Mi preoccupa Lehman Broth, 04/14

[silvia80]

Buonasera,sono molto preoccupata,ho una discreta somma (97p.carico) e
oggi sono scese circa a 83.
Accetto consiglio per risollevarmi.

[Methos]

Per i consigli ci vorrebbe la sfera di cristallo. Purtroppo siamo in una situazione diffcile, molto difficile. c'è stata una accellerazione della crisi dopo febbraio veramente forte.

Io ho la lehman tv 2011 e per il momento la tengo. Certo giornate come oggi sono toste.

ciao

[Methos]

Lehman: We're Not Bear, and We're Not Screwed
Posted Mar 17, 2008 12:24pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: leh, bsc
From Silicon Alley Insider, March 17, 2008:

After reading our "Lehman Too Big To Fail?" post this morning, a high-level Lehman insider quickly reached out with two key reasons why Lehman (LEH) isn't in the same predicament as Bear Stearns (BSC). (Pictured at left, Lehman CEO and Chairman Richard Fuld.):

The Fed's new move -- giving broker-dealers access to the discount window -- changes the whole ball-game. If the Fed had made this move last Wednesday, the insider argues, Bear wouldn't have been toast.
Lehman's liquidity ratio is far stronger than Bear's was. This assertion is supported by a couple of analyst reports, which we've excerpted below.
We're not experts in mid-hurricane broker-dealer balance sheet analysis, so we'll leave the dissection of these arguments to those who are (anyone?). In the interests of balance, however, we did want to add a follow-up to our earlier note.

Analysts: Lehman Not Bear

Deutsche Bank's Mike Mayo:

"Lehman is Not Bear. 1) It has more liquidity, 2) It has support among its major counterparties, evidenced by an extension on Friday of a $2B working capital line with 40 banks (one issue w/Bear Stearns [BSC] seems to be that counterparties pulled in lines). 3) Its franchise is more diversified given almost half outside the US and an asset management business that is more than twice as large relative to its size (BSC was more plain vanilla). 4) It has a seasoned and experienced CEO (Bear's CEO was new). We maintain our Buy rating given a belief that LEH will weather this storm and our estimate of a price to adj. book value ratio of 83%.

"The industry issue seems more liquidity than solvency, and LEH protected itself more fully after it's problems similar to BSC in 1998. At year-end, it had $35B of excess liquidity combined with $63B of free collateral, implying $98B available for liquidity, or $70B more than needed for $28B of unsecured short-term debt (which includes the current portion of long-term debt). While it also has $180B of repo lines, we take comfort that 40 banks extended credit on Friday and believe that some of the repos are likely to be termed at least to some degree."

Buckingham Research's James Mitchell and John Grassano:

"Given the rapid deterioration of liquidity at BSC last week, we thought it was paramount to evaluate the liquidity positions of the other four major stand alone broker dealers. While we never thought it would come down to such a dire scenario (admittedly our mistake) -- a company with $35 billion in liquidity effectively being shut down -- through this analysis it seems clear that BSC was in a somewhat uniquely challenging situation when the market's confidence in the company vanished.

"For example, as noted above, total liquidity (cash, other liquid assets, and the borrowing value of unencumbered assets) at BSC was $35 billion. As a percentage of total assets, this was the lowest in the group at 9% and the only broker dealer to be below 10% - despite being the smallest firm. In contrast, the second smallest firm, Lehman Brothers (although double the size of BSC), has the highest percentage of liquidity at 25% of total assets.

"Secondly, we would point out that BSC had significant 'net' repo borrowing positions (repo financing minus repo lending) of $74.5 billion - more than double its liquidity position and compared to just $19 billion at LEH. In other words, as other firms refused to provide repo financing to BSC, the company didn't have enough overnight repo loans outstanding that it could call in to repay the financing. This mismatch put a significant strain on cash in the short-term as competitors terminated repos. While BSC had a significant net lending position in its securities lending/borrowed book, securities lending agreements are typically longer than overnight (unlike most repos), and thus could not be pulled fast enough to pay down the repo lines. And even including the securities loaned/borrowed, BSC was the only broker in a 'net borrower' position in terms of collateralized agreements (all other were in a net lending position).

"Lastly, BSC's sizable prime brokerage business also contributed to its downfall. And we can see that in the "net payables" data. Customer payables include, among other things, free credit balances of prime brokerage clients. With gross payables of $87 billion and net payables of $35 billion, this was a sizable liability for an institution the size of BSC. Basically, when prime brokerage and clearing clients made a 'run on the bank' (i.e. demanding their cash balances back), this put an additional and sizable cash burden on BSC."

(Pictured above: Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld.)

[Pecunia non olet]

questo grafico andrebbe mostrato a quelli che erano terrorizzati per il "crollo" dei cct..

[fabry18]

Che vuoi fare, vendere in perdita? Io non ci penso minimamente, certo lo scenario è grigio...diciamo così.....ma io mantengo la calma, se da qui al 2014 i fratelli Lehman hanno tirato il botto....avremo problemi molto seri....di conseguenza penso che faranno di tutto per tenere in piedi le banche d'affari americane.

[paritre]

anch'io ho in carico a circa 96 il 5% del mio portafoglio, scad. 2014 e quel grafico fa certamente rabbrividire.Stringiamo i denti e aspettiamo che la tempesta passi.

[The_Punischer]

Originalmente inviato da silvia80

Buonasera,sono molto preoccupata,ho una discreta somma (97p.carico) e
oggi sono scese circa a 83.
Accetto consiglio per risollevarmi.

insomma cerchi 1 spalla su cui piangere......

Se sei Bona se ne Puo' parlare.....

Casomai nn ti piaccia il consiglio, eccotene 1 altro di riserva (che vale per te e per gli altri come te): "Hai voluto la Bicicletta ??..... Ora PEDALA !!!"

Tradotto: chi te lo ha fatto fare ad entrare su 1 titolo bancario americano cosi' lungo e con cosi' tanti soldi ??

Non e' certo da ieri che si parla di crisi del credito in america.


PS

Chi ti scrive ha comprato da ca 1 mese GENERAL MOTORS Acceptance Corp per gli Amici -GMAC- MA SCAD LUGLIO 2008 !! che mi rende un 8-12% circa (ora come ora nn ricordo)


Risultato.... mentre la tua obb ha visto L'ABISSO la mia e' restata praticamente ferma al valore di acquisto (perde uno 0,20-0,30)

Se tutto va bene, io tra 3-4 mesi mi riprendo i soldi, e se fallisce.... nessun problema, visto che ho messo sul titolo 1 piccola percentuale del mio capitale.

[The_Punischer]

Originalmente inviato da Pecunia non olet

questo grafico andrebbe mostrato a quelli che erano terrorizzati per il "crollo" dei cct..

AI PREZZI DI QUESTI GG, I CCT DOVREBBERO ESSERE COMPRATI, altro che terrore del (loro) Crollo !!!

[matabo]

Originalmente inviato da The_Punischer

AI PREZZI DI QUESTI GG, I CCT DOVREBBERO ESSERE COMPRATI, altro che terrore del (loro) Crollo !!!

Ma che scherzi? non sai che l'italia sta per dichiarare il default?

[blackpool]

Originalmente inviato da silvia80

Buonasera,sono molto preoccupata,ho una discreta somma (97p.carico) e
oggi sono scese circa a 83.
Accetto consiglio per risollevarmi.

Stai serena. Certo non sono bei tempi ma in fondo nemmeno Bear Stearns e' fallita semplicemente come dicono al loro indirizzo web sono stati acquistati da JP Morgan che si fara' carico delle loro obbligazioni. Paradossalmente quando la crisi e' sistemica un fallimento genererebbe a catena altri fallimenti e quindi le istituzioni finanziarie fanno di tutto per prevenirli.
N.