Who's next?

[Methos]

Da più di un anno siamo coinvolti in una crisi che ogni giorno si fa più dura e cattiva i cui effetti stanno colpendo un pò tutti noi.
Da tempo tra i senior di finanzaonline (tanto per citarne alcuni mark, negus, stokuccio, sirlux, orso, gaudente, roi, massimo s, ncc, barlcarlo, resercher, e tanti altri.) si è discusso sulla gravità della crisi e sulle varie opportunità di acquisto ognuno con la propria convinzione.
Ora ragionando alla luce degli ultimi fatti mi stò convincendo che è meglio non entrare al momento sulle presunte opportunità di acquisto (stile goldman o morgan ad es.) in quanto non è detta che siamo allo stadio finale della crisi e che quindi ci si può approffittare delle cosidette occasioni d'acquisto in "saldo".
Questo lo dico perchè in questi giorni il forum sembra impazzito tutti che chiedo consigli su che fare dei cadaveri che hanno in pancia e ancora altri finora indenni che pensano di giocare a fare gli speculatori.

Sono mesi che leggo i siti finanziari in cerca di una luce per capire a che punto siamo della crisi. Ma non trovo risposte. Le uniche risposte sono quelle, a cui bisogna dare atto, dei soliti siti che indicano da tempo più o meno quanto sta succedendo. E per il momento ci sno andati vicino.

E ora che dicono queste fonti? Che non è finita, anzi non siamo nemmeno a metà ma probabilmente all'inizio. Quindi alla luce della mia esperienza e delle perdite in conto capitale e reali invito tutti alla massima prudenza. Meglio non acquistare niente se non si è più che consci di quello che si sta facendo.

Who's next? la solita domanda giochetto che si fa ogni volta che cade una scietà...


Who's next to melt in the global meltdown?
Email Print Normal font Large font AdvertisementDavid Hirst
September 17, 2008
Page 1 of 2
One thing is certain in the credit crunch - there's much more to come.

THE ability of the US to hold the dykes on the world's financial crisis will be truly tested as calamities unfold. Even those who have long predicted "the great fall" are stunned by the magnitude of the disaster.

The downgrading of insurance giant AIG (with a negative watch), the looming disaster surrounding Washington Mutual, a bank that alone could wipe out the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission, and the possibility that all the broker-banks may be next in line, point to massive counterparty defaults in the credit default swaps market - the most likely culprit to cause a systemic unwind.

As one source, rarely wrong on these matters, said: "God help us if the authorities are not prepared.

"Lehman has started selling LBO (leveraged buy-out) loans, and unlike many recent sales of this sort of paper, will not be providing financing. Fortunately, this sale, at $US852 million ($A1.1 billion), is not at all large, but in this market, even what would have otherwise been a manageable sale may not attract great bids. We'll see soon enough where this trades."

And now, as one commentator remarked, the move everyone was trying to avoid, that of an institution selling assets in bulk, leading to distressed prices, which forces other players to mark their books down to the new market prices, leading to losses and reductions of already-scarce equity, is now playing at your local credit market.

Startling developments are coming at a blistering speed. This is as rare a financial panic as hundreds, probably thousands, that have occurred all over America since 1818. What is rare is that most are driven by angry hordes demanding their money. Today the hordes are of journalists - who should have been camped outside these buildings for months. The public isn't lining up but staying home and watching on television.

This tells us the crisis is greater and deeper than the public could ever conceive. People had been kept almost entirely in the dark, until this was thrust upon them.

I find myself suspicious, not of Merrill Lynch being in trouble but that before it was officially in trouble, it was bought by Bank of America. We think.

This is the same Bank of America that is trying to digest the vast, fresh but foul toxin it just took over with Countrywide.

Now if, as Professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University argues, Merrill is insolvent, how is it that Bank of America can eat these two apples at one time?


Who's next to melt in the global meltdown?
Email Print Normal font Large font AdvertisementDavid Hirst
September 17, 2008
Page 2 of 2
One thing is certain in the credit crunch - there's much more to come.

THE ability of the US to hold the dykes on the world's financial crisis will be truly tested as calamities unfold. Even those who have long predicted "the great fall" are stunned by the magnitude of the disaster.

The downgrading of insurance giant AIG (with a negative watch), the looming disaster surrounding Washington Mutual, a bank that alone could wipe out the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission, and the possibility that all the broker-banks may be next in line, point to massive counterparty defaults in the credit default swaps market - the most likely culprit to cause a systemic unwind.

As one source, rarely wrong on these matters, said: "God help us if the authorities are not prepared.

"Lehman has started selling LBO (leveraged buy-out) loans, and unlike many recent sales of this sort of paper, will not be providing financing. Fortunately, this sale, at $US852 million ($A1.1 billion), is not at all large, but in this market, even what would have otherwise been a manageable sale may not attract great bids. We'll see soon enough where this trades."

And now, as one commentator remarked, the move everyone was trying to avoid, that of an institution selling assets in bulk, leading to distressed prices, which forces other players to mark their books down to the new market prices, leading to losses and reductions of already-scarce equity, is now playing at your local credit market.

Startling developments are coming at a blistering speed. This is as rare a financial panic as hundreds, probably thousands, that have occurred all over America since 1818. What is rare is that most are driven by angry hordes demanding their money. Today the hordes are of journalists - who should have been camped outside these buildings for months. The public isn't lining up but staying home and watching on television.

This tells us the crisis is greater and deeper than the public could ever conceive. People had been kept almost entirely in the dark, until this was thrust upon them.

I find myself suspicious, not of Merrill Lynch being in trouble but that before it was officially in trouble, it was bought by Bank of America. We think.

This is the same Bank of America that is trying to digest the vast, fresh but foul toxin it just took over with Countrywide.

Now if, as Professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University argues, Merrill is insolvent, how is it that Bank of America can eat these two apples at one time?

"The arrangement has a distinctly odd flavour," one observer remarked. "Why is B of A catching these falling daggers, paying huge premiums for major players on their way to bankruptcy in markets that are getting crushed?"

Why, indeed.

The Financial Times reports that in the credit derivatives market, which has been one of the fastest-growing financial sectors - hitting $62,000 billion in notional outstanding volumes - the problems were apparent before the news on Lehman hit. And now?

"The derivatives market is shell-shocked," said Brian Yelvington, an analyst at CreditSights. "There are many aspects about unwinding trades with Lehman which people just don't know yet how to resolve. The legal contracts which underpin the markets are not always watertight and this means unintended consequences cannot be ruled out."

Wall Street doesn't like unintended consequences.

Eraj Shirvani, a senior Credit Suisse banker and recently elected chairman of the global derivatives industry trade body, said: "We could have come to work today and had no trading, no one accepting anyone else's credit and the market going into total meltdown."

The great unravelling of independent broker-dealers started with Bear Stearns and moved to Lehman, now Merrill.

Roubini, who predicted all these things almost to the day, adds this stunning summation: "Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will be next. No one of them can and will survive as independent entities. So, the Fed and Treasury should advise them all to start finding a large international partner and to merge with such partner before we get another Bear or Lehman disaster."

But what international entities will join an arrangement to save any of the US financial companies? They have been burnt once too often and nations flush with money, those in the Middle East and China, in particular, seem loath to advance another red cent.

Roubini argues that when the "entire system is collapsing in the perfect financial storm of the century … a much more radical, holistic and systemic approach to crisis management is now necessary". But the word holistic may be a collective term for a great hole.

Now he is saying we are facing the "beginning of the unravelling and collapse of the entire shadow financial system, a system of institutions (broker-dealers, hedge funds, private equity funds, sovereign investment funds, conduits) that look like banks (as they borrow short, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and in illiquid ways) and thus are highly vulnerable to bank-like runs.

"But unlike banks, they are not properly regulated and supervised, they don't have access to deposit insurance and don't have access to the lender of last resort support of the central bank."

This, therefore, is only the beginning of the beginning.

David Hirst is a journalist, documentary maker, financial consultant and investor. His column Planet Wall Street is syndicated by News Bites, a Melbourne-based sharemarket and business news publisher.

[Methos]

Da tempo leggo Weiss e devo dire che ci va per il momento molto vicino. Mesi fa aveva detto di liquididare le banche usa dai portafogli (molto prima della bearn stears)

Questo è di lunedì

Dow plunges 504! Here's what's next ...
by by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. and Mike Larson 09-15-08



With the Dow plunging 504 points today ... with Lehman dead and Merrill sold off ... with AIG on the brink and Washington Mutual not far behind ... you'll soon hear the Wall Street pundits arguing that this is the "climactic capitulation" that will end the decline. Don't fall for it!

In reality ...

The Dow is still not far from its all-time peaks, with a lot further to fall. Our forecast is unchanged: 7,200 on the Dow.


The recession is still in its early stages. Expect outright contractions in GDP in the coming quarters, and despite a lot of talk and some action, don't count on the government to turn it around any time soon.


America's oversized debt pyramid has just begun to wind down. It could take several years to clean up the mess.
We warned you this crisis was coming and it came. We named the names of the companies that would fail and they did. We told you how to avoid the dangers. We even recommended inverse ETFs that have been surging thanks to the market's plunge.

Our message for you today is this: If you ignored our warnings before, it's not too late to act now. Sure, you may have missed the first phase of this debacle. But that's water under the bridge. Looking forward, all that matters is what you do right now, before the next, deeper phases.

Here's What's Happening and
What We See Coming Next ...

The financial failures you've seen so far are just the tip of the iceberg ...

Lehman Brothers is merely the first to fail. Expect more in the weeks ahead, possibly starting with those that have the smallest capital cushion.


Bank of America is making a horrendous mistake. It's already bogged down with its earlier purchase of Countrywide Financial, a classic pig in the poke. Now, on top of that bad move, it's taking on all the debts and risks of Merrill Lynch.


AIG, the biggest insurance firm in the country, is desperately trying to shore up its balance sheet after suffering $18.5 billion in losses over the past three quarters. It's planning to dump assets, raise capital, and asking the Federal Reserve for a $40 billion bridge loan. Don't be surprised if AIG is taken over by insurance regulators in the days ahead. And don't be shocked if more insurance company failures follow.


Look out for bigger financial troubles in the banking industry, including not only the names that are in the news, like Washington Mutual and Wachovia, but also at Citicorp, HSBC ... and yes ... Bank of America.
Late this afternoon, Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to inspire some confidence. But he failed as the shares in most of these companies plunged: Washington Mutual, down 27%. Wachovia down, 25%. AIG down 61%, the worst single-day stock decline for any major insurer in memory.

The market and the economy WILL recover eventually, but only after the nation's bad debts are liquidated, a process that will be extremely painful and traumatic.

Here's What to Do ...

First, if you have shares that we have not recommended, go online or call your broker to sell HALF immediately, at the market. Then stand by for our next alert regarding the second half.

Second, put all the proceeds away in the safest, most liquid investment in the world: Treasury bills or Treasury-only money market funds like Capital Preservation, the Weiss Treasury-Only Money Market Fund or any of the several we have recommended repeatedly here in Money and Markets.

Third, for the stocks that you hold (including those we recommended), if you have not bought inverse ETFs or put options to help protect you against losses, get ready to do so at the very next opportunity.

Fourth, for a hard-hitting, detailed forecast of the NEXT phase of this crisis, be sure to watch the recording of our 1-hour video webcast, "Plague to Pandemic," which we just posted on our Website this afternoon. Just turn up your computer speakers and click here now.

Never before in our lifetimes has there been a more urgent need for this guidance! And never before have we been more concerned about investors who might miss it! Be sure to take advantage of it now while you still can.

Best wishes,

Martin and Mike

[ceni]

Originalmente inviato da Methos

Da tempo leggo Weiss e devo dire che ci va per il momento molto vicino. Mesi fa aveva detto di liquididare le banche usa dai portafogli (molto prima della bearn stears)

Questo è di lunedì

Dow plunges 504! Here's what's next ...
by by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. and Mike Larson 09-15-08



With the Dow plunging 504 points today ... with Lehman dead and Merrill sold off ... with AIG on the brink and Washington Mutual not far behind ... you'll soon hear the Wall Street pundits arguing that this is the "climactic capitulation" that will end the decline. Don't fall for it!

In reality ...

The Dow is still not far from its all-time peaks, with a lot further to fall. Our forecast is unchanged: 7,200 on the Dow.


The recession is still in its early stages. Expect outright contractions in GDP in the coming quarters, and despite a lot of talk and some action, don't count on the government to turn it around any time soon.


America's oversized debt pyramid has just begun to wind down. It could take several years to clean up the mess.
We warned you this crisis was coming and it came. We named the names of the companies that would fail and they did. We told you how to avoid the dangers. We even recommended inverse ETFs that have been surging thanks to the market's plunge.

Our message for you today is this: If you ignored our warnings before, it's not too late to act now. Sure, you may have missed the first phase of this debacle. But that's water under the bridge. Looking forward, all that matters is what you do right now, before the next, deeper phases.

Here's What's Happening and
What We See Coming Next ...

The financial failures you've seen so far are just the tip of the iceberg ...

Lehman Brothers is merely the first to fail. Expect more in the weeks ahead, possibly starting with those that have the smallest capital cushion.


Bank of America is making a horrendous mistake. It's already bogged down with its earlier purchase of Countrywide Financial, a classic pig in the poke. Now, on top of that bad move, it's taking on all the debts and risks of Merrill Lynch.


AIG, the biggest insurance firm in the country, is desperately trying to shore up its balance sheet after suffering $18.5 billion in losses over the past three quarters. It's planning to dump assets, raise capital, and asking the Federal Reserve for a $40 billion bridge loan. Don't be surprised if AIG is taken over by insurance regulators in the days ahead. And don't be shocked if more insurance company failures follow.


Look out for bigger financial troubles in the banking industry, including not only the names that are in the news, like Washington Mutual and Wachovia, but also at Citicorp, HSBC ... and yes ... Bank of America.
Late this afternoon, Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to inspire some confidence. But he failed as the shares in most of these companies plunged: Washington Mutual, down 27%. Wachovia down, 25%. AIG down 61%, the worst single-day stock decline for any major insurer in memory.

The market and the economy WILL recover eventually, but only after the nation's bad debts are liquidated, a process that will be extremely painful and traumatic.

Here's What to Do ...

First, if you have shares that we have not recommended, go online or call your broker to sell HALF immediately, at the market. Then stand by for our next alert regarding the second half.

Second, put all the proceeds away in the safest, most liquid investment in the world: Treasury bills or Treasury-only money market funds like Capital Preservation, the Weiss Treasury-Only Money Market Fund or any of the several we have recommended repeatedly here in Money and Markets.

Third, for the stocks that you hold (including those we recommended), if you have not bought inverse ETFs or put options to help protect you against losses, get ready to do so at the very next opportunity.

Fourth, for a hard-hitting, detailed forecast of the NEXT phase of this crisis, be sure to watch the recording of our 1-hour video webcast, "Plague to Pandemic," which we just posted on our Website this afternoon. Just turn up your computer speakers and click here now.

Never before in our lifetimes has there been a more urgent need for this guidance! And never before have we been more concerned about investors who might miss it! Be sure to take advantage of it now while you still can.

Best wishes,

Martin and Mike

Mi associo.

[Methos]

Originalmente inviato da ceni

Mi associo.

Bè frasi come queste fanno riflettere se non si vede solo la finanza come un gioco...

"If you ignored our warnings before, it's not too late to act now. Sure, you may have missed the first phase of this debacle. But that's water under the bridge. Looking forward, all that matters is what you do right now, before the next, deeper phases."

[Methos]

Morgan stanley continua a soffrire, su alcuni siti viene indicata come la prossima vittima se non si affretta a trovare qualcuno con cui mergersi.

[rodino]

Originalmente inviato da Methos

Quindi alla luce della mia esperienza e delle perdite in conto capitale e reali invito tutti alla massima prudenza. Meglio non acquistare niente se non si è più che consci di quello che si sta facendo.

[CorvoTorvo]

Secondo voi GOLDMAN SACHS rischia la fine di Lehman?

[ironblade79]

Si io penso di si, che salteranno sia GS che MS.

Infatti sto cercando di vendere le mio obbligazioni ad un prezzo decente, ma neanche a 70 riesco a venderle.

Ogni giorno perdono quanto le azioni, quindi è un segno netto.

Alla fine il mercato è veloce: prima sembravano intoccabili adesso non li vuole più nessuno ed è questo che conta.

Per me saltano tutti e due salvo che immediatamente trovano banche "vere" con cui fondersi.

Il non accettare, da parte di Fuild, la proposta coreana perchè "troppo bassa" ha distrutto la società stessa e i bondisti.
Ma lui ha anche la buona uscita e cmq non va in galera cosa che meriterebbe.

Dovrebbe esistere una cosa del tipo "hai avuto la possiblità di salvare la Banca e non l'hai fatto?" Vai in galera.

Purtroppo ai CEO non gliene importa niente di nessuno se non del loro prestigio personale e dimostrano arroganza, testardaggine che portano solo danni come in LB.

io ho le obbligazioni e spero di farle fuori anche a 70 se riesco, e mi auguro che cmq falliscano entrambe come LB.

ironblade79

[dachi]

tutto cio' che dite non lo capisco, la situazione e' difficile ma scusate, fino a ieri dicevate che gs si sarebbe salvata oggi in assenza di notizie fresche la date per fallita ma vi rendete conto che state solo panicando? nel mercato c'e' la piu' totale anarchia ma questo perche' abbiamo tutti paura e' vero ma non vedete che e' anche dovuto al fatto che non ci sono i mm! dobbiamoo essere piu' freddi ed interpretare ogni informazione che troviamo ma non si devono fare illazioni purtroppo ci siamo tutti dentro fino al collo ma cerchiamo di mantenere la calma

[mirkx]

venderò anche io le ms e ******* spero di venderle ad un prezzo decente.