DOW Chemical

lorenzomarco

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Chiedo pareri !! Vorrei entrare in acquisto in apertura su qto titolo (DOW CHEMICAL)). Secondo me buona opportunità!

E secondo Voi?
 
La situazione è molto complessa. Lo sgambetto del Kuwait impedisce a Dow la sua trasformazione e scelta strategica di abbandonare un business a basso margine (che dovevano vendere al Kuwait) e spostarsi su uno con margine più alto (acquisizione Rohm&Hass).

Servono finanziamenti e adesso sono durissimi da reperire, per mantenere l'attuale dividendo il managment è chiamato a una sfida durissima.
Ovvio che è scesa tantissimo, ma a meno di fare del trading molto disciplinato io aspetterei la prossima trimestrale per fare un po' di conti.

Intanto ecco notizie fresche:):

Dow’s Credit Downgrade May Pressure Price on Rohm & Haas Deal

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Dow Chemical Co.’s lenders may intensify pressure on the company to renegotiate its $15.4 billion takeover of specialty-chemicals maker Rohm & Haas Co. after credit-rating cuts yesterday that would increase the cost of the deal.

Dow’s ratings were lowered by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service after Kuwait scrapped the purchase of a $9 billion stake in the Midland, Michigan-based company’s plastics unit. The deal would have provided Dow, the largest U.S. chemical maker, with about $7 billion after tax to help pay for the pending acquisition of Rohm & Haas, S&P said in a statement.

Dow is the latest commodity producer to see expansion plans threatened amid a global recession that’s halted building and manufacturing. Nucor Corp., Teck Cominco Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group have all put expansion plans on hold in recent months.

The purchase of Rohm & Haas “appears extremely overpriced given a deep recession and lack of cash from the Kuwait deal,” Citigroup Global Markets analyst P.J. Juvekar said in a research note yesterday. “Dow should be looking to protect its shareholders by cutting the deal at a lower price or walking away by paying a break-up fee.”

In addition to the Kuwait investment, Dow Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris also planned to use a $13 billion bridge loan, a $3 billion equity investment by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and a $1 billion investment by the Kuwait Investment Authority to pay for Rohm & Haas.

Credit Downgrades

The downgrades yesterday could cost the company, or the 18 banks providing the bridge loan, hundreds of millions of dollars more next year if the deal goes through.

It “substantially increases the likelihood that Dow’s credit profile will be weakened in any reasonable scenario,” Moody’s analyst John Rogers said in the statement.

S&P yesterday reduced Dow’s rating to BBB from A-. Moody’s reduced Dow’s rating one grade to Baa1 from A3, the seventh- highest investment grade, and kept the company under review for possible further reductions.,

BBB-rated bonds are trading at an average spread of 1.02 percentage points more than debt ranked two steps higher, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. That’s about $133 million on Dow’s $13 billion loan.

Kuwaiti Opposition

“The downgrade reflects the likelihood that the political situation in Kuwait will make it more difficult to successfully complete the K-Dow transaction even at a lower price,” Moody’s said.

The Kuwaiti government had been under pressure from opposition lawmakers to scrap the joint venture, which would have been called K-Dow Petrochemicals. The lawmakers said it was overpriced, and some members of parliament threatened to publicly question Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah, a nephew of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, Kuwait’s ruler.

Dow has a “negative” outlook at both ratings companies, and an additional cut to below investment grade could cost another 5.7 percentage points in annual interest expense, or $741 million on Dow’s $13 billion loan, Merrill Lynch data show.

The lending group agreed on the loan terms for Dow on Sept. 8, one week before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. intensified the credit crisis and widened spreads on corporate debt to records.

Yesterday, shares of both Dow and Rohm & Haas plunged amid concern the Kuwait deal’s collapse threatened the merger.

Dow and Rohm & Haas have said the deal didn’t depend on closing the Kuwaiti purchase. Still, without funds from Kuwait, financing “would be difficult to come by in a tight credit market,” Hassan Ahmed, a New York- based analyst at HSBC Securities, said in a telephone interview yesterday from Lahore, Pakistan.

Dow plummeted $3.60, or 19 percent, to $15.32 in New York Stock Exchange trading, the largest drop since July 1980, when Bloomberg data on the company begins.

Rohm & Haas fell $10.22, or 16 percent, to $53.34, the largest decline since July 2000.
 
Salve a tutti!Anche io ho deciso di seguire il titolo..ecco alcune analisi che ho trovato..che ne pensate cmq?:confused:

Dow Chemical has a current Overall Rating of D (Negative). Power Rating (34) is low; appreciation potential (33) is low. Relative to the S&P 500 Composite, Dow Chemical has moderate Value characteristics -- its appeal is likely to be to investors heavily oriented toward Income. DOW is of low investment quality. Current annual total return performance of 28.0% is at the upper quartile. Current 5-year total return performance of 6.4% is slightly above median. Over the full time period, Dow Chemical's stock price performance has been significantly below market. Dow Chemical's current technical position is very weak. Dow Chemical's Power Rating is 34. DOW's earnings estimates have fallen very significantly in recent months. Estimates for December, 2008 fell -9.8% this month; for December, 2009 they fell -19.0%. Dow Chemical's Plastics, Resins, Elastomers comparison group is in a slightly weakened position currently. Dow Chemical's return on equity has improved very significantly since 1998 even as it experienced a very sharp decline after the 2005 high. Dow Chemical's historical income statement growth has been in line with balance sheet growth. Revenue growth has paralleled asset growth; earnings growth has paralleled equity growth. Dow Chemical's current Price Target is $22 (-65% from the 2007 Target of $62 but +11% from the 12/26/08 price of $19.34). This dramatic fall in the Target is the result of a +17% increase in the equity base and a -70% decrease in the price/equity multiple
 
comprate a 15,4 usd


speriamo ..... che non crolli nche oggi:rolleyes:
 
Quante ne hai prese?Non era forse meglio attendere ancora?Anche se tratta a prezzi aparentemente da "sconto"..
 
Bisogna che si calmino le acque e si chiarisca il deal con Rohm, il titolo verrà sballotato su e giù dalle news in questo periodo.

E' difficile valutare se tutte le news negative siano già prezzate nel titolo, la capitalizzazione attuale è 14.3 miliardi, addirittura meno del deal con Rohm&Haas attualmente prezzato 15.4B $.

Aspetto la trimestrale, Dow nei primi 9 mesi del 2008 ha speso 2 miliardi fra buyback e dividendi, personalmente credo che la cosa sia insostenibile..
 

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Aspetto la trimestrale, Dow nei primi 9 mesi del 2008 ha speso 2 miliardi fra buyback e dividendi, personalmente credo che la cosa sia insostenibile..

Dow CEO cools his dividend defense;credit rating top priority

Last update: 7:50 a.m. EST Jan. 27, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dow Chemcial Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Andrew Liveris said Tuesday the comapny's low stock price is a clear statement the market believes its dividend is too high. However, instead of defending the dividend from a cut as in past interviews, Liveris said Dow's main priority is its investment-grade rating with the credit agencies, and that it would do everything to maintain it. "Things change, and we're living in an amazing period," Liveris said in an interview with CNBC. Shares of Dow are down more than 60% since mid-September as investors worried over the chemical giant's abilitiy to juggle a $15 billion acquisition of Rohm & Haas in the wake of tighter credit markets. On Monday, Dow put the acquisition on hold, but shares failed to rally, slipping 7.6% to $13.24.
 
Dow Chemical Reduces Dividend to 15 Cents a Share


Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Dow Chemical Co. cut its quarterly dividend to 15 cents a share.
The dividend is payable April 30 to holders of record as of March 31, Midland, Michigan-based Dow said today in a statement distributed by PR Newswire.


Aspettiamo il rendiconto finanziario per fare qualche conto; certo il managment doveva essere più tempestivo e prudente nel 2008.
Prima dell'annuncio di oggi lo yield era al 17%, a sottolineare che qgrossi errori di previsione sono stati fatti. Il titolo resta molto depresso, la capitalizzazione poco più di 9 miliardi.
 
Poco più di 7$ ora.. pian piano il dividend yeld torna vicino a 10%. Prevedono futuri nuovi grossi tagli o siamo in presenza di ghiotta occasione ?
 
Quindi , alla fine il deal si farà , e proprio nei termini previsti.
6.45$ adesso , entrato per cassetto.. anche col "minidividendo" di soli 15 cents/qtr , siamo davvero vicini al 10%.. anche se ovviamente nessuno può sapere se verrà mantenuto almeno questo.
 
8.25$.
Sembra che si sia risvegliata , e si torna a parlare di possibile deal con kuwait.
 
up! di strada ne ha fatta parecchia!
 
10/29/2010 - 10:05am

Citigroup Inc. left its price target unchanged for Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) Friday, at $34, with a Buy rating.

"We believe DOW put to rest any operational doubts that investors had after outages impacted 2Q results," wrote Citigroup's P.J. Juvekar in a research note. "Overall volume growth of 14% was impressive and was inline with DD's results earlier this week. Overall EBITDA rose 23% but was up 30% in the performance businesses, though most of that increase came from Performance Products (polyurethanes, epoxies, emulsions) which tend to be more commoditized. In our view, 3Q results were driven primarily by upstream businesses.
"While DOW enjoys a margin advantage afforded by shale gas in the US, the same dynamic has also driven propylene prices higher," the analyst continued. "However, DOW seems to be getting a handle on its propylene supply. The start-up of the Petrologistics propane-topropylene unit will reduce DOW's open market propylene purchases by over 25%. DOW is also starting up a lower-cost HPPO (hydrogen peroxide to propylene oxide) plant in Thailand next year, which will improve logistics.
"We model normalized earnings of $3.50 vs. DOW's goal of $4.00-$4.50. We see significant upside risk from current levels; even using our $3.50 normalized EPS estimate, we derive a normalized valuation of $40-$45 per share by the 2012/13 time frame. We are raising our 4Q10 earnings estimate due in part to higher expected EBITDA in Basic Plastics. Our target price of $34 remains unchanged," Juvekar concluded.
Dow Chemical has a potential upside of 6.7% based on a current price of $31.08 and an average consensus analyst price target of $33.17.
Dow Chemical is currently above its 50-day moving average (MA) of $27.36 and above its 200-day of $27.72.

Citigroup Inc. Reiterates PT & Buy Rating for Dow Chemical Co. (C,DOW) | Comtex SmarTrend
 
per me questa fa un 2015 da paura

Dow Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Results

Earnings Per Share Rise 31 Percent vs. 4Q13 on an Adjusted Basis, Reaching $0.85, or $0.63 on an As-Reported Basis;
Company Delivers Record 4Q and Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA with Increases across All Operating Segments;
Reports Ninth Consecutive Quarter of Year-Over-Year Adjusted EPS, EBITDA and EBITDA Margin Increases.

2014 Full-Year Highlights

Dow reported full-year 2014 earnings of $3.11 per share on an adjusted basis, or as-reported earnings of $2.87 per share. This compares with adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share in the prior year – an increase of 25 percent – or $3.68 per share on an as-reported basis.

Adjusted EBITDA rose $975 million versus the prior year, reaching a full-year record at $9.3 billion, or $8.9 billion on an as-reported basis. Adjusted EBITDA grew in all operating segments. The largest increase was achieved by Performance Plastics, which grew adjusted EBITDA more than $460 million, reflecting the Company’s differentiated product portfolio, diverse markets and global reach. Adjusted EBITDA also rose in Performance Materials & Chemicals – up $225 million – as a result of ongoing steps to enhance productivity.

The Company expanded adjusted EBITDA margins 140 basis points, with increases reported in all operating segments. Margin expansion was led by Consumer Solutions (up 214 basis points), Performance Plastics (up 168 basis points), and Infrastructure Solutions (up 141 basis points) on increasing demand, productivity improvements and strategic end-market alignment.
Sales were $58.2 billion, up 2 percent versus the prior year. Increases were reported in all geographic areas on an adjusted basis(5). Sales grew in North America, with revenue in the United States up 4 percent due to sales growth across all operating segments. Emerging geographic regions increased sales 4 percent and represented 35 percent of Dow’s total revenue mix.

Dow accelerated portfolio management actions throughout the year, with $2 billion in proceeds expected from divestitures of non-strategic assets and businesses signed or completed in 2014. Since 2013, the Company has signed or completed transactions that are expected to generate $2.9 billion in proceeds – demonstrating progress against its previously stated target.

The Company delivered $6.5 billion of cash flow from operations in 2014, demonstrating Dow’s continued focus on productivity. Excluding the K-Dow award, this reflects a more than $320 million increase versus 2013 – representing a second consecutive year of record cash flow.
Dow reported adjusted return on capital(6) of 10.8 percent – an increase of 108 basis points versus the prior year.
 
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