La situazione è molto complessa. Lo sgambetto del Kuwait impedisce a Dow la sua trasformazione e scelta strategica di abbandonare un business a basso margine (che dovevano vendere al Kuwait) e spostarsi su uno con margine più alto (acquisizione Rohm&Hass).
Servono finanziamenti e adesso sono durissimi da reperire, per mantenere l'attuale dividendo il managment è chiamato a una sfida durissima.
Ovvio che è scesa tantissimo, ma a meno di fare del trading molto disciplinato io aspetterei la prossima trimestrale per fare un po' di conti.
Intanto ecco notizie fresche
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Dow’s Credit Downgrade May Pressure Price on Rohm & Haas Deal
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Dow Chemical Co.’s lenders may intensify pressure on the company to renegotiate its $15.4 billion takeover of specialty-chemicals maker Rohm & Haas Co. after credit-rating cuts yesterday that would increase the cost of the deal.
Dow’s ratings were lowered by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service after Kuwait scrapped the purchase of a $9 billion stake in the Midland, Michigan-based company’s plastics unit. The deal would have provided Dow, the largest U.S. chemical maker, with about $7 billion after tax to help pay for the pending acquisition of Rohm & Haas, S&P said in a statement.
Dow is the latest commodity producer to see expansion plans threatened amid a global recession that’s halted building and manufacturing. Nucor Corp., Teck Cominco Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group have all put expansion plans on hold in recent months.
The purchase of Rohm & Haas “appears extremely overpriced given a deep recession and lack of cash from the Kuwait deal,” Citigroup Global Markets analyst P.J. Juvekar said in a research note yesterday. “Dow should be looking to protect its shareholders by cutting the deal at a lower price or walking away by paying a break-up fee.”
In addition to the Kuwait investment, Dow Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris also planned to use a $13 billion bridge loan, a $3 billion equity investment by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and a $1 billion investment by the Kuwait Investment Authority to pay for Rohm & Haas.
Credit Downgrades
The downgrades yesterday could cost the company, or the 18 banks providing the bridge loan, hundreds of millions of dollars more next year if the deal goes through.
It “substantially increases the likelihood that Dow’s credit profile will be weakened in any reasonable scenario,” Moody’s analyst John Rogers said in the statement.
S&P yesterday reduced Dow’s rating to BBB from A-. Moody’s reduced Dow’s rating one grade to Baa1 from A3, the seventh- highest investment grade, and kept the company under review for possible further reductions.,
BBB-rated bonds are trading at an average spread of 1.02 percentage points more than debt ranked two steps higher, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. That’s about $133 million on Dow’s $13 billion loan.
Kuwaiti Opposition
“The downgrade reflects the likelihood that the political situation in Kuwait will make it more difficult to successfully complete the K-Dow transaction even at a lower price,” Moody’s said.
The Kuwaiti government had been under pressure from opposition lawmakers to scrap the joint venture, which would have been called K-Dow Petrochemicals. The lawmakers said it was overpriced, and some members of parliament threatened to publicly question Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah, a nephew of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, Kuwait’s ruler.
Dow has a “negative” outlook at both ratings companies, and an additional cut to below investment grade could cost another 5.7 percentage points in annual interest expense, or $741 million on Dow’s $13 billion loan, Merrill Lynch data show.
The lending group agreed on the loan terms for Dow on Sept. 8, one week before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. intensified the credit crisis and widened spreads on corporate debt to records.
Yesterday, shares of both Dow and Rohm & Haas plunged amid concern the Kuwait deal’s collapse threatened the merger.
Dow and Rohm & Haas have said the deal didn’t depend on closing the Kuwaiti purchase. Still, without funds from Kuwait, financing “would be difficult to come by in a tight credit market,” Hassan Ahmed, a New York- based analyst at HSBC Securities, said in a telephone interview yesterday from Lahore, Pakistan.
Dow plummeted $3.60, or 19 percent, to $15.32 in New York Stock Exchange trading, the largest drop since July 1980, when Bloomberg data on the company begins.
Rohm & Haas fell $10.22, or 16 percent, to $53.34, the largest decline since July 2000.