Notizie IKB

[ginopelo]

spulciando le obbligazioni sul sito unicredito ne ho trovate 2 che sembrano interessanti..
ISIN TASSO PREZZO
IKB TV 31.03.2009 XS0215590240 EUR3 + 0,075 93,7
IKB STEP UP 10.05.2009 XS0191230571 2008 3,5, nel 2009 4 90,85
qualche info, notizia, avvertimento?

[cricket72]

Originalmente inviato da ginopelo

spulciando le obbligazioni sul sito unicredito ne ho trovate 2 che sembrano interessanti..
ISIN TASSO PREZZO
IKB TV 31.03.2009 XS0215590240 EUR3 + 0,075 93,7
IKB STEP UP 10.05.2009 XS0191230571 2008 3,5, nel 2009 4 90,85
qualche info, notizia, avvertimento?

ciao
puoi vedere sul sito della banca gli ultimi report in pdf delle agenzie di rating
e altri dati finanziari
http://www2.ikb.de/content/en/ir/fix...ting/index.jsp

[Ekhnaton]

Originalmente inviato da ginopelo

spulciando le obbligazioni sul sito unicredito ne ho trovate 2 che sembrano interessanti..
ISIN TASSO PREZZO
IKB TV 31.03.2009 XS0215590240 EUR3 + 0,075 93,7
IKB STEP UP 10.05.2009 XS0191230571 2008 3,5, nel 2009 4 90,85
qualche info, notizia, avvertimento?

Sembrerebbero ottime, però ieri hanno dovuto ricapitalizzare per 450 mln di euro a causa delle svalutazioni sul ptf...
Non credo che KFW (principale azionista) la lascerà andare a ramengo....

[ginopelo]

Originalmente inviato da cricket72

ciao
puoi vedere sul sito della banca gli ultimi report in pdf delle agenzie di rating
e altri dati finanziari
http://www2.ikb.de/content/en/ir/fix...ting/index.jsp

ciao cricket, grazie per il link.
essendo praticamente un ignorante in materia ne approfitto per chiederti/vi cosa significa avere un rating nello short-term di P2 o F1 mentre nel pdf di Moody ad esempio nel titolo c'è scritto downgrading a A3/P2/E+..
insomma leggo che ci sono possibili rischi di ulteriore svalutazione ma d'altro canto ha una base di clienti in Germania di tutto rispetto...

la mia domanda è: è da considerarsi speculativo pur con A3 e A+ nel lungo termine? se si prevede una certa stabilità nel lungo periodo mi sembra ovvio che dovrebbero, con tutta probabilità, poter far fronte ai prossimi impegni.. o la faccio troppo semplice?

[giveme5]

Originalmente inviato da ginopelo

spulciando le obbligazioni sul sito unicredito ne ho trovate 2 che sembrano interessanti..
ISIN TASSO PREZZO
IKB TV 31.03.2009 XS0215590240 EUR3 + 0,075 93,7
IKB STEP UP 10.05.2009 XS0191230571 2008 3,5, nel 2009 4 90,85
qualche info, notizia, avvertimento?

Ciao
puoi guardare anche qui
il caso IKB

Comunque è sempre molto utile utilizzare

[ginopelo]

Originalmente inviato da giveme5

Ciao
puoi guardare anche qui
il caso IKB

Comunque è sempre molto utile utilizzare

ops.. hai perfettamente ragione.. farò più attenzione.

[cricket72]

Originalmente inviato da ginopelo

la mia domanda è: è da considerarsi speculativo pur con A3 e A+ nel lungo termine? se si prevede una certa stabilità nel lungo periodo mi sembra ovvio che dovrebbero, con tutta probabilità, poter far fronte ai prossimi impegni.. o la faccio troppo semplice?

quello che devi guardare è il rendimento del titolo in relazione al rendimento di titoli bancari non legati alle vicende dei mutui sub-prime , quel rendimento non è certo da considerarsi tranquillo inoltre è probabile un abbassamento di rating e anche di prezzo dei titoli
l'ultimo aggiornamento di fitch è
ikb deutsche industriebank ag
Long Term Issuer Default Rating: A+ 06-MAR-2008
Revision Implication Watch Outlook: Rating Watch Negative
come istituto è come se fosse già fallito senza l'intervento dell'istituto pubblico kfw proprietario del 38% di ikb
quindi è pensabile che continueranno a salvare l'istituto con diversi fondi così come è stato fatto finora

[researcher]

Ad-hoc Release: IKB expects further fair-value losses on portfolio investments – Further supporting measures – Full year forecast adjusted
[Düsseldorf, 20 March 2008]

IKB’s Board of Managing Directors has temporarily stopped the intended sale of IKB’s portfolio investments due to the current market environment. However, IKB still plans to pursue a sale of these investments.

Against the background of negative developments in the financial markets, IKB expects further fair value losses of about € 450 million from the sale of its € 3 billion (nominal) portfolio investments carrying a higher probability of default. IKB had already written down € 630 million of the portfolio. The total losses of the portfolio amount to € 2.1 billion, of which € 1 billion are shielded by KfW and the banking pool.

IKB expects further fair value losses of € 140 million on the € 2.8 billion (nominal) portfolio comprising assets carrying a lower risk profile. In February 2008, IKB had accounted for mark to market losses of € 320 million on that portfolio.

Further supporting measures

The higher fair value losses will impact the bank’s capital. To offset these effects, KfW has made another capital injection into IKB’s capital, as envisaged in the package of measures presented in February 2008. The capital injection of € 450 million comes in the form of a loan to IKB with immediate debt waiver (Forderungsverzicht) and compensation out of future profits (Besserungsabrede). This measure comprises the same elements as the € 600 million capital injection on 19 February 2008. Key elements are:

Compensation payments out of future profits related to both measures to the amount of € 1.05 billion (plus expenses and interest payments). Compensation rights only occur insofar as IKB does not incur a loss according to its annual accounts for the AG under German GAAP (HGB) as a result of the compensation payments.
Interest payments only in those years, where as a result of the compensation payments, IKB does not incur a loss according to its accounts for the AG under German GAAP (HGB).
Interest payments and compensation payments out of future profits will always precede profit-participation certificates and silent participations of IKB AG.


Sembrano abbastanza convinti nel supportarla

[corfu]

mi ricordo di aver letto che la KFW vuole sicuramente tenere a galla l'IKB e quando quest'ultima sarà in grado di navigare ancora da sola, di liquidarne la quota in possesso.
diciamo un salvataggio a scopo benefico...

[researcher]

Rating Action: IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG

Moody's downgrades IKB to Baa3/E from A3/E+

Hybrids downgraded by two to three notches; outlook on senior debt rating negative

Frankfurt, April 01, 2008 -- Moody's Investors Service today downgraded the following ratings of IKB
Deutsche Industriebank ("IKB"):

1) The bank financial strength rating ("BFSR") was downgraded to E from E+. The outlook on the BFSR is
now stable (previously developing).

2) IKB's long-term debt and deposit ratings were downgraded to Baa3 from A3 and the subordinated debt
ratings to Ba2 from Baa1. The outlook on these ratings is negative.

3) IKB's short-term ratings were downgraded to Prime-3 from Prime-2.

4) IKB's junior subordinated securities (profit participation certificates) were downgraded to Ca from Caa1. Its hybrid capital instruments eligible for Tier 1 capital (silent participations) and the preferred securities of IKB
Funding Trust I & II were downgraded to Caa3 from Caa1. All hybrid ratings now have a stable outlook.
These rating actions conclude the review initiated on 31 July 2007 and maintained in several subsequent rating actions, most recently on 22 January 2008.

"Today's downgrade of IKB's BFSR to E (the lowest category on Moody's scale for this rating) chiefly reflects
our concern that the bank's core franchise, in its role as a lender to German SMEs, may be rapidly eroding in view of the ongoing deterioration in its financial profile, the difficulties it is facing in containing the risk relating
to its structured credit investments, and the protracted delays in the bank's sale to a third party," says Katharina Barten, lead analyst for IKB at Moody's.
Moody's does take into account that the planned capital increase and the possibility of a sale of IKB to a committed new owner could eventually lead to a recovery of the bank's financial strength. However, with
regard to the BFSR downgrade to E, the rating agency's primary concerns are as follows:

1) IKB's continued weak and highly exposed financial profile, which could result in the need for further
support, in addition to the EUR8.5 billion in cash and commitments that has already been provided, to avoid a default

2) The difficulties IKB is encountering in effecting its targeted sale of its EUR3.1 billion higher-risk portfolio of structured credit products ('NewCo', representing ca. 54% of IKB's total structured credit investments) due to the continued volatility in the financial markets
3) The somewhat challenging prospects for IKB to maintain its core business and future profitability, in light of
(i) the weakened investor confidence and resulting constraints for inter-bank funding as well as increased
funding costs, (ii) the fact that a sizeable portfolio of structured credit investments will need to remain on the
balance sheet (even if the higher-risk portfolio is sold), which could continue to place constraints on IKB's
economic and regulatory capitalisation should the difficult market conditions persist, and (iii) the additional
obligation under the EUR1.05 billion debtor warrant, which may constrain the bank's capital generation
capacity and liquidity for many years to come.
"Moody's regards the rating impact of IKB's debtor warrant as considerable, as it represents a new liability
that will need to be paid out of future profits and ranks senior to future coupon payments on hybrids, future
write-back of hybrids, which will be written down in the year 2007/08, and also dividends," Ms Barten
explains. More specifically, in Moody's view, the debtor warrant may prove an additional obstacle to the
efforts of Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW, Aaa/P-1) to find a new investor for its 43.4% stake in IKB,
while KfW remains under political pressure to sell its shareholding. The resulting likely delay in a successful
divestment could mean for IKB that its future role and business model will remain uncertain for some time, as
these will to a considerable extent depend on its future main shareholder. Moody's remains concerned that
Moody's downgrades IKB to Baa3/E from A3/E+ Seite 1 von 3
http://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/re...0000487138.asp... 02.04.2008
this uncertainty could result in a rapid loss of key staff and customers, thereby eroding the remaining
franchise value of the bank.
With regard to the multi-notch downgrade of the senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings to Baa3 and of
the subordinated debt ratings to Ba2, Moody's commented that both downgrades reflected the weakened
intrinsic strength of IKB, combined with the increased uncertainty of a successful sale in the short term to an
interested third party that could preserve the company's remaining franchise value. In spite of the reduced
capacity of KfW to provide support from its own resources, Moody's continues to deem it highly likely that
further support for IKB's senior unsecured deposits and outstanding senior debt issues -- most likely from the
central government -- would be forthcoming if necessary, justifying a low investment-grade rating at Baa3.
This is also supported by KfW's commitment towards the German regulator to subscribe to EUR1.25 billion in
fresh capital, which is planned to be issued later in 2008. The downgrade to sub-investment-grade at Ba2
and the wider notching of the subordinated debt reflect the increased risk described above and is in line with
Moody's notching policy.
Commenting on the downgrade of the hybrid instruments to Ca and Caa3, Moody's said that the additional
liability under the debtor warrant would severely constrain IKB's scope for internal capital generation,
exacerbated by its likely inability to replace maturing hybrid capital instruments, with a negative impact on the
bank's total capital ratio. This liability will also likely make it impossible for the bank to make profits that would
be available for the future write-back of principal (as a write-down is certain to happen for the year 2007/08)
and coupon payments on its hybrids -- especially the upper Tier-2 instruments (Genussscheine), which will
mature between 2009 and 2017. The debtor warrant does not have a maturity, i.e. it only falls away once the
whole amount has been repaid to the beneficiary, KfW. Therefore, the downgrade of IKB's hybrid ratings
reflects the severity of the currently expected write-downs of principal and/or accumulated future coupon
deferrals over a period of around 10 years (or shorter periods as applicable to instruments with shorter timeto-
maturity). The one-notch higher rating for the silent participations and the preferred securities of IKB
Funding Trust I & II at Caa3 reflects their lower expected loss, as the principal has so far not been affected
and the expected loss so far only reflects the coupon payments that Moody's expects to be missed for at
least the next several years.
The stable outlook on IKB's E BFSR reflects (i) the fact that the rating is already at its lowest possible level
and (ii) Moody's view that upward pressure -- i.e. without external support -- is unlikely in the near term given
the erosion in franchise value.
The stable outlook on the Ca ratings for IKB's profit participation rights reflects the limited further downside
while the ratings already factor in a likely loss of over 50%. The same applies to the stable outlook on the
Caa3 ratings for preferred shares (Funding Trust I & II) and silent participations, although with somewhat
lower loss expectations on a ten-year horizon. The outlook on the bank's senior unsecured debt and deposit
and the subordinated debt ratings is negative, given the ongoing uncertainty about the bank's sale to a third
party and the potential impact on the company's ultimate credit profile.
Headquartered in Duesseldorf, Germany, IKB reported total assets of EUR63.5 billion (restated) at the end of
March 2007. Group net profit was EUR37.9 million.