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Per chi è interessanto al dollaro canadese
The Canadian dollar absorbed the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s well-anticipated 50 basis points interest rate cut on April 22 with little trouble. This latest easing brought the overnight target rate down to three per cent, which means the cumulative easing to date is 150 basis points. In the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which followed several days later, there were additional insights into the BoC's assessment of the Canadian economy as well as the outlook for policy.

The biggest change in the bank's forecasts and baseline scenario since the MPR update back in January has been the deterioration in the US growth outlook, and while a number of Canadian economic indicators have continued to hold up fairly well, slower US growth increases the downside risk to Canadian growth going forward.

Inflation has been slightly lower than expected and is forecast to hold below the two per cent target into 2010. However, the risks to inflation are now balanced where as they were previously tilted to the downside. After stripping out temporary/cyclical factors, the BoC estimates that the underlying rate of inflation is around two per cent, basically on target.

Meanwhile, the output gap has been running above zero for several years but the BoC now estimates it to be just 0.4 per cent and that it will fall back into negative territory into the second half of 2008 and excess capacity will persist into 2009. This should also result in downward pressure on inflation even if some of the other temporary factors restraining prices begin to subside.

Domestic demand remains the linchpin of Canadian growth, and indeed, it has held up remarkably well. The continued health of the labour market alongside high wages and real incomes remain solid supports for consumption. The unemployment rate recently ticked up to six per cent, but that is still near 36-year lows, while the labour participation rate remains at historic highs. So while the BoC anticipates some softening in the labour market in the coming year, that softening will come from a very strong base and should leave consumption at still healthy levels.

That said, it is clear that the BoC remains quite concerned about downside risks to growth emanating from the US. Against that backdrop, and alongside the downgraded global growth outlook, the BoC has maintained its easing bias, stating that further easing is likely. But the BoC said that the timing of further rate cuts depends on "the evolution of the global economy and domestic demand, and their impact on inflation in Canada". That is a change from the previous two statements when they said further easing was likely in the "near-term". It basically means that while they could well cut rates again, it might not happen at their next scheduled policy announ-cement (June 10). And that makes things a bit more interesting for the currency.

As it happens the CAD, and USD-CAD in particular, have stabilised relative to the beginning of the easing cycle late last year and that stability may reduce the need for further easing. And even if there is a sense internally that the BoC might be done cutting rates, there could be reluctance to signal as much in public, as the perceived end of the easing cycle by market participants could, and most likely would, see market interest rates push higher quickly. Not only would that potentially dampen the economic outlook via slower growth and more pressure on credit markets, but it might also create unwanted upward pressure on the CAD.

Upcoming Fed policy decisions clearly have implications for the USD in general and USD-CAD specifically. Indeed, recent market speculation that the Fed could signal a pause in its own easing cycle after the recent anticipated rate cut has aided a healthy rebound in the USD versus the majors. To the extent that those expectations are met and the USD is able to continue to recover, there are probably further upside risks to USD-CAD. The fact that there is not another FOMC meeting until the end of June may have also been a consideration in the BoC's decision to introduce the possibility of a pause in its easing cycle, as it will not be forced to keep playing 'catch up' with what has been a very aggressive Fed easing cycle this year.

There are, of course, other factors to consider in the outlook for the CAD, and energy prices remain one of the most critical in that respect. Despite the USD's bounce, energy prices remain high, and while they do, it is difficult to get bearish on the CAD. In the very near-term, there is some scope for broad USD strength to carry through into USD-CAD. Given the still-high level of crude oil and natural gas and barring unexpected weakness in upcoming Canadian economic indicators, we generally expect the CAD to continue to hold up well in the near-term.

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Il NZD ha iniziato a salire, siamo a 2.05..., mentre l'AUD rimane stabile a cavalo dell 1.63

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Il 4 giugno scorso il Brasile ha innalzato il SELIC di 50 punti base al 12,25%. La mia vagonata di Brazil 2028 10,25% ha miracolosamente retto quota 90...per ora.
L'inflazione dei poracci (INPC) e' al 5,90%, quella dei borghesi (IPCA) al 5,04% (dati di aprile).