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[SirLux]

Saint Gobain?

E' una tripla B+ ha un obbligazione 5%/2010 appena sotto i 100
FR0000471724
Ho dato un occhiatina veloce, e non ho visto nulla di "preoccupante" ma Vi chiedo un giudizio sul titolo e sull'azienda.

Grazie

[cricket72]

up x mark

[i98mark]

Ad una primissima valutazione del newsflow, potrebbe trovarsi soggetta a takeover nei prossimi anni - da parte dell'equity firm che ha provato a scarlarla o piuttosto da altri - con la possibilità di cali del rating (magari, dipendendo da come venisse realizzata una eventuale scalata, anche fino a perdere l'IG).

Wendel raises St Gobain stake
By Martin Arnold in London

Published: March 27 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 27 2008 02:00

Wendel, the listed French investment company, will today announce it has increased its stake in Saint-Gobain from 18 per cent to 21.5 per cent - the most it is allowed under a pact agreed with the building materials group last week.

Publishing its full-year results today, Wendel will also record a €345m ($544m) charge to cover the cost of financing and hedging its €4bn stake in Saint-Gobain, which is two-thirds funded with debt and has fallen sharply in the past six months. The charge will be more than offset by the exceptional gain of about €800m Wendel made last year from floating Bureau Veritas, the inspection and testing company.

Jean-Bernard Lafonta, chief executive of Wendel, told the Financial Times that the charge was to cover "financing costs" of the Saint-Gobain investment, including a hedge to cover it against 40 per cent of any further falls in the shares until 2012.

Wendel has been building its stake in the company since last autumn and has seen the value of its investment fall by more than 30 per cent since October. It was unclear yesterday whether the group had acquired the extra 3.5 per cent in the open market, which would help to alleviate the loss already suffered by reducing the average price per share paid. There was some speculation in the market that Wendel may have increased its stake through the exercise of options acquired some time ago from a range of financial institutions.

Its decision to increase its stake to 21.5 per cent was widely expected after last week's truce with management.

In an attempt to reach a compromise, Wendel has agreed to limit its stake to 21.5 per cent and to cap its voting rights at 34 per cent of votes cast.

In return it will have three directors on an expanded 16-person board and a seat on a newly created strategic committee.

Mr Lafonta said the pact would last until 2011 but could be dissolved at any time if a disagreement could not be settled amicably. "We have the weight we want as a shareholder, which allows us to work well with Saint-Gobain's management," he said.

Wendel's board met last night to approve 2007 results showing a 13 per cent rise in recurring profits to €408m.

Additional reporting by Peggy Hollinger in Paris

[i98mark]

Il forecast per il 2008 è discreto, sebbene in questo comparto merceologico (materiali da costruzione) non credo le prospettive siano particolarmente rosee, specie per le società che abbiano una presenza significativa negli USA (come Saint Gobain).

La società si aspetta infatti cmq una modesta crescita degli utili, pur confermando che peseranno le condizioni del mercato USA.

In ogni caso S. Gobain è un colosso, leader mondiale del settore, e mi sembra arduo ipotizzare che si possa trovare nelle condizioni di non ripagare di qui al 2010.

Mi riservo di approfondire (non la seguo) per una valutazione un momento più completa....

Una Reuters recente con i risultati 2007 in pillole. Lo scorso anno sembrerebbe essere andato bene...

Saint-Gobain hikes dividend by 20.6 pct yr/yr
Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:09pm EDT

PARIS, March 20 (Reuters) - French building materials group Saint-Gobain (SGOB.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday said it planned to increase its dividend by 20.6 percent to 2.05 euros ($3.17) per share.

The group that insulates one in five American homes confirmed 2007 preliminary results released in January, and reiterated that it expected modest earnings growth in 2008 due to a possible U.S. recession and tighter credit conditions.

The world's biggest listed building materials group made a net profit excluding capital gains or losses of 2.114 billion euros last year, up from 1.702 billion in 2006. This came above the 2.048 billion euros average forecast of a Reuters poll.

(Reporting by Marie Maitre)

[cocobaya]

Ultimo eseguito di oggi (Iwbank) 99.73

[SirLux]

Grazie ragazzi, la tengo d'occhio

[i98mark]

Punti di forza e di debolezza della società in un recente report settoriale si S&P.

Punti di forza: l'esposizione verso i mercati emergenti (15% del fatturato) ed il fatto che larga parte delle vendite venga dal sottocomparto delle ristrutturazioni.

L'esposizione verso gli USA, sebbene riguardi il settore dell'edilizia residenziale - costruzione di nuove abitazioni e settori ad elevato livello di competizione sui prezzi - è vista relativamente poco problematica perché totalizza il 13% del fatturato complessivo.

Punto di debolezza è un'ampia esposizione verso il mercato residenziale francese, che tuttavia è visto come suscettibile di un minore indebolimento rispetto ad altri mercati edilizi europei (fra i peggiori in termini di possibile rallentamento, secondo S&P, dovrebbero esservi Spagna Italia e Irlanda).

Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (BBB+/Stable/A-2)

Strengths. 15% of sales come from emerging markets, including South America, Eastern Europe, and India. A large share of sales also come from renovation, through the company's strongly established and geographically diverse distribution division. Although Saint-Gobain has a large exposure in the U.S. to new housing and highly competitive products (wallboards, siding, and roofing), with intense pricing pressures in the gypsum market, overall the U.S. makes up a minor portion of sales (13%).

Weaknesses. Saint-Gobain has a large exposure to France, although the French housing market is so far expected to soften only moderately.

Overall market prospects: softer but still good (positive growth). We expect only soft cyclical slowing in France, but will monitor this aspect, as well as resilience of renovation activities. Overall, lower-than-expected cash flows would not threaten ratings per se, as the latter depend chiefly on financial policy and an appropriate balance between cash generation and discretionary capital outlays on acquisitions.