Merrill, Citi, UBS, Goldman, Bear Stearns & il credit crunch - 4

[luposurf]

Disamina fatta molto bene anche se è un po' poco approfondito il passaggio secondo il quale le banche con la semplice cartolarizzazione degli impieghi sono riuscite a farli uscire dal bilancio e hanno così aggirato i controlli sul capitale di vigilanza.

[giveme5]

Perdite subprime della 2a + grande banca Japan,
e rendiconto delle perdite ad ora dichiarate in Asia.

Nella fase attuale però queste notizie negative non condizionano il mercato (anzi, la borsa giapponese ha chiuso con + 2,9%).


Mizuho Profit Drops by 50% as Subprime Losses Swell (Update5)
By Finbarr Flynn and Ichiro Suzuki

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-largest bank by revenue, posted a 50 percent drop in full- year profit after losing $5.5 billion on mortgage securities, the most reported by an Asian company.

Net income fell to 310 billion yen ($3 billion) for the year ended March 31, below a January forecast of 480 billion yen, Tokyo-based Mizuho said in a preliminary earnings statement today. Analysts expected profit of 369 billion yen, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Mizuho's securities unit recorded 400 billion yen of trading losses, mostly from writing down the value of investments related to U.S. subprime mortgages. The bank's shares rose the most in a week after Mizuho said the division reduced holdings of overseas asset-backed securities by almost 80 percent to 100 billion yen.

``Management of the securities company was very bad,'' said Edwin Merner, who oversees $2 billion as president of Atlantis Investment Research Corp. in Tokyo. ``It's good that they're aggressively writing down these securities now.''

Mizuho gained 5.2 percent to 407,000 yen at the 3 p.m. close of trading. The shares have plummeted 48 percent in the past year, wiping out about $40 billion of market value.

The bank may have lost 83 billion yen in the fiscal fourth quarter, based on its 393 billion yen profit for the first nine months. That would be the first quarterly loss since at least June 2004. Mizuho's securities division lost 220 billion yen in the quarter, according to the release.

Bad Timing

Trading losses at Mizuho Securities Co. were ``mainly due to markdowns related to securitization products amid the dislocation in the credit markets stemming from the U.S. subprime loan issues,'' Mizuho said in the statement.

Losses at the brokerage unit, led by Keisuke Yokoo, have forced Mizuho to postpone merging the unit with Shinko Securities Co. to create Japan's third-biggest securities firm. Last month, Mizuho postponed the transaction until next year as subprime losses forced it to revise the deal's terms for a second time.

``Long term, we must question whether the Mizuho group is properly governing its securities arm,'' said Keisuke Moriyama, a Tokyo-based banking analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc.

Mizuho waded into the business of repackaging and selling U.S. debt securities just as the market began showing signs of collapsing, hiring a team of bankers from Calyon, the investment bank of France's Credit Agricole SA, in December 2006.

A year later, Mizuho suspended trading and creating U.S. collateralized debt obligations containing asset-backed securities or high-yield corporate loans.

Writedown League

The former Calyon team underwrote $4.4 billion of CDO deals before the markets seized, according to Asset-Backed Alert, an industry newsletter. Mizuho was the 18th-largest underwriter of mortgage-bond CDOs during 2006 and 2007.

Sales of CDOs, used to repackage assets such as mortgage bonds and buyout loans into new securities with varying risks, have plunged as U.S. homeowner defaults sparked unprecedented downgrades and record bank writedowns. CDOs mainly backed by high-risk company loans, such as debt for private equity deals, are called collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs.

Asian banks have accounted for a small fraction of the $245 billion of global writedowns and credit losses announced since the beginning of 2007. Swiss bank UBS AG has written off $38 billion of assets since the credit squeeze started in July.

Mizuho's bigger rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. lost 55 billion yen on subprime-related holdings for the nine months through December. Bank of China Ltd. on March 25 announced $1.3 billion of subprime writedowns for 2007.

Stagnant Economy

Compounding Mizuho's woes is an economy forecast by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley to follow the U.S. into a recession. Confidence among large manufacturers is at a four-year low and businesses plan to reduce investment, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed last week.

Mizuho is the second Japanese bank this week to fall short of its own earnings target, following regional lender Fukuoka Financial Group Inc. Fukuoka Financial said April 7 that full- year profit was probably 2.5 billion yen, 92 percent less than its forecast, after booking investment losses and additional costs for possible bad loans.

Lending by Japan's 10 so-called city banks, including Mizuho and larger rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., fell for a 12th straight month in March, the central bank said yesterday

[zloty]

ho provato a confrontare bond bancari e mi risulta che tra tutti i bond con yield più alto sono alto sono della lehman (considerando banche importanti)
addirittura titoli della bear sono tornati con quotazioni superori a 90

[i98mark]

Originalmente inviato da zloty

ho provato a confrontare bond bancari e mi risulta che tra tutti i bond con yield più alto sono alto sono della lehman (considerando banche importanti)
addirittura titoli della bear sono tornati con quotazioni superori a 90

Bear oramai é di JP Morgan... oggi la seconda controlla circa il 45% del capitale della prima... d'altronde la seconda versione dell'accordo (quella con il prezzo di acquisto a 10$ per share, per intenderci) era stata blindata con un accordo che, in conformità delle leggi del Delaware, in cui entrambe le banceh sono incorporate, consentiva al board di BSC di emettere a favore di JPM un pacchetto di nuove azioni equivalente ad una % dell'equity totale (c'è il valore sul 3D di BSC, ma se non ricordo male, circa il 40%)

Attenzione a Lehman che è ancora ben invischiata nell'immobiliare USA, anche per aver fatto pochi writedons sui relativi titoli...

Arrivato un report di S&P che profetizza ulteriori perdite da questo comparto e penso andrà a soffrirne chi ha ancora molta spazzatura nascosta sotto il tappeto, piuttosto che chi ha già svalutato prudenzialmente già su valori molto bassi.

S&P promette di tenere d'occhio con attenzione ratings e outlooks del settore e di rivederli in considerazione dei risultati che saranno postati dalle banche in questo primo trimestre.

Guardando più lontano, con il picco verso il basso del credit crunch da raggiungersi nel 2008-2009, S&P pronostica importanti downgrades nel settore ed anche qualche insolvenza, anche perché questo ciclo creditizio negativo sarà di maggiore intensità di quelli precedenti.


Avviso ai naviganti: per chi volesse accumulare sui bond bancari, specie USA, ma non solo, attendere almeno la presentazione delle trimestrali Q1/2008 e la revisione di rating ed outlook settoriali da parte delle agencies.

Il bollettino di presentazione del report, disponibile a pagamento...

S&P Report Says U.S. Banks Focused On Real Estate Face Earnings Challenges Ahead

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) April 10, 2008--U.S. financial institutions with
business profiles that have a heavy concentration in real estate may suffer a
disproportionate negative effect on earnings relative to those financial
institutions with a higher degree of diversification, according to a Standard
& Poor's Ratings Services report published today.

Given the weakened housing market outlook and increased probability that U.S. banks and thrifts will experience higher credit losses, Standard & Poor's will be reviewing its sector ratings and rating outlooks, specifically for those firms with a high focus on both residential and commercial real estate.

Clearly, those with credit exposures and nonperforming assets that are outsized relative to their peers are most vulnerable to negative rating actions and/or outlook revisions in a hard landing economic scenario.

"We believe the large losses posted to date so early in this credit
cycle and the continued rapid pace of loan deterioration indicate that this
credit cycle is poised to be more severe than prior ones," said Standard &
Poor's credit analyst Victoria Wagner. "If we do approach a new peak of cycle scenario in 2008-2009, we could see major downgrades and even some
insolvencies."

During the past three years, Standard & Poor's made it clear that its
ratings incorporated a normal credit cycle downturn--that is, when credit
losses at banks start rising on an accelerated basis, according to "U.S. Banks
With Heavy Concentrations In Real Estate Face Earnings Challenges Ahead."

However, this current credit cycle, which began with the weakening of the
subprime mortgage market in late 2006 and early 2007, is anything but normal, given the fallout of unprecedented risk layering in residential mortgage credit and a secondary market liquidity squeeze.

The secondary market liquidity conditions are now affecting most asset classes and not only mortgage loans, negatively impacting the pricing and execution of loan securitizations.

Furthermore, today's market is facing uncharted waters between the sheer size of the subprime mortgage market, the growth of nontraditional mortgage products with layered underwriting risks, and the shutdown of secondary market liquidity for loans and structured securities.

Standard & Poor's review of the sector ratings, which it will release at
a later date, will conclude with the financial institutions' reporting of
first quarter results and by the end of May

[giveme5]

Originalmente inviato da i98mark

............. Avviso ai naviganti: per chi volesse accumulare sui bond bancari, specie USA, ma non solo, attendere almeno la presentazione delle trimestrali Q1/2008 e la revisione di rating ed outlook settoriali da parte delle agencies.

Questo è il calendario
.

[giveme5]

Si riparte da qui
.

[stockuccio]

purtroppo non credo ci si possa aspettare granché dalle prossime trimestrali, almeno vedendo l'ultima iniziativa di Citi ...

[iuessei1981]

Trimestrale in rosso per Wachovia, aumento di capitale da 7$ mld

Finanzaonline.com - 14.4.08/12:48

Risultati trimestrali negativi per Wachovia. La banca statunitense ha archiviato il primo trimestre 2008 con una perdita pari a 350 milioni di dollari oppure 393 milioni di dollari (ovvero 20 centesimi) se si escludono le poste straordinarie. Secondo quanto si apprende in una nota diramata dalla società, il dividendo trimestrale è stato ridotto a 0,375 dollari per azione ordinaria, mentre il giro d'affari si è attestato a 7,9 miliardi di dollari. Nel periodo il gruppo a stelle e strisce ha registrato accantonamenti per perdite su crediti per 2,8 miliardi. Wachovia a margine della presentazione dei conti trimestrali ha annunciato alcune iniziative per rafforzare la base patrimoniale e la flessibilità, un aggiornamento che riflette l'attuale situazione del mondo immobiliare. Tra le azioni, la società intende raccogliere capitale attraverso un'offerta pubblica, che riguarderà sia azioni ordinarie sia azioni privilegiate convertibili per un valore complessivo di 7 miliardi di dollari.



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3D Esaurito, continuiamo qui:

http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/s...4#post17009024

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