Monitor valute h.y. continua

[magallo]

The performance of the Australian dollar (AUD) continues to impress in the light of the ongoing market turmoil. Although volatility has pushed back upwards to levels last seen in 2003, the AUD has continued to perform well, and has pushed back up towards the multi-year highs seen in early last November.

Given its status as a high yielding carry trades currency, with a large current account deficit, one would have expected the AUD to suffer somewhat given rising uncertainty in markets. Carry trades consist of the borrowing or selling of currencies with low interest rates and the purchase of currencies with high rates. However the currency has experienced an enduring run of strength since mid-January and looks set to be pushing higher due to rising yield differentials and continued strength in economic performance.

Yield is still an effective driver of currency performance, and although it has been the lower yield currencies which have performed better recently, when market nervousness calms - even for short periods - the higher yielding currencies start to gain. Because of the 125 basis points of Fed cuts in January and a 25 basis points hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on February 5, the yield differential has now widened to over 400 basis points in favour of AUD over USD. The cash target rate now stands at seven per cent, the highest for 12 years.

The RBA cited inflation as the main reason for the continued tightening as its favoured trimmed mean measure of CPI rose 3.4 per cent year-on-year to December, noticably higher than the upper limit of the target band. However, while inflation may remain on the high side for the coming months, the RBA should now be done with their tightening, as other economic indicators have started to hint that the three hikes of the past six months are starting to have an effect.

Given fears of a global slowdown, economic performance has been strikingly robust over the last six months.

However, the latest data has moderated somewhat. Building approvals fell a considerable 16 per cent month-on-month in December. Retail sales were also a little weaker than expected for December although still up 0.5 per cent month-on-month. While the FX market continues to be driven by the equity markets and general swings in risk aversion/appetite, the data may not count for everything for the moment. However, when the dust starts to settle, the moderating data should start to have some repercussions for AUD.

AUD gained strongly when the Fed cuts rates - not just from a yield viewpoint - but also as equity markets were buoyed and nervousness subsided for brief periods. Our concern is: now that with the large Fed cuts in the price, there is little left to counter-balance any bad news seen in the market.

This leaves risk assets in quite a precarious position as the Fed has already sent in the cavalry and there is little left to sooth markets if we see bad news on the wires.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has followed a broadly similar path to the AUD for some time now and while we had expected the NZD to under-perform relative to its neighbour, the pair has traded sideways since mid-December.

Given that rates have likely peaked in New Zealand, and the economic picture has been slowing for some time, this is the case, but as the AUD, the main concern is that any bad news will not now be balanced as it has so far, by prospective Fed actions, and that riskier assets will suffer.

[Yu Yu Yu]

tutto cambia in men che non si dica......

AUD a 1,7154


ps: è sempre questione di timeframe

[batti38]

Stavo seguendo sia AUD, che NZD.
Sulprimo sono tentato di entrare, sul secondo ancora no.

Voi che pensate?

[batti38]

AUD a 1.726..ho l'impressione che sia una salita lenta e regolare.

[magallo]

Dollar doldrums
Martin Feldstein


When the euro's value reached an all-time high of $1.52, Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), told the press that he was concerned about its rapid appreciation and wanted to "underline" the US Treasury's official policy of supporting a strong dollar. Several European finance ministers subsequently echoed a similar theme.

In reality, of course, the US does not have a dollar policy - other than letting the market determine its value. The US government does not intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the dollar and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy certainly is not directed toward such a goal.

Nor is the Fed specifically aiming to lower the dollar's value. Although cutting the Federal Funds interest rate from 5.25 per cent in the summer of 2007 to 3 per cent now contributes to dollar depreciation, this was aimed at stimulating a weakening economy.

Nevertheless, all US Treasury secretaries, going back at least to Robert Rubin in the Clinton administration, have repeated the mantra that "a strong dollar is good for America" whenever they were asked about the dollar's value. But, while this seems more responsive than "no comment," it says little about the course of current and future US government action.

Indeed, the Treasury's only explicit currency goal now is to press the Chinese to raise the value of the renminbi, thereby reducing the dollar's global trade-weighted average.

The pressure on China is, however, entirely consistent with the broader US policy of encouraging countries to allow the financial market to determine their currencies' exchange rate.

There is, of course, truth to the statement that a strong dollar benefits the American public, since it allows Americans to buy foreign products at a lower cost in dollars. But, while the declining dollar does reduce Americans' purchasing power, the magnitude of this effect is not large, because imports account for only about 15 per cent of US gross domestic product. A 20 per cent dollar depreciation would therefore reduce Americans' purchasing power by only 3 per cent. At the same time the lower dollar makes American products more competitive in global markets, leading to increased exports and reduced imports.

The dollar has declined during the past two years against not only the euro but also against most other currencies, including the Japanese yen and the renminbi. On a real trade-weighted basis, the dollar is down about 13 per cent relative to its value in March 2006.

This improved competitiveness of American goods and services is needed to shrink the massive US trade deficit. Even with the dollar's decline and the resulting 25 per cent rise in US exports over the past two years, the US still had an annualised trade deficit at the end of the fourth quarter of 2007 of about $700 billion (5 per cent of GDP). Because US imports are nearly twice as large as US exports, it takes a 20 per cent increase in exports to balance a 10 per cent increase in imports. That means that the dollar must fall substantially further to shrink the trade deficit to a sustainable level.

Investors around the world want to reduce their dollar holdings for three major reasons. First, interest rates are higher on euro and British bonds than on similar US securities, making investments in those currencies more rewarding than investments in dollars.

Second, since the US has a large trade deficit that can only be cured by a more competitive dollar (while the eurozone countries collectively have a trade surplus) investors expect a trend decline in the dollar. That predictable dollar decline makes the relative return on holding dollar bonds even lower than the interest-rate differential alone implies.

Finally, investors are adding nearly a trillion dollars worth of net dollar securities to their positions every year, thus increasing the risk of continued dollar accumulation. With a lower total yield and increased portfolio risk, it is not surprising that investors worldwide want to sell dollars.

Although individual foreign investors can sell the dollar securities they own, they can only sell them to other foreign investors. As long as the US has a current account deficit, the stock of foreign-owned claims on the US economy must rise.

But when foreign investors don't want to continue to hold dollar securities, their attempts to sell them will push down their value until the combination of reduced exposure and reduced fear of further dollar decline makes them willing to hold the outstanding stock of dollar securities.

Instead of simply wishing that the dollar would stop falling, European governments need to take steps to stimulate domestic demand to replace the loss of sales and jobs that will otherwise accompany the more competitive dollar.

This is not an easy task, because the ECB must remain vigilant about rising inflation, and because many EU countries maintain large fiscal deficits.

While the ECB has limited room for manoeuvre, regulatory changes and revenue-neutral shifts in the tax structure (for example, a temporary investment tax credit financed by a temporary increase in the corporate tax rate) could provide the stimulus needed to offset declining net exports. It is therefore important that EU governments turn their attention to this challenge.

• Prof. Feldstein, a professor of economics at Harvard, was formerly chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors.

[Yu Yu Yu]

Originalmente inviato da batti38

AUD a 1.726..ho l'impressione che sia una salita lenta e regolare.

in un grafico storico mi sembra che nei quattro anni scorsi sia stata disegnata una figura d'inversione


non capisco nulla di AT

[batti38]

Io stò a guardare in particolare NZD e AUD, ma onestamente non sò dove pescare.

Il NZD forse è un po' più volatile e per un rendimento netto di poco superiore penso sia preferibile l'AUD.

L'idea era di comprare l'AUD verso 1.75,ma chissà se ci arriverà mai, anche valori come 1.71-1.72 sono discreti, ma visto come vanno le cose non sò bene cosa aspettarmi.

Sul NZD era mia intenzione comprare sopra quota 2, e fino ad ora ci ha solo gironzolato intorno...mah

[batti38]

Cercando di riportare questo thread di interesse comune chiedo a magallo di aggiungere al suo primo post il link al vecchio monitor....

[6massimo]

ho visto su Fitch che l' Australia come rischio paese ha rating AA ( ad esempio il Brasile ha BB...) A parte il fatto che comprando un Bei od un Birs il rating per il rischio emittente è AAA...Fa riflettere che l' Aud ha un rendimento del 6,57 netto mentre il Real solo 9,27 netto... ( solo il 2,7% di differenza di rendimento con un passaggio di rating da AA a BB...)

[batti38]

Originalmente inviato da 6massimo

ho visto su Fitch che l' Australia come rischio paese ha rating AA ( ad esempio il Brasile ha BB...) A parte il fatto che comprando un Bei od un Birs il rating per il rischio emittente è AAA...Fa riflettere che l' Aud ha un rendimento del 6,57 netto mentre il Real solo 9,27 netto... ( solo il 2,7% di differenza di rendimento con un passaggio di rating da AA a BB...)

Il rischio paese non conta tanto con il cambio, guarda gli Usa ad esempio.

Rating AAA e dollaro svalutato di tantissimo in poco tempo.