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Vecchio 28-11-12, 15:23   #781 (permalink)
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Il Rand sudafricano ha superato nuovamente quota 11,50; ne ho approfittato per incrementare le BEI 2013 in mio possesso. Speriamo bene.....
Puoi darci l'ISIN per favore?
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Vecchio 28-11-12, 16:13   #782 (permalink)
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Sto monitorando da un pò questo titolo :XS0082720698 IBRD 28 SRS 638 0

oggi bel balzo del 8,96 %, ma qualcuno sa per quale motivo è salito così tanto ?



bye
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Vecchio 28-11-12, 17:34   #783 (permalink)
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Sto monitorando da un pò questo titolo :XS0082720698 IBRD 28 SRS 638 0

oggi bel balzo del 8,96 %, ma qualcuno sa per quale motivo è salito così tanto ?



bye

Non veniva trattata dall' 8 novembre .......... nelle altre piazze è sempre ferma.

33,00 Obbligazioni FRA
32,50 Obbligazioni EBS
36,25 Obbligazioni TLO
31,91 Obbligazioni DUS
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Vecchio 29-11-12, 14:13   #784 (permalink)
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BRASILE : tassi bassi e real debole , questa la volontà della banca centrale brasialiana almeno per tutto il 2013.
Probabilmente andremo a 3 (EUR/BRL) , quota interessante per entrare , ma al momento le emissioni sul MOT mi sembrano troppo vicine a scadenza per provare una entrata ..... vediamo se durante l'anno ce ne saranno delle nuove.




Brazil Signals Key Rate to Stay at Minimum for Record Period
By Matthew Malinowski - Nov 29, 2012


Brazil signaled it plans to keep its benchmark rate at a record low for a period that economists predict will be the longest in history to prop up an economy heading toward its worst two-year performance in a decade.

Policy makers last night kept the Selic rate at 7.25 percent, ending the second-longest streak of reductions in an effort to prevent inflation from accelerating. The unanimous decision, which was forecast by all 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, took into account the “the balance of risks for inflation,” the board said in its statement, which was almost identical to last month’s announcement.

Central bankers led by President Alexandre Tombini reiterated their intent to keep rates steady for a “prolonged period” as they try to keep inflation within their 2.5-to-6.5 percent target range without derailing the economy’s recovery. Economists surveyed by the central bank forecast that the Selic will remain unchanged through 2013.

“Interest rates are at a level that allow for the economy to rebound at a pace moderate enough to contain inflation below the upper range of the target,” Marcelo Salomon, co-head for Latin America economics at Barclays Plc, said in a phone interview from New York. “The idea is to leave interest rates at a minimum for as long as possible.”

Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2014 rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 7.32 percent at 9:04 a.m. local time. The real strengthened 0.2 percent to 2.0896 per U.S. dollar.

Slowest Average
Brazil’s economy will post average economic growth of 2.23 percent a year in the 2011-2012 period, according to the median forecast in a central bank survey published this week. That would be the slowest two-year average since the 1.91 percent pace of 2002-2003.

Slower growth has failed to tame inflation, which accelerated to the fastest pace in nine months in mid-November and has remained above the central bank’s 4.5 percent target for more than two years.

Consumer prices, as measured by the IPCA-15 index, rose 5.64 percent in mid-November from 5.56 percent the previous month, and will remain above the target through at least next year, the central bank survey shows.

Borrowing Costs
In addition to reducing borrowing costs by 5.25 percentage points over the previous 10 meetings, President Dilma Rousseff’s administration has cut taxes, increased public spending and freed up billions of reais in credit to bolster a recovery that remains uneven.

In the aftermath of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the central bank kept the key rate at a record low 8.75 percent for nine months to boost growth.

“Economic growth has been moderate, and inflation is still worrisome for the central bank because it is still above target,” Fernando Fix, chief economist at Votorantim Asset Management, said in a telephone interview from Sao Paulo. “The economy has started to show signs of recovery, and the central bank is signaling that it’s important to keep an eye on inflation risks.”

Economists surveyed by the central bank expect growth to more than double next year, to 3.94 percent.

Tax Breaks
Retail sales rose for the fourth straight month in September, and tax breaks that were extended twice already led car sales to jump 19 percent in October from the previous month.

Still, industrial output fell in September for the first time in four months on a drop in machine and equipment investments.

While a government report on Nov. 30 is likely to show that gross domestic product growth accelerated in the third quarter to the fastest pace in more than a year, economists surveyed by the bank have reduced their forecast for 2013 in each of the past two weeks.

Growth this year shouldn’t surpass 1.5 percent, the same survey shows.

Tombini is forecasting that falling wholesale prices will help bring inflation back to its target by the third quarter of next year. Brazil’s IGP-M index, which is 60 percent weighted to wholesale prices, fell in November by 0.03 percent from the month before, the first decline since February.

Weaker Real
Economists say that is optimistic, and point to recent efforts by the government to weaken the real -- the worst- performing major currency this year -- as a new risk to the bank’s benign price outlook.

They’re forecasting prices will rise 5.4 percent in 2013, according to the latest bank survey.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega on Nov. 23 said that Brazil’s currency, which has declined 10.8 percent against the dollar this year, is still not at an “entirely satisfactory” level.

The divergence over Brazil’s inflation outlook mirrors the debate over interest rates. While analysts surveyed by the central bank expect policy makers to keep the benchmark rate unchanged throughout next year, traders are betting that policy makers will raise it to 8 percent by the end of 2013 to keep price increases under control, swap rates show.

The central bank will try to slow inflation by introducing credit curbs, such as higher reserve and capital requirements, before raising interest rates, said Italo Lombardi, economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

“The central bank will try not to hike rates all next year,” Lombardi said in a telephone interview from New York. “They are signaling that they seem to be conformable with the balance of risk of inflation and growth”

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Malinowski in Sao Paulo at mmalinowski@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net
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Vecchio 29-11-12, 19:24   #785 (permalink)
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Bandddd!!!! quando l'avevo detto io avevi detto di no

te si mato...
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Vecchio 29-11-12, 21:25   #786 (permalink)
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BRASILE : tassi bassi e real debole , questa la volontà della banca centrale brasialiana almeno per tutto il 2013.
Probabilmente andremo a 3 (EUR/BRL) , quota interessante per entrare , ma al momento le emissioni sul MOT mi sembrano troppo vicine a scadenza per provare una entrata ..... vediamo se durante l'anno ce ne saranno delle nuove.




Brazil Signals Key Rate to Stay at Minimum for Record Period
By Matthew Malinowski - Nov 29, 2012


Brazil signaled it plans to keep its benchmark rate at a record low for a period that economists predict will be the longest in history to prop up an economy heading toward its worst two-year performance in a decade.

Policy makers last night kept the Selic rate at 7.25 percent, ending the second-longest streak of reductions in an effort to prevent inflation from accelerating. The unanimous decision, which was forecast by all 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, took into account the “the balance of risks for inflation,” the board said in its statement, which was almost identical to last month’s announcement.

Central bankers led by President Alexandre Tombini reiterated their intent to keep rates steady for a “prolonged period” as they try to keep inflation within their 2.5-to-6.5 percent target range without derailing the economy’s recovery. Economists surveyed by the central bank forecast that the Selic will remain unchanged through 2013.

“Interest rates are at a level that allow for the economy to rebound at a pace moderate enough to contain inflation below the upper range of the target,” Marcelo Salomon, co-head for Latin America economics at Barclays Plc, said in a phone interview from New York. “The idea is to leave interest rates at a minimum for as long as possible.”

Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2014 rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 7.32 percent at 9:04 a.m. local time. The real strengthened 0.2 percent to 2.0896 per U.S. dollar.

Slowest Average
Brazil’s economy will post average economic growth of 2.23 percent a year in the 2011-2012 period, according to the median forecast in a central bank survey published this week. That would be the slowest two-year average since the 1.91 percent pace of 2002-2003.

Slower growth has failed to tame inflation, which accelerated to the fastest pace in nine months in mid-November and has remained above the central bank’s 4.5 percent target for more than two years.

Consumer prices, as measured by the IPCA-15 index, rose 5.64 percent in mid-November from 5.56 percent the previous month, and will remain above the target through at least next year, the central bank survey shows.

Borrowing Costs
In addition to reducing borrowing costs by 5.25 percentage points over the previous 10 meetings, President Dilma Rousseff’s administration has cut taxes, increased public spending and freed up billions of reais in credit to bolster a recovery that remains uneven.

In the aftermath of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the central bank kept the key rate at a record low 8.75 percent for nine months to boost growth.

“Economic growth has been moderate, and inflation is still worrisome for the central bank because it is still above target,” Fernando Fix, chief economist at Votorantim Asset Management, said in a telephone interview from Sao Paulo. “The economy has started to show signs of recovery, and the central bank is signaling that it’s important to keep an eye on inflation risks.”

Economists surveyed by the central bank expect growth to more than double next year, to 3.94 percent.

Tax Breaks
Retail sales rose for the fourth straight month in September, and tax breaks that were extended twice already led car sales to jump 19 percent in October from the previous month.

Still, industrial output fell in September for the first time in four months on a drop in machine and equipment investments.

While a government report on Nov. 30 is likely to show that gross domestic product growth accelerated in the third quarter to the fastest pace in more than a year, economists surveyed by the bank have reduced their forecast for 2013 in each of the past two weeks.

Growth this year shouldn’t surpass 1.5 percent, the same survey shows.

Tombini is forecasting that falling wholesale prices will help bring inflation back to its target by the third quarter of next year. Brazil’s IGP-M index, which is 60 percent weighted to wholesale prices, fell in November by 0.03 percent from the month before, the first decline since February.

Weaker Real
Economists say that is optimistic, and point to recent efforts by the government to weaken the real -- the worst- performing major currency this year -- as a new risk to the bank’s benign price outlook.

They’re forecasting prices will rise 5.4 percent in 2013, according to the latest bank survey.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega on Nov. 23 said that Brazil’s currency, which has declined 10.8 percent against the dollar this year, is still not at an “entirely satisfactory” level.

The divergence over Brazil’s inflation outlook mirrors the debate over interest rates. While analysts surveyed by the central bank expect policy makers to keep the benchmark rate unchanged throughout next year, traders are betting that policy makers will raise it to 8 percent by the end of 2013 to keep price increases under control, swap rates show.

The central bank will try to slow inflation by introducing credit curbs, such as higher reserve and capital requirements, before raising interest rates, said Italo Lombardi, economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

“The central bank will try not to hike rates all next year,” Lombardi said in a telephone interview from New York. “They are signaling that they seem to be conformable with the balance of risk of inflation and growth”

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Malinowski in Sao Paulo at mmalinowski@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net
Mi ero messo in testa di entrare in area 2.70/2.80 visti gli ultimi sviluppi concordo su un'entrata in area 3.00/3.20.Su quali titoli pensavi di entrare Band? Buona serata a tutti
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Vecchio 29-11-12, 23:01   #787 (permalink)
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Puoi darci l'ISIN per favore?

BEI 2013 8% ISIN XS0178483649 quotate sia sul tlx che sul mot a 102,8 circa.
Ci sono anche le 2015 isin XS0544798167 ma quotano 107.
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Vecchio 30-11-12, 10:17   #788 (permalink)
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Bandddd!!!! quando l'avevo detto io avevi detto di no

te si mato...
io l'avevo detto , dice ? vabbè ....
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Vecchio 30-11-12, 11:03   #789 (permalink)
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Mi ero messo in testa di entrare in area 2.70/2.80 visti gli ultimi sviluppi concordo su un'entrata in area 3.00/3.20.Su quali titoli pensavi di entrare Band? Buona serata a tutti

Per ora non ho idea , tutte le emissioni in essere sono prossime a scadenza .

PS: per prossime intendo periodi inferiori a 2 anni.
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Vecchio 30-11-12, 11:14   #790 (permalink)
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L' eldorado turco visto da Bank of America:
Corsi obbligazionari in aumento e lira turca in aumento (anche se la banca centrale dichiara retoricamente di non volere una lira troppo forte).
Ora come ora , la turchia è affidabile piu' di Russia, Isdraele e Sud Africa.



BofA Sees More Life in World-Beating Bond Advance: Turkey Credit
By Benjamin Harvey - Nov 29, 2012


Turkey’s first investment-grade rating in almost two decades kicked off the best month since January for bondholders, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch is among those saying there are more gains to come.

Yields on two-year notes dropped 110 basis points this month after Fitch Ratings upgraded the country on Nov. 5, the most among 19 major emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg and triple the decline for second-placed Poland. The investment- grade rating, the first since 1994, sent the cost of insuring Turkish debt using credit-default swaps to below that of higher- rated Russia, Israel and South Africa.

Enlarge image
BofA Sees More Life in World-Beating Bond Advance Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg
Skyscrapers stand on the horizon beyond residential properties in the Mecidiyekoy district of Istanbul.

Skyscrapers stand on the horizon beyond residential properties in the Mecidiyekoy district of Istanbul. Photographer: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg
.“Bonds remain the asset to hold in Turkey,” Arko Sen, a debt strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said by e-mail from London yesterday. “Given the ratings trajectory, foreign allocations to local bonds have room to increase.”

Turkish bonds are rewarding investors who bet on a country with the world’s largest current-account deficit after the U.S., a higher inflation rate than east European peers and a currency that was the worst performer against the dollar last year.

Yields hit a record low of 5.98 percent yesterday, extending their decline this year to 503 basis points, or 5.03 percentage points, also the biggest drop among the 19 major emerging markets. The drop in November was beaten this year only by the 157 basis-point decrease in January, Bloomberg data show.

Still Junk
Credit-default swaps, which pay out should a borrower renege on debt agreements, fell to 132 basis points yesterday, 15 points above a record low in 2006.

A subsequent upgrade from either Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s Investors Service would be needed for Turkish bonds to be certified as investment grade and included in some global indexes that would bring additional investment inflows.

S&P ranks Turkey two levels below investment grade after five straight increases since the aftermath of a currency crisis in 2001. Moody’s puts the country at its highest junk grade after three increases since 2005, the last in June this year.

Moody’s on Nov. 21 rejected arguments for an upgrade used by Fitch, citing risks in funding Turkey’s current-account deficit. It kept Turkey’s debt at Ba1. Moody’s said Turkey was the only country in Europe with a positive outlook. It didn’t give a schedule for its next review, saying a ratings action could occur at any time.

Dedicated Funds
I still think it’s possible that Moody’s will upgrade Turkey sometime during the first half of 2013, which should attract more traditional non-emerging markets-dedicated investors to buy Turkey bonds,” Esther Law, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London, said by e-mail yesterday. “I see potential for the local bond yield to go lower from here, especially as we see the usual first-quarter risk rally.”

The local-currency bond market is being boosted by central bank Governor Erdem Basci’s record-low interest rates as he tries to stimulate domestic demand.

The pace of economic growth declined to 2.9 percent in the second quarter, the slowest since a 2009 economic contraction. The increase in gross domestic product will probably accelerate to 4 percent in 2013 from 3.2 percent for 2012 as a whole, according to government estimates.

Basci lends to banks within a so-called corridor of 5.75 percent, the benchmark one-week repo rate, and an upper limit of 9 percent, the overnight lending rate. Banks can also finance themselves at competitive auctions using a one-month rate, which helped drive the average cost of funding to 5.63 percent as of Nov. 28, a record low.

Lira Rally
The lira strengthened 0.2 percent to 1.7879 against the dollar in Istanbul yesterday, bringing this year’s gain to 5.5 percent. That marks a turnaround from last year, when the currency dropped 18 percent against the dollar.

Investors took fright from surging loan demand that swelled the current-account deficit to $77.1 billion by the end of 2011, or about 10 percent of GDP. The deficit narrowed for an 11th month in September as imports waned, while inflation dropped to 7.8 percent last month from 10.5 percent at the end of 2011.

Bonds last year also plunged, with yields rising 390 basis points. Credit-default swaps surged to 300 basis points.

In the past month, Turkey’s swap prices have fallen 25 basis points to 137, as its creditworthiness improved. That put them below Russia at 145, Israel at 147 and South Africa at 157. Russia and South Africa are each rated three levels higher at Moody’s, and Israel is six levels higher.

Keep Going
The extra yield investors demand to hold Turkey’s dollar- denominated debt over U.S. Treasuries fell eight basis points to 176 yesterday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index. That gives Turkey the second-lowest rate in major eastern European markets, behind Poland. The extra yield for Hungary’s debt was double that for Turkey at 364 basis points, and the emerging market average was 284.

The lira will perform better and the market will get used to the easing rhetoric of the central bank, so Turkey will keep on outperforming its peers,” Bugra Bilgi, manager of the hedge fund at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS, Turkey’s biggest bank by stock market value, said in an e-mail from Istanbul yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Benjamin Harvey in Istanbul at bharvey11@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net
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