Repubblica Ellenica Vol 13 aspettando il rimbalzo...

[forzaGM]

....in attesa di rimbalzo... e buone notizie...
forza grecia

[giorgio81]

Originalmente inviato da forzaGM

....in attesa di rimbalzo... e buone notizie...
forza grecia

non ci sarà più il rimbalzo solo la fine mamma mia che casino!!!!

[gasta]

cavoli non si riesce a trovare nemmeno uno spunto tecnico per poter azzardare un rimbalzo, per dire i bond nn reagiscono neanche al rafforzamento dell'euro

[gasta]

<<Grecia: nuovo massimo per lo spread sul decennale a 483 punti base

Finanzaonline.com - 20.4.10/11:04

Spread ancora in allargamento per i titoli governativi greci, con quello del decennale salito rispetto al corrispondente tedesco a 483 punti base (468 ieri), nuovo massimo da quando è stato varato l´euro.>>

sarei interessato a vedere un grafico dello spread appunto tra grecie e bund...

[Pessimo Elemento]

sempre presente... oggi ho comprato la 2° tranche... ne ho pronta un'altra ma spero proprio di non doverla usare, perchè sarebbe in pieno default...

[Giutrader]

Oggi non mi aspettavo un'altra debacle. I tds lasciano circa 1.5 % ogni giorno.

In questo momento l'euro è in rialzo dello 0.15 a 1.35136

[alfonzocapone]

La Grecia, insieme agli altri "PIGS", nell'euro non ci doveva neppure entrare e solo la Bundesbank, ooppss..... volevo dire BCE, deciderà se e quando tirarlafuori dal burrone in cui si è lentamente calata grazie alla sua classe politica di incompetenti e corrotti (mi viene in mente l'Argentina e l'Italietta). A tutti i presenti qui (ovviamente) non interessa un fico se i Greci da domani non avranno di che mangiare, ma solo importa di recuperare le forti perdite dettate dalla naturale avidità (Gordon Gekko insegna...).
Adesso quindi rassegnatevi a subire l'ennessima capocciata sul muro di vetro, meditate sul senso della vita e fatevi in spiaggia una bella impepata di cozze alla faccia della sventura; tanto qui solo un miracolo potrà restituirvi il bottino.

[pollo3333]

...questo articolo del Financial Times ci da' un'idea di cosa potrebbe implicare per noi poveri investitori una ristrutturazione del debito Greco, che viene piu' o meno data come inevitabile anche se non si sa in quale forma.
L'operazione potrebbe essere non del tutto catastrofica per gli investitori....chissa'... e' da valutare se convenga saltare fuori subito in perdita, oppure rimanere sperando in una miracolosa ripresa (poco probabile, temo) o almeno in una gestione non catastrofica della ristrutturazione.
Se qualcuno ha esperienze su precedenti government debt restructuring, sarebbero utili indicazioni e consigli....



Markets gear up for Greek debt restructuring
By Anousha Sakoui and Kerin Hope

Published: April 19 2010 19:09 | Last updated: April 19 2010 19:09

In a world where the unthinkable has become thinkable, markets are now gearing up for an event many had not previously been factored into the realms of possibility.

Even as Greek bail-out discussions continue – talks between representatives of the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF were delayed on Monday by the volcanic ash cloud – market watchers are starting to question whether, in the long term, Greece can avoid a restructuring of its debts or even an outright default.

“One way to do this is to compare restructurings for emerging market sovereigns. Based on the defaults over the last 12 years the average long-term recovery rate is close to 70 per cent. Ultra-long Greek bonds currently trade at a price below this.”

Greek 10-year bond yields on Monday hit a new record high since the country joined the euro, with yields reaching 7.76 per cent and closing up 26 basis points.

The cost for investors to insure against a default on Greek bonds also hit a new high with five-year credit default swaps reaching 472bp, according to data providers CMA Datavision. It said current levels imply a probability of default of about 30 per cent over five years, higher than Iraq.

The IMF is expected to raise the question of debt restructuring at imminent meetings with the Greek finance ministry, according to one person with knowledge of the agenda. It is not likely to be a detailed discussion “just a pointed reminder of the debt forecast”, the person adds.

The IMF has already told the finance ministry informally that Greece’s debt will reach 150 per cent of GDP by 2014, according to this person. Greece’s debt to GDP level – 113 per cent in 2009 – is already the highest in the eurozone. The IMF calculates that Greece will need to find €120bn ($162bn) over the next three years.

In spite of these challenging numbers, finance ministry officials say default risk “is only a theoretical possibility”. The Greek government has not officially addressed the possibility of a restructuring, but it is expected that it might consider some form of liability management – ie, swapping short-dated bonds for longer-dated ones – later this year, according to one person familiar with the government’s thinking.
Debt restructuring covers a wide range of possible outcomes. At one extreme is a default event such as changing the terms of the bonds and imposing a haircut on creditors. However a softer option of liability management could ease refinancing pressure and avoid a default.

Some emerging market economies such as Lebanon and Mexico undertake liability management via regular bond exchanges, where investors tender their bonds for longer dated securities voluntarily. A similar model could be extended to Greece, some bankers have speculated, whereby investors could choose to tender a bond due in the short term in exchange for a longer term to pick up additional yield.

Voluntary is a key word, as some rating agencies would consider a debt exchange that was forced on bondholders as a default.

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, proposes that Greece uses a multi-year restructuring of its bond obligations as a way to lower the debt service burden similar to Mexico’s debt restructuring in the early 1980s. Then Mexico’s lenders stretched all debt obligations maturing over the following 14 years over a 27- year term. The effect was to smooth a refinancing “hump” of principal repayments into a manageable long-term stream of princplal and interest payments.

Greece faces a similar hump over the next five years. Mr Weinstein calculates that total debt service including interest will peak near €50bn in 2014 and, assuming no economic growth between now and then, that would equate to borrowing more than 20 per cent of GDP. Total debt service over the next 5.5 years totals €240bn, roughly equal to its current GDP.

“Investor scepticism of Greece’s ability to service its debt has its roots in an amortisation and debt service schedule that bunches principal payments over the next five years, with a second ‘hump’ in maturities building for 2019,” says Mr Weinstein. “Greece has to be allowed to replace each of its existing bonds with a longer-term self-amortising note.”

He estimates that Greece would save €140bn in debt payments over the next 5.5 years, with no haircut on principal required, if it followed a Mexico-style restructuring over 25 years.

Some analysts could view a restructuring positively. “We are in unchartered waters. If Greece were to default in an orderly manner, with an agreed debt restructuring, then the impact might at least be contained to Greece,” says Gary Jenkins, analyst at Evolution Securities.

But few believe a restructuring announcement is likely soon. “I dont think it’s likely that a restructuring would happen this year,” says HSBC’s Mr Major. “The longer the uncertainty around Greece goes on the more unsustainable the funding position becomes and markets will push for a restructuring.

“But Greece cannot be allowed to default in any way because of the risk of contagion and damage to the single currency. Dubai was a good example of how even the suggestion of restructuring, at the time it was called a ‘standstill agrement’; can shut down funding channels and make things a lot worse.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web

[gasta]

Originalmente inviato da gasta

cavoli non si riesce a trovare nemmeno uno spunto tecnico per poter azzardare un rimbalzo, per dire i bond nn reagiscono neanche al rafforzamento dell'euro

poi anke graficamente meglio lasciar perdere...cavoli almeno un piccolo rimbalzo..... si viene dal -10% in due settimane

[Pessimo Elemento]

"Based on the defaults over the last 12 years the average long-term recovery rate is close to 70 per cent. Ultra-long Greek bonds currently trade at a price below this.”

... quindi stando a questa statistica, in caso di default non avrei bisogno nemmeno di mediare...