By Staff Writer on Jun 20, 2016 at 3:50 pm EST
In a research note today, Jefferies cut its price objective on Pfizer Inc. (NYSE
FE) stock by $2 to $40, due to the waning GEPxit drivers. The sell-side firm also removed PFE stock from its Franchise Pick list, but kept its Buy rating on it.
Analyst Jeffrey Holford held that the debate on whether to separate Global Established Pharma (GEP)—the GEPxit—is getting under full swing; only there will be no referendum for the investors. The arguments against the GEPxit may have strengthened, which alter the probability away from the firm’s prior assumption of a near certainty.
The ApproachingGEPxitDecision
The management has once again committed to making a decision on whether or not to separate the GEP business—now known internally as Pfizer Essential Health—from the rest of the group, called Pfizer Innovative Health now, by the year end. If it is decided that GEP will split off, it is expected that this will occur by the end of fiscal year 2017 (FY17), Mr. Holford said.
GEPxitPros and Cons
The internal debate at Pfizer, as well as with the investors, is anticipated to heat up over the next three to six months. The company’s management has stated that the decision will focus on whether the businesses can perform well as standalone entities, and if any trapped value can be unlocked efficiently.
Mr. Holford mentioned that arguments for a GEPxit include potential valuation uplift, stronger ownership and motivation for GEP employees, potential operational improvements, and improved access to capital for research and development (R&D) purposes. More, this also comprises a freer mandate to aggressively challenge IP—related to biosimilarsand potential disappointment for many investors, if it does not go ahead.
Arguments against the GEPxit are the lack of an inversion, declining valuation comparables (comp) in the specialty/ generics segment, potential operational dis-synergies, and an increased stock price, against which to compare the perceived sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The prospective operational dis-synergies quantified by the management are about $0.02 of earnings, but they are highly debated by the investors.
Valuation
The firm presented its updated SOTP valuation of $42 after it modified its projections. Mr. Holford believes that the comps of specialty/ generics companies, preferred by some investors, ignores the dividend yield component of a potential GEP valuation, which he thinks supports a valuation of $15.32 per share.
However, looking at the pros and cons presented above, the argument is now more finely balanced, and the firm has lowered its target price to reflect a 50% probability of a split. The price objective is based on 50:50 blend of SOTP and price-to-earnings (PE) valuation
Editing by Haseem uz Zaman;
http://www.bidnessetc.com/70598-pfizer-pfe-jefferies-slashes-target-price-waning-gepxit-drivers/
Upgrades/Downgrades
Updated: Jun 20, 2016 04:25 p.m. ET
Upgrades
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Yelp YELP Deutsche Bank Hold >> Buy $26 >> $33
Centene CNC Barclays Equal Weight >> Overweight $76 >> $82
Symantec SYMC UBS Sell >> Buy $16 >> $24
Spirit Airlines SAVE Credit Suisse Neutral >> Outperform
Catalent CTLT BofA/Merrill Neutral >> Buy
Under Armour UA Buckingham Research Neutral >> Buy
Murphy Oil MUR Raymond James Underperform >> Mkt Perform
Calamos Asset CLMS Keefe Bruyette Underperform >> Mkt Perform
Inmarsat IMASY Citigroup Neutral >> Buy
Gran Tierra Energy GTE RBC Capital Mkts Outperform >> Top Pick $4.75 >> $6
Downgrades
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
UGI Corp UGI Barclays Equal Weight >> Underweight $39 >> $42
TC Pipelines TCP Barclays Equal Weight >> Underweight $53 >> $49
PennTex Midstream Partners, LP PTXP Barclays Overweight >> Equal Weight $13 >> $18
EnLink Midstream ENLC Barclays Overweight >> Equal Weight $15 >> $16
Enable Midstream Partners ENBL Barclays Equal Weight >> Underweight $13 >> $14
SolarCity SCTY Barclays Equal Weight >> Underweight $20
Greenbrier GBX Longbow Buy >> Neutral
Trinity Industries TRN Longbow Buy >> Neutral
Pembina Pipeline PBA Credit Suisse Outperform >> Neutral
Perrigo PRGO Argus Buy >> Hold
Express Scripts ESRX Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight >> Underweight
CVS Health CVS Morgan Stanley Overweight >> Equal-Weight
Next NXGPF Berenberg Buy >> Hold
Press Ganey PGND Goldman Buy >> Neutral
Eagle Pharma EGRX Mizuho Buy >> Neutral $66 >> $47
Coverage Initiated
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
Reata Pharmaceuticals RETA Citigroup Buy
US Foods USFD Deutsche Bank Buy $28
Cotiviti COTV Barclays Overweight $22
Mobile TeleSystems MBT Credit Suisse Outperform
Boingo Wireless WIFI Lake Street Buy $12
US Foods USFD Credit Suisse Outperform $29
Cotiviti COTV Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight $20
US Foods USFD Morgan Stanley Equal-Weight $28
Heat Biologics HTBX ROTH Capital Buy
GMS GMS SunTrust Buy $28
US Foods USFD Wells Fargo Outperform
US Foods USFD Goldman Neutral $28
US Foods USFD JP Morgan Overweight $27.5
Midland States Bancorp MSBI Keefe Bruyette Outperform
Cotiviti COTV Goldman Buy $25
Cotiviti COTV Credit Suisse Outperform $25
Cotiviti COTV SunTrust Buy $24
Cotiviti COTV JP Morgan Overweight $22
Sysco SYY BofA/Merrill Neutral $52
GMS GMS Raymond James Outperform
Advisory Board ABCO Credit Suisse Outperform
BMC Stock Holdings BMCH Credit Suisse Outperform
GMS GMS Credit Suisse Outperform
Westport Fuel Systems WPRT Rodman & Renshaw Buy $5
Cotiviti COTV Citigroup Neutral
Motorola Solutions MSI Citigroup Neutral
Corning GLW Citigroup Buy
US Foods USFD Citigroup Buy
GMS GMS Robert W. Baird Neutral $25
Cotiviti COTV Robert W. Baird Outperform $24
Tyler Tech TYL Pacific Crest Overweight
Great Ajax AJX Piper Jaffray Overweight
Theravance Biopharma TBPH Guggenheim Buy $30
Reata Pharmaceuticals RETA Piper Jaffray Overweight $33
Cotiviti COTV RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $25
ProQR Therapeutics PRQR Chardan Capital Markets Neutral $4.5
Quorum QHC Mizuho Neutral $11.25
Coverage Resumed
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
GenVec GNVC Rodman & Renshaw Buy $2.3
Chesapeake Energy CHK Jefferies Underperform $3
Coverage Reiterated/Price Target Changed *
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
Albemarle ALB Deutsche Bank Buy $84 >> $94
Infinera INFN MKM Partners Neutral $15 >> $13
Theravance Biopharma TBPH Leerink Partners Outperform $26 >> $29
Patterson-UTI PTEN Scotia Howard Weil Sector Perform $20 >> $22
LifeLock LOCK Needham Buy $16 >> $18
Amber Road AMBR Needham Buy $7 >> $11
Pfizer PFE Jefferies Buy $42 >> $40
Charter Comm CHTR Wunderlich Buy $254 >> $280
Netflix NFLX Nomura Buy $125 >> $115
Pinnacle West PNW RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform $69 >> $73
Escalade ESCA Wunderlich Buy $18 >> $16
VeriFone PAY Imperial Capital Outperform $32 >> $24
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