.crownroyal.com
The Classic Malts
Cragganmore, Dalwhinnie, Glenkinchie, Lagavulin, Oban, Talisker. A collection of the finest examples of single malt whiskies, representing each of Scotland's classic distillery regions.
Cuervo
Cuervo is the number one premium tequila in the world", selling approximately 4.3 million cases last year.
www.josecuervo.com
Gilbey's
The world's number four international gin brand, selling more than 31 million bottles every year across 150 markets.
Gordon's
The world's leading international gin brand, selling more than 64 million bottles every year in 160 markets.
Hennessy
Created in 1765 and owned by Moët Hennessy. Hennessy is the world leader in cognac. UDV has an extensive international trading and equity partnership with Moët Hennessy.
Johnnie Walker Red Label
The world's leading Scotch Whisky brand, selling approximately 79 million bottles every year.
www.johnniewalker.com
Johnnie Walker Black Label
The unique 12 year old Scotch whisky, selling approximately 37 million bottles every year.
www.johnniewalker.com
Johnnie Walker Gold Label
The golden Scotch whisky, blended from a selection of rare aged malts, each a minimum of 18 years old.
www.johnniewalker.com
Johnnie Walker Blue Label
A brand of exceptional taste and quality blended from a selection of the rarest, oldest malts
www.johnniewalker.com
J&B Rare
Number one Scotch whisky in Europe, selling more than 27 million bottles a year in Spain alone.
www.jbscotch.com
Myers's Original Dark Jamaican Rum
Myers's Original Dark Jamaican Rum is a premium full-bodied, dark rum that has been produced on the island of Jamaica since 1879 from pure sugarcane molasses and natural yeasts.
Pimms
The secret blend of gin, herbs, spices and fruit extracts that epitomises the English summer.
Seagram's 7 Crown
Since its introduction in 1934, Seagram's 7 Crown has sold more than 4440 million bottles, giving it the distinction of being consumed more often than any other spirits brand in the United States.
www.seagram7.com
Seagram's VO
Created in 1911 by Joseph E. Seagram to commemorate the marriage of his grandson, Thomas, by sharing his "Very Own" blend of fine whiskies that are consistently smooth, well-rounded and a testimony to the fine art of whisky blending.
www.vowhisky.com
Smirnoff Red
The world's leading international vodka and second best selling spirits brand, selling more than 180 million bottles every year.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Ice
With its classic citrus flavour, Smirnoff Ice was launched in 1999 and is
already a huge success.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Black
The super premium vodka which is triple distilled for a smooth mellow taste.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Mule
The refreshing combination of Smirnoff Vodka, ginger beer and lime, based on a famous cocktail and launched in 1994.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Blue
From the original international vodka, Smirnoff Red. Triple distilled for purity and strength.
www.smirnoff.com
Tanqueray
The premium gin, the leading imported gin brand in the USA and selling more than 19 million bottles every year.
www.tanqueray.com
Guinness Draught
Launched in 1961 and now enjoyed in more than 70 countries.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Draught Extra Cold
Launched in 1998, Guinness Draught served at a spine tingling four degrees celsius as opposed to the usual six degrees.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Draught in Bottles
The revolutionary new 'rocket widget' now enables drinkers to enjoy Guinness Draught 'straight from the neck' for the first time. Guinness Draught in Bottles was launched in 1999.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Draught in Cans
The first packaged beer to use widget technology, which has sold more than 800 million cans since its launch in 1989 and is now available in more than 70 countries.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Extra Stout
Enjoyed mainly in Europe in bottles and cans.
Guinness Foreign Extra Stout
The brand famous throughout Africa, Asia and the Caribbean.
www.guinness.com
Harp
The pioneer lager launched in Ireland and the UK in the early 1960s, now enjoyed in more than 30 countries.
Kilkenny Irish Beer
The premium Irish red beer enjoyed from Ireland to the Far East in more than 60 countries.
Red Stripe
Jamaica's best-selling lager, which is enjoyed throughout the Caribbean and other export markets.
www.redstripebeer.com
Barton & Guestier
Barton & Guestier, founded in 1725, is the world's leading export brand of fine French wines. Producing more than 40 wines from the main French growing regions, B&G exports more than two million cases of wine per year.
www.barton-guestier.com
Beaulieu Vineyard
The Beaulieu Vineyard brand is a century old and has become one of the Napa Valley's leading premium wines.
Blossom Hill
This range of wines offers some of the best of California.
Piat d'Or
France's leading exported single wine brand.
Moêt & Chandon
Founded in 1743, owned by Moët Hennessy, Moët & Chandon is the undisputed world leader in champagne. UDV has an extensive international trading and equity partnership with Moët Hennessy.
Sterling Vineyards
Sterling Vineyards produced the first vintage-dated Napa Valley Merlot in 1969, and the name has been synonymous with innovation and timeless quality ever since.
www.sterlingvineyards.com
The Gleneagles Hotel
Gleneagles is set in its own 850 acre estate, surrounded by breathtaking
Perthshire scenery. The public rooms are elegant and spacious, the guest
rooms luxurious. With its three 18-hole championship golf courses
(including the Ryder Cup Venue for 2014, the PGA Centenary Course) and a
myriad of other sporting opportunities, it welcomes visitors throughout the
year and is also a centre for top-level conferences.
Gleneagles, which holds the Automobile Association's supreme accolade of
Five Red Stars, is one hour's drive north of Edinburgh and Glasgow airports
and has its own railway station.
I mercati di riferimento sono:
North America is Diageo’s most important market, contributing around 35% of operating profit. With the acquisition of Seagram spirits and wines, we are putting in place a more efficient sales and distribution process across this market. Our aim is to establish strong relationships with dedicated sales teams within each of our distributors. This is our strategy for next generation growth. It is supported by new web-based technology to help anticipate customers’ needs and speed up delivery times.
Great Britain is Diageo’s second most important market. It had a very strong year, with organic operating profit growth of 30%. Focused marketing led to volume growth across both global and local priority brands.
Ireland is also a major market for Diageo, and home to two of our eight global priority brands, Guinness and Baileys. The Guinness Storehouse in Dublin is now the number one tourist attraction in the country.
Spain is Diageo’s fourth major market, and the most important market for one of our global priority brands J&B Scotch whisky. Cacique rum, from Seagram, has now joined Cardhu single malt as a local priority brand for Spain.
Il business di Diageo è l'esempio di ciò che mi interessa. Io investo per il lungo periodo (più di 5 anni). Il business che mi interessa possedere è:
SEMPLICE: devo comprenderlo. La produzione deve usare tecnologia per ottenere un prodotto a basso contenuto tecnologico, piuttosto che il contrario.
MARCHI FORTI: l'acquisto della gente non deve essere basato sul prezzo, ma sul marchio.
PREVEDIBILE: l'andamento del business deve essere prevedibile nel senso che non deve essere condizionato troppo dall'andamento dell'economia o da evoluzioni tecnologiche.
Come conseguenza di questi punti la società che mi interessa deve avere:
- una crescita REGOLARE di utili e fatturato
- un ROE elevato; e comunque una redditività degli asset elevata, poi il livello del ROE dipenderà anche dalla leva finanziaria
- MARGINI elevati; una società che ha un margine netto del 10% non va in perdita alla prima crisi economica come una che ha un margine netto dell'1%
- PAYOUT basso perchè preferisco che gli utili se li tengano loro per acquistare azioni proprie, altri marchi o business piuttosto che darli a me facendoli tassare due volte... e poi io saprei usarli meglio di loro?
- poco o niente indebitamento.
La cosa importante è la serie storica dei dati; non prendo in considerazione roe, indebitamento, margini, ecc. solo dell'ultimo anno, ma anche la media degli ultimi anni (da 5 a 10).
Ritorniamo a Diageo. Ha raggiunto un accordo per la vendita di Burger King (anche se con lo sconto), ha venduto lo scorso anno Pillsbury e contemporaneamente ha acquistato con P. Ricard gli alcolici di Seagram. In poche parole si vuole concentrare sugli alcolici.
Con i dati di bilancio ho dovuto fare un pò di salti mortali perchè:
- i principi contabili inglesi differiscono parecchio da quelli americani o internazionali e su Diageo hanno un effetto notevole a causa del modo in cui è nata (dalla fusione di GrandMet e Guinness).
- il numero di acquisizioni e la loro importanza è sempre molto elevata in Diageo andando ad influenzare notevolmente i risultati e le valutazioni.
Quindi per non fare casino ho preso come riferimento i dati inglesi e metto qui una breve serie.
ROE Redditività del c.p. RN/PNm 28,91% 24,77%
VALORI PER TITOLO 30/06/02 30/06/01 30/06/00
BVPS Book Value 1,809 1,535 1,388
EPS Ernings 0,487 0,363 0,288
SPS Sales 3,400 3,793 3,498
NFPPS Net Financial Position -1,514 -1,552 -1,534
Tassi di crescita
Book Value 17,85% 10,53%
Earnings 34,36% 26,10%
Sales -10,36% 8,43%
Debt/equity 0.84
A 6.57 pound (657 pence) ho acquistato con questi multipli:
P/BV Price/Book value 3,63
P/E Price/Earnings 13,48
P/S Price/Sales 1,93
Come dicevo le continue variazioni dell'area di consolidamento e utili staordinari influiscono sui risultati. Quest'anno infatti la crescita organica non è stata del 34% ma del 13%.
Il prossimo anno se viene completata la cessione di Burger king (e deconsolidata) e completata l'integrazione di Seagram, mi aspetto ancora una crescita (salvo elementi eccezionali). Senza contare che Diageo si sta focalizzando sui premium drinks che è il settore a più alta marginalità, quindi una volta completata la ristrutturazione del gruppo dovrebbe essere ancora più redditizia.
C'è da evidenziare comunque che secondo gli US GAAP il PN di quest'anno è circa il doppio e l'utile netto circa il 50% più alto mentre risulta circa il 50% più basso dell'utile dello scorso anno.
Perchè ho ritenuto conveniente questo prezzo:
- si trova nella parte bassa del range di P/E nel quale è oscillata negli ultimi anni.
- comprare con un P/E intorno a 15 (togliendo alcuni elementi straordinari) tra questo anno e il prossimo equivale ad avere uno yeld del 6.66% annuo che può rivalutarsi ad un tasso di crescita composto compreso tra il 5 e il 10% annuo (la crescita organica di Diageo). In più protetto dall'inflazione in quanto con uno scenario tale Diageo sarà probabilmente in grado di aumentare i prezzi proteggendo i margini.
- non credo che possa quotare multipli tanto più bassi (a meno che non si ritrovi ad avere grossi problemi) per via del numero e dell'importanza dei marchi che possiede.
Diageo è il big degli spirits ed è inglese.
I marchi di proprietà sono:
Archers
Archers is based on a traditional schnapps recipe mellowed with the delicious taste of peaches. Launched in 1986 and sold in more than 60 countries.
www.archers.com
Baileys
The world's number one liqueur, launched in 1974 and by far the biggest selling cream liqueur with sales in excess of 50 million bottles. The brand continues to grow and in 1998 was the top selling spirits brand in the UK at Christmas.
www.baileys.com
Bell's Scotch Whisky
The best selling Scotch Whisky in the UK and South Africa.
Cacique Rum
Cacique, a unique blend of seven Venezuelan aged rums, is the number one selling rum in Venezuela and Spain.
Captain Morgan Black Label Rum
Captain Morgan Black Label rum offers a unique depth of taste. Its dark, full-bodied colour and distinctive rich, smooth taste are unmistakable.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan Original Spiced Rum
A favourite world-wide, Captain Morgan Original Spiced Rum is the taste that started it all: deliciously different and exceptionally smooth.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan's Parrot Bay Rum
With Captain Morgan's Parrot Bay, you're enjoying a taste as unexpectedly refreshing as a cool breeze off clear waters.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan Private Stock Rum
The finest of Captain Morgan's rums and the product of 300 years of rum-making tradition, Private Stock is an extremely smooth, rich blend of Puerto Rican rum and warm, mellow island spices.
www.rum.com
Captain Morgan Silver Spiced Rum
Like Captain Morgan Original Spiced, Silver Spiced is a distinctive blend of rich Puerto Rican rum and tropical spice.
www.rum.com
Crown Royal Canadian Whisky
The world's leading premiuim Canadian Whisky, Crown Royal is known for its rich flavor and pleasant bouquet, making it an ideal spirit served on the rocks, straight up or in a variety of cocktails.
www.crownroyal.com
Crown Royal Special Reserve Canadian Whisky
Crown Royal's Master Blender created this special bottling from a select number of extra special whiskies that had been set aside specifically for this use.
www.crownroyal.com
The Classic Malts
Cragganmore, Dalwhinnie, Glenkinchie, Lagavulin, Oban, Talisker. A collection of the finest examples of single malt whiskies, representing each of Scotland's classic distillery regions.
Cuervo
Cuervo is the number one premium tequila in the world", selling approximately 4.3 million cases last year.
www.josecuervo.com
Gilbey's
The world's number four international gin brand, selling more than 31 million bottles every year across 150 markets.
Gordon's
The world's leading international gin brand, selling more than 64 million bottles every year in 160 markets.
Hennessy
Created in 1765 and owned by Moët Hennessy. Hennessy is the world leader in cognac. UDV has an extensive international trading and equity partnership with Moët Hennessy.
Johnnie Walker Red Label
The world's leading Scotch Whisky brand, selling approximately 79 million bottles every year.
www.johnniewalker.com
Johnnie Walker Black Label
The unique 12 year old Scotch whisky, selling approximately 37 million bottles every year.
www.johnniewalker.com
Johnnie Walker Gold Label
The golden Scotch whisky, blended from a selection of rare aged malts, each a minimum of 18 years old.
www.johnniewalker.com
Johnnie Walker Blue Label
A brand of exceptional taste and quality blended from a selection of the rarest, oldest malts
www.johnniewalker.com
J&B Rare
Number one Scotch whisky in Europe, selling more than 27 million bottles a year in Spain alone.
www.jbscotch.com
Myers's Original Dark Jamaican Rum
Myers's Original Dark Jamaican Rum is a premium full-bodied, dark rum that has been produced on the island of Jamaica since 1879 from pure sugarcane molasses and natural yeasts.
Pimms
The secret blend of gin, herbs, spices and fruit extracts that epitomises the English summer.
Seagram's 7 Crown
Since its introduction in 1934, Seagram's 7 Crown has sold more than 4440 million bottles, giving it the distinction of being consumed more often than any other spirits brand in the United States.
www.seagram7.com
Seagram's VO
Created in 1911 by Joseph E. Seagram to commemorate the marriage of his grandson, Thomas, by sharing his "Very Own" blend of fine whiskies that are consistently smooth, well-rounded and a testimony to the fine art of whisky blending.
www.vowhisky.com
Smirnoff Red
The world's leading international vodka and second best selling spirits brand, selling more than 180 million bottles every year.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Ice
With its classic citrus flavour, Smirnoff Ice was launched in 1999 and is
already a huge success.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Black
The super premium vodka which is triple distilled for a smooth mellow taste.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Mule
The refreshing combination of Smirnoff Vodka, ginger beer and lime, based on a famous cocktail and launched in 1994.
www.smirnoff.com
Smirnoff Blue
From the original international vodka, Smirnoff Red. Triple distilled for purity and strength.
www.smirnoff.com
Tanqueray
The premium gin, the leading imported gin brand in the USA and selling more than 19 million bottles every year.
www.tanqueray.com
Guinness Draught
Launched in 1961 and now enjoyed in more than 70 countries.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Draught Extra Cold
Launched in 1998, Guinness Draught served at a spine tingling four degrees celsius as opposed to the usual six degrees.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Draught in Bottles
The revolutionary new 'rocket widget' now enables drinkers to enjoy Guinness Draught 'straight from the neck' for the first time. Guinness Draught in Bottles was launched in 1999.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Draught in Cans
The first packaged beer to use widget technology, which has sold more than 800 million cans since its launch in 1989 and is now available in more than 70 countries.
www.guinness.com
Guinness Extra Stout
Enjoyed mainly in Europe in bottles and cans.
Guinness Foreign Extra Stout
The brand famous throughout Africa, Asia and the Caribbean.
www.guinness.com
Harp
The pioneer lager launched in Ireland and the UK in the early 1960s, now enjoyed in more than 30 countries.
Kilkenny Irish Beer
The premium Irish red beer enjoyed from Ireland to the Far East in more than 60 countries.
Red Stripe
Jamaica's best-selling lager, which is enjoyed throughout the Caribbean and other export markets.
www.redstripebeer.com
Barton & Guestier
Barton & Guestier, founded in 1725, is the world's leading export brand of fine French wines. Producing more than 40 wines from the main French growing regions, B&G exports more than two million cases of wine per year.
www.barton-guestier.com
Beaulieu Vineyard
The Beaulieu Vineyard brand is a century old and has become one of the Napa Valley's leading premium wines.
Blossom Hill
This range of wines offers some of the best of California.
Piat d'Or
France's leading exported single wine brand.
Moêt & Chandon
Founded in 1743, owned by Moët Hennessy, Moët & Chandon is the undisputed world leader in champagne. UDV has an extensive international trading and equity partnership with Moët Hennessy.
Sterling Vineyards
Sterling Vineyards produced the first vintage-dated Napa Valley Merlot in 1969, and the name has been synonymous with innovation and timeless quality ever since.
www.sterlingvineyards.com
The Gleneagles Hotel
Gleneagles is set in its own 850 acre estate, surrounded by breathtaking
Perthshire scenery. The public rooms are elegant and spacious, the guest
rooms luxurious. With its three 18-hole championship golf courses
(including the Ryder Cup Venue for 2014, the PGA Centenary Course) and a
myriad of other sporting opportunities, it welcomes visitors throughout the
year and is also a centre for top-level conferences.
Gleneagles, which holds the Automobile Association's supreme accolade of
Five Red Stars, is one hour's drive north of Edinburgh and Glasgow airports
and has its own railway station.
I mercati di riferimento sono:
North America is Diageo’s most important market, contributing around 35% of operating profit. With the acquisition of Seagram spirits and wines, we are putting in place a more efficient sales and distribution process across this market. Our aim is to establish strong relationships with dedicated sales teams within each of our distributors. This is our strategy for next generation growth. It is supported by new web-based technology to help anticipate customers’ needs and speed up delivery times.
Great Britain is Diageo’s second most important market. It had a very strong year, with organic operating profit growth of 30%. Focused marketing led to volume growth across both global and local priority brands.
Ireland is also a major market for Diageo, and home to two of our eight global priority brands, Guinness and Baileys. The Guinness Storehouse in Dublin is now the number one tourist attraction in the country.
Spain is Diageo’s fourth major market, and the most important market for one of our global priority brands J&B Scotch whisky. Cacique rum, from Seagram, has now joined Cardhu single malt as a local priority brand for Spain.
Il business di Diageo è l'esempio di ciò che mi interessa. Io investo per il lungo periodo (più di 5 anni). Il business che mi interessa possedere è:
SEMPLICE: devo comprenderlo. La produzione deve usare tecnologia per ottenere un prodotto a basso contenuto tecnologico, piuttosto che il contrario.
MARCHI FORTI: l'acquisto della gente non deve essere basato sul prezzo, ma sul marchio.
PREVEDIBILE: l'andamento del business deve essere prevedibile nel senso che non deve essere condizionato troppo dall'andamento dell'economia o da evoluzioni tecnologiche.
Come conseguenza di questi punti la società che mi interessa deve avere:
- una crescita REGOLARE di utili e fatturato
- un ROE elevato; e comunque una redditività degli asset elevata, poi il livello del ROE dipenderà anche dalla leva finanziaria
- MARGINI elevati; una società che ha un margine netto del 10% non va in perdita alla prima crisi economica come una che ha un margine netto dell'1%
- PAYOUT basso perchè preferisco che gli utili se li tengano loro per acquistare azioni proprie, altri marchi o business piuttosto che darli a me facendoli tassare due volte... e poi io saprei usarli meglio di loro?
- poco o niente indebitamento.
La cosa importante è la serie storica dei dati; non prendo in considerazione roe, indebitamento, margini, ecc. solo dell'ultimo anno, ma anche la media degli ultimi anni (da 5 a 10).
Ritorniamo a Diageo. Ha raggiunto un accordo per la vendita di Burger King (anche se con lo sconto), ha venduto lo scorso anno Pillsbury e contemporaneamente ha acquistato con P. Ricard gli alcolici di Seagram. In poche parole si vuole concentrare sugli alcolici.
Con i dati di bilancio ho dovuto fare un pò di salti mortali perchè:
- i principi contabili inglesi differiscono parecchio da quelli americani o internazionali e su Diageo hanno un effetto notevole a causa del modo in cui è nata (dalla fusione di GrandMet e Guinness).
- il numero di acquisizioni e la loro importanza è sempre molto elevata in Diageo andando ad influenzare notevolmente i risultati e le valutazioni.
Quindi per non fare casino ho preso come riferimento i dati inglesi e metto qui una breve serie.
ROE Redditività del c.p. RN/PNm 28,91% 24,77%
VALORI PER TITOLO 30/06/02 30/06/01 30/06/00
BVPS Book Value 1,809 1,535 1,388
EPS Ernings 0,487 0,363 0,288
SPS Sales 3,400 3,793 3,498
NFPPS Net Financial Position -1,514 -1,552 -1,534
Tassi di crescita
Book Value 17,85% 10,53%
Earnings 34,36% 26,10%
Sales -10,36% 8,43%
Debt/equity 0.84
A 6.57 pound (657 pence) ho acquistato con questi multipli:
P/BV Price/Book value 3,63
P/E Price/Earnings 13,48
P/S Price/Sales 1,93
Come dicevo le continue variazioni dell'area di consolidamento e utili staordinari influiscono sui risultati. Quest'anno infatti la crescita organica non è stata del 34% ma del 13%.
Il prossimo anno se viene completata la cessione di Burger king (e deconsolidata) e completata l'integrazione di Seagram, mi aspetto ancora una crescita (salvo elementi eccezionali). Senza contare che Diageo si sta focalizzando sui premium drinks che è il settore a più alta marginalità, quindi una volta completata la ristrutturazione del gruppo dovrebbe essere ancora più redditizia.
C'è da evidenziare comunque che secondo gli US GAAP il PN di quest'anno è circa il doppio e l'utile netto circa il 50% più alto mentre risulta circa il 50% più basso dell'utile dello scorso anno.
Perchè ho ritenuto conveniente questo prezzo:
- si trova nella parte bassa del range di P/E nel quale è oscillata negli ultimi anni.
- comprare con un P/E intorno a 15 (togliendo alcuni elementi straordinari) tra questo anno e il prossimo equivale ad avere uno yeld del 6.66% annuo che può rivalutarsi ad un tasso di crescita composto compreso tra il 5 e il 10% annuo (la crescita organica di Diageo). In più protetto dall'inflazione in quanto con uno scenario tale Diageo sarà probabilmente in grado di aumentare i prezzi proteggendo i margini.
- non credo che possa quotare multipli tanto più bassi (a meno che non si ritrovi ad avere grossi problemi) per via del numero e dell'importanza dei marchi che possiede.
