TRY - nuova Lira turca III

[giveme5]

Esaurito il precedente thread
TRY - Nuova Lira Turca II°

proseguiamo qui.

Il TRY rimane debole, non ne vuol sapere di tornare sotto quota 2 contro €; anzi, temo che nei prossimi 15gg. soffrirà ancora parecchio.

Tra tanti buoni propositi governativi (riduzione del debito pubblico, riforma del sistema pensionistico, vendita di parte del patrimonio statale .......) c'è un fatto concreto positivo che porta un po' di sollievo alle finanze pubbliche: il FMI ha rinnovato alla turchia un prestito di 3,6 mld. $

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atCEzKTMZJ3c

[pallino66]

Originalmente inviato da giveme5

Esaurito il precedente thread
TRY - Nuova Lira Turca II°

proseguiamo qui.

Il TRY rimane debole, non ne vuol sapere di tornare sotto quota 2 contro €; anzi, temo che nei prossimi 15gg. soffrirà ancora parecchio.

Tra tanti buoni propositi governativi (riduzione del debito pubblico, riforma del sistema pensionistico, vendita di parte del patrimonio statale .......) c'è un fatto concreto positivo che porta un po' di sollievo alle finanze pubbliche: il FMI ha rinnovato alla turchia un prestito di 3,6 mld. $

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atCEzKTMZJ3c

è troppo debole
ormai neanche i mercati positivi l'aiutano

[fulvio.setti]

ohi ohi ohi ... è ricominciata la rampa in ascesa EUR/TRY ??
Please, previsioni .....
(o anche solo pareri .... )

[giveme5]

Originalmente inviato da pallino66

è troppo debole
ormai neanche i mercati positivi l'aiutano

Già, cosa preoccupante, segno che c'è qualcosa di profondo che si è definitivamente incrinato. Fenomeno che vale anche per ISK, ZAR, NZD.

Segnalo questo ampio report di Market Watch, lungo ma interessante.
Evidenzio i passaggi a mio parere + importanti.
Chiedo commenti a chi segue da tempo con competenza le vicende turche, qui si dipinge uno scenario fosco per tutto il 2008, gli unici fattori positivi sarebbero
- banche turche sane, non esposte verso asset pericolosi (subprime, CDO, etc.)
- equity scontato mediamente del 30% c.a dai max. di Ottobre 2007, percui parecchi titoli di realtà solide sarebbero occasione buy.
Il resto (deficit commerciale, inflazione, domanda interna, smobilizzo posizioni carry trade sul TRY, contesto politico in forte tensione) very bad .........


Battered Turkish equities face more tough times
Citigroup cuts Turkey to neutral from overweight; HSBC also gloomy
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:28 p.m. EDT April 14, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Turkish equities have been hit hard this year by risk aversion and heightened political uncertainty, and analysts see more tough times ahead for the market, which has tumbled from its position as one of the best-performing emerging markets last year to the bottom of the ranking this year.
The MSCI Turkey index has fallen 32% for the year to date, making it the worst performer among major emerging markets. The dismal performance of Turkish stocks this year is in stark contrast to its star turn over the last two years. See a special report on Turkey.
From June 2006 through late October 2007, the MSCI Turkey index rallied more than 160%. Since early November last year, however, the market has declined precipitously. In April, the Turkish market made a modest rebound, but it is still the worst performer in the world.
In Istanbul, the benchmark IMKB-100 stock index is down 25% this year.
"We expect unfavorable global liquidity and credit conditions, as well as lingering political uncertainty, to weigh on Turkish market sentiment and economic activity for the remainder of 2008," Cenk Orcan and Bulent Yurdagul, co-heads of the Turkish equity-research team at HSBC, wrote in a report Monday.
"Turkish equities have been punished heavily, and at current levels valuations look highly depressed," they wrote. "However, with current political risk, it is hard to make a bullish call on the market, especially near term."
Political tension escalated anew in March when the constitutional court decided to hear a case aimed at shutting down the ruling AK Party, which has Islamist roots, for "antisecular activities" and the banning from politics of dozens of its members, including Turkey's prime minister and the president. A predominantly Muslim country, Turkey has strong secularist traditions and maintains strict separation between church and state.

Citigroup downgrades Turkey to neutral
In another gloomy assessment, Citigroup cut Turkish equities to neutral from overweight in its Central Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) model portfolio Friday.
"Turkey is the most exposed of the major CEEMEA markets to an economic slowdown and risk aversion," wrote Andrew Howell, a strategist at Citigroup, in a note.
"High energy prices and a spike in inflation are not helping," he said. "Neither is political uncertainty associated with the AKP closure case."
Turkey's $45 billion current-account deficit, which is more than 6% of GDP, is a significant macroeconomic vulnerability. In addition, foreigners own about 70% of Turkish equities, and as a result a spike in risk aversion can really damage the local market.
The greatest near-term risk is the Turkish currency, which "could bear the brunt of a flight out of Turkish assets," said Citigroup's Howell. Consumer-price inflation has soared to 9.2%, well above the central bank's 6% year-end target. Interest rates also are fairly high at 15.25%.
"So the bad news is there for all to see: a faltering economy, fragile currency, political confusion and a foreign shareholder base that is long Turkey and could still sell," according to Howell. "If on top of this the stock market looked expensive, Turkey would be a surefire sell ... but it does not."
Even as stock prices have tumbled, earnings have held up relatively well, and as a result valuations look inexpensive, Citi's Howell said.
"The storm clouds that have gathered around Turkey do not show signs of dissipating soon, and we prefer to retreat to the sidelines," he added. "But even if markets carry on with the spring rally under way since April, we would be inclined to be sellers into strength."

Among the Turkish stocks Howell would still buy are Turkiye Is Bankasi, or Isbank, oil-refinery operator Tupras and pharmaceuticals manufacturer EastPharma (UK:EAST: news, chart, profile). Even though Howell likes Isbank, he said that the banking sector in general looks vulnerable despite the much-reduced valuations.
HSBC's strategy
"At current levels, Turkish valuations seem very depressed," HSBC strategists wrote in a report Monday.
"We think that a further decrease in stock prices would mean that the market is pricing a crisis-lie scenario -- including a currency crisis, with the Turkish lira depreciating more than 20% and staying there for a long time, leading to corporate concerns and rising banks' credit risk," they said.

HSBC upgraded Bank Asya and supermarket chain BIM to overweight from neutral. Bank Asya is the largest of Turkey's four participation banks, whose activities are consistent with Islamic law, particularly the prohibition to collect and pay interest.
HSBC also upgraded energy company Akenerji to volatile overweight from volatile neutral. The bank downgraded Arcelik to neutral from overweight, and it moved banking group Yapi Kredi Bankasi to volatile overweight from overweight, meaning that the stock has historical volatility.
"With 2008 unlikely to be a great year for domestic demand, we think investors should focus on significantly underpriced stocks with solid fundamentals," the HSBC analysts said.
Beside the three stock upgrades mentioned above, HSBC analysts believe that banks are attractive at their current valuations.
"With no subprime or CDO [collateralized-debt obligations] exposure and no short foreign-exchange positions, strong capitalization and strong liquidity, Turkish banks are fundamentally strong, in our view, and we do not foresee any major short-term risks to the sector," they said.
Among the conventional banks, HSBC likes Yapi Kredi Bankasi as well as Vakifbank, both rated as volatile overweight.
Besides those two banks, HSBC's highest conviction calls include Türk Ekonomi Bank, insurance and pension fund-management company Anadolu Hayat, carmaker Tofas , media company Hurriyet, glass-packaging company Anadolu Cam and Yazicilar Holding.



Porcaccia la miseria !

[tua-vichy]

Originalmente inviato da fulvio.setti

ohi ohi ohi ... è ricominciata la rampa in ascesa EUR/TRY ??
Please, previsioni .....
(o anche solo pareri .... )

La vedo brutta...........

Si sta mettendo molto male.

Le voci dicono che saranno tempi brutti almeno fine Ottobre

[fratac]

Originalmente inviato da tua-vichy

La vedo brutta...........

Si sta mettendo molto male.

Le voci dicono che saranno tempi brutti almeno fine Ottobre

per quale motivo e perchè fino a tale periodo?

[giveme5]

Anche in quest'articolo non ci vedono spiragli positivi su Malena

Ci vorrebbe che domani la banca centrale turca riservasse una sorpresina agli analisti ed alevasse un po' il tasso di sconto.

Sono dentro a 2,00 esatti contro € e me comincio a preoccuparmi; no so se valga la pena mediare entrando ancora.



Turkish Lira Declines to Two-Week Low
By Ewa Krukowska and Yon Pulkrabek

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey's lira fell to a two-week low against the dollar before a meeting of the central bank at which policy makers are forecast to keep interest rates on hold. ...........

The Ankara-based central bank will probably leave its key lending rate at 15.25 percent tomorrow, the highest in the region, according to all 22 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Turkey's benchmark stock index has fallen by almost a quarter this year and the lira has dropped 13.2 percent as a political battle between the government and its secular opponents rocks the country's financial markets.

``We can observe high volatility as investors are positioning ahead of the central bank's statement due tomorrow,'' said Elisabeth Gruie, a currency strategist in London at BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank. ``The lira is also hurt by the blurry political situation and uncertainty around the corporate earning season.''

The lira fell as much as 1.6 percent to 1.3341 per dollar, and was at 1.3241 by 5:15 p.m. in Istanbul, from 1.3129 late yesterday. It also fell 1.9 percent to 2.1121 per euro.

Turkey's currency has fallen this year on the worsening economic outlook and investors' concern that the lawsuit to bar Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from office and ban his Justice and Development Party may distract the government from its agenda.

Consumer Confidence

The economy grew 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, unchanged from three months earlier at the slowest rate in almost six years.

Turkish consumer confidence index fell to 81.96 in March, the lowest since it was started in 2003, from 87.6 the previous month, the statistics office said on its Web site today. A figure below 100 indicates consumers are pessimistic about the future.

The Istanbul-based International Investors' Association estimated that Turkey may attract as little as $15 billion in foreign direct investment this year, compared with a record $21.9 billion in 2007, Vatan newspaper said.

Turkey's Chief Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya filed a lawsuit on March 14 arguing that Erdogan's Islamic-leaning party is mixing the affairs of mosque and state.

Standard & Poor's revised its ratings outlook for Turkey to negative from stable due to the ``increasingly fraught'' political and global environment, the ratings agency said in a statement on April 3.

[jioly]

Attualmente il tasso è al 15.25, potrebbero lasciarlo così per il momento c è troppa turbolenza sui mercati.

Fino a Ottobre per le elezioni americane?
Caduto bush il dollaro si riprenderà e con lui tutte le altre valute,speriamo.

[albicocco]

Io volevo fare i certificates ABN valuta plus in TRY, ma in banca mi hanno detto meglio restare in attesa, investendoin CCT.
La valuta da inizio anno ha perso piu' del 20% (in 4 mesi) rende circa il 15% annuo ( quindi chi le ha prese non copre neanche la perdita sul cambio) e le prospettive sono fortemente negative , anche perchè il partito al governo potrebbe essere sciolto perchè contro i principi di ATATURK.
Possibile? Ma non era stato eletto democraticamente? E non era "moderato"?
Ma il capo di governo è ancora quello amico di Berlusconi che aveva criticato il Papa?, Berlusconi, se ben ricordo , era andato al matrimonio del figlio portandogli un orologione d'oro e l solito aveva fatto gaffe e casini.

[quantitativo]

Originalmente inviato da albicocco

Io volevo fare i certificates ABN valuta plus in TRY, ma in banca mi hanno detto meglio restare in attesa, investendoin CCT.
La valuta da inizio anno ha perso piu' del 20% (in 4 mesi).

io ho acquistato lire turche l'anno scorso proprio quando gli "esperti" dicevano di strarne alla larga ( voci su colpo di stato...)

il gain che ho fatto lo so solo io