ADB ha previsto che 3 miliardi di asiatici potrebbero diventare ricchi entro il 2050

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Il secolo asiatico, i policy maker coglieranno l'opportunità?
05 May 2011


a cura di Stefania Basso


ADB prevede che 3 miliardi di asiatici diventeranno ricchi entro il 2050 e che la regione potrebbe rappresentare il 51% della produzione globale entro la metà del secolo. Commento di Société Générale

In un'analisi provocatoria preparata per il 44° Incontro annuale dei Director della Asian Development Bank, la ADB ha previsto che 3 miliardi di asiatici potrebbero diventare ricchi entro il 2050 e che la regione potrebbe rappresentare il 51% della produzione globale entro la metà di questo secolo. Il documento si pone come un manifesto sul modo in cui l'Asia dovrebbe pianificare la propria struttura di policy, di regolamentazione e istituzionale per raggiungere questo obiettivo importante.

La ADB in realtà ha lanciato il sasso in Hanoi questa settimana quando ha presentato gli esponenti senior di politica monetaria della regione e i Ministri della Finanza con il manifesto “ Asia 2050 – realizzando il secolo asiatico”. Il report presenta due scenari sul modo in cui l'Asia si svilupperà potenzialmente nei prossimi 40 anni. Il primo scenario è più ottimistico e vede l'ascesa dell'Asia dominare l'economia globale con un reddito pro-capite più elevato rispetto alla media mondiale. Il pil dell'Asia aumenterebbe a 148 trilioni di dollari e rappresenterebbe il 51% della produzione globale nel 2050. il pil pro-capite in Asia salirebbe a 38.600 dollari rispetto alla media globale prevista per il 2050 pari a 36.600 dollari.

Lo scenario alternativo prevede che le economie asiatiche con una crescita più veloce – la RPC, l'India, l'Indonesia e il Vietnam – cadranno in quella che la ADB chiama “la trappola del medio reddito” di tassi di crescita in rallentamento e livelli di reddito stagnanti nel corso dei prossimi 5-10 anni. Nel caso in cui l'Asia perderà il momentum post-crisi, entro il 2050 l'Asia rappresenterebbe solo il 32% del pil globale nel 2050 e il pil pro-capite salirebbe a circa la metà dello scenario più ottimistico prospettato, raggiungendo solo 20.300 dollari nel 2050.

Fortunatamente l'esperienza passata ha mostrato che l'Asia è riuscita a giostrare con successo la trappola del medio reddito. La Corea del Sud ne è un esempio, soprattutto perché è caduta nella “trappola del medio reddito” all'inizio della crisi asiatica ma da allora è riuscita a superarla in modo positivo.

La ADB ha delineato i contorni dei principali cambiamenti necessari alla regione per ottenere il dominio entro la metà di questo secolo. Questi sono: 1) interventi nazionali strategici e di policy “) interventi collettivi regionali e 3) interattività dell'Asia con la comunità globale.

Il report di 145 pagine si pone anche come un manifesto nel modo in cui delinea le policy, i cambiamenti di regolamentazione e la struttura istituzionale necessari al raggiungimento di questo importante obiettivo.

ADB indica 7 economie in testa alla potenziale ascesa economica dell'Asia, includendo a sorpresa anche il Giappone. Cina, India, Indonesia, Giappone, Repubblica di Corea, Malesia e Thailandia, che attualmente hanno una popolazione totale di 3,1 miliardi di persone (il 78% dell'Asia) e un pil di 14,2 trilioni di dollari (87% dell'Asia). Entro il 2050 si prevede che la percentuale della popolazione scenderà al 73% ma il pil salirà al 90%. Difatti, queste sette economie rappresenteranno da sole il 45% del pil globale e il loro redito medio pro-capite, pari a 45.800 dollari, supererà di circa il 25% la media globale pari a 36.000 dollari. Secondo Société Générale l'Asia sarà in grado di raggiungere tale obiettivo.

FondiOnLine.it

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HANOI (AFP) – Reducing corruption and improving government accountability are the greatest challenges to making Asia the world's wealthiest region by 2050, says a draft report for the Asian Development Bank.

The study, released on Wednesday and discussed at the ADB's annual meeting in Vietnam, says Asia is undergoing a historic transformation.

"If it continues to grow on its recent trajectory, it could, by 2050, account for more than half of global gross domestic product (GDP), trade and investment, and enjoy widespread affluence," the report says.

Asia's proportion of global GDP, rising from 27 percent last year, would match its share of global population and a per capita income of $38,600 would leave the region as well off as Europe is today, it says.

Countries from the Pacific Ocean to Central Asia face many challenges if they are to achieve this, but underlying them all is a need for stronger institutions of governance, says the report aimed at regional policymakers and business leaders.

"The recent deterioration in the quality and credibility of national political and economic institutions (illustrated by rising corruption) is a serious concern", says the bank.

Data from the World Bank Institute showed a "clear retreat in voice, accountability and political stability" in the region between 2008 and 2009.

While some places in Asia, notably Singapore and Hong Kong, are rated as among the world's least corrupt, many others are among the worst.

"Asia must modernise governance and retool its institutions with an emphasis on transparency, accountability and enforceability," the ADB report says.

"Although daunting, the eradication of corruption is critical for all countries to maintain social and political stability and retain legitimacy."

Other countries should look to Japan, Singapore and South Korea as models, it says.

Demands for greater accountability, along with a greater voice, will come from Asia's expanding middle class but the form of their civic participation will generally be different from that of Western democracies, the report says, because traditional hierarchies will not be set aside in a such a short time.

The uprisings against authoritarian regimes in the Middle East have shown that "the quality of communication and the mutual respect between those who govern and those who are governed will become paramount" as new social media and other tools become available, the bank says.

Effective governance is necessary to manage the region's other challenges, the report adds -- among them the "truly staggering" rate of urbanisation and a need to reduce social inequalities and to take the lead in energy efficiency.

As its share of global GDP rises Asia should also have a roughly equivalent proportion of world financial assets, based on a new model of finance built on lessons learned from past global crises, the report says.

Continued rapid growth will also require leadership in science and technology, it adds.

Meeting those challenges and achieving the "Asian Century" would bring affluence to about three billion more Asians by 2050 as growth spreads, says the report, which sees future growth led by China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand.

But failure could occur if fast-growing countries including China and India fall into the so-called Middle Income Trap of stagnating growth without reaching the level of advanced economies.

"Asia's rise is not pre-ordained," ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda said at the report's launch.

Reduced corruption key to Asia's rise: ADB report - Yahoo! News

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http://www.adb.org/documents/reports.../asia-2050.pdf

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Asia’s growth can propel three billion people to affluent levels by 2050 should policy makers successfully narrow inequalities and avoid falling into a so- called middle-income trap, the Asian Development Bank said.

Successful national and regional policies may boost Asia’s gross domestic product to $148 trillion by mid-century, making up 51 percent of global output in 2050, the Manila-based lender said in a report today. In another scenario, where countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam see growth slow and others fail to stoke their expansions, the region would account for 32 percent, or $61 trillion, of global GDP in 2050, it said.

Companies from Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s top maker of luxury vehicles, to LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the No. 1 purveyor of high-end consumer goods, are betting on the first scenario. China’s economic growth has spurred record demand for German cars, and India’s swelling middle class has prompted Paris-based LVMH to boost investment in the country.

“Levels of prosperity are only going to improve,” said Madan Sabnavis, an economist at Mumbai-based CARE Ratings, which grades creditworthiness of Indian companies. “I don’t think there are major risks. If you look at last three crises -- be it the regional crisis or global crisis -- it doesn’t last very long and the pace of recovery is faster than ever before.”
Episodes of Crisis

Asia was hit by a financial crisis in 1997-98 when nations from Thailand to South Korea depleted foreign-exchange reserves defending their currencies in the aftermath of a borrowing binge. The region also saw growth slow as the global economy slid into recession from the impact of the 2007-09 credit-bubble burst.

“As Asia leads the world out of recession, the global economy’s center of gravity is once again shifting toward the region,” said ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said. “The transformation under way has the potential to generate per capita income levels in Asia similar to those found in Europe today. By the middle of this century, Asia could account for half of global output, trade, and investment, while also enjoying widespread affluence.”

Asian equities have outpaced the world in the past decade, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing 61 percent in dollar terms, compared with a 22 percent advance for the MSCI World Index.

Asia must modernize its governance systems and remake its institutions to ensure transparency, accountability, and the enforceability of rules and regulations, the ADB said. The region’s long-term competitiveness will depend heavily on how it controls the intensity of its resource use, including water and food, it said.

“To meet these challenges, Asian leaders need to devise bold and innovative national policies while pursuing regional and global cooperation to successfully manage regional public goods, energy security, infrastructure connectivity, food supplies and water resources, and to maintain long-term peace and stability,” the ADB said.

ADB Says 3 Billion People in Asia May Reach Europe-Level Incomes by 2050 - Bloomberg

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Haruhiko Kuroda, Bangkok | Fri, 05/06/2011 9:57 PM | Opinion

An Asia producing over half of global GDP? Three billion Asians considered part of the “rich world” by 2050? A dream… or plausible reality?

It could happen if the region’s economy keeps growing at its current rate and if new Asian generations grab the baton and run
with it.

That baton, however, could be a very slippery one. There are several daunting multigenerational challenges and risks that must be overcome along the way.

It is true that developing Asia led the world out of its worst recession since the World War II. And it is true that the center of economic gravity appears to be shifting toward Asia.

So an Asian Century is certainly plausible. But Asia’s rise is by no means preordained.

Asia’s march toward prosperity and the freeing of the region from extreme poverty will require much more than simply high growth. Yawning inequalities must be narrowed.

And as home to over half of the world’s population, Asia must confront a massive wave of urbanization and grapple with changing demographic profiles.

Asia’s long-term competitiveness will depend heavily on the intensity of its resource use, including resources such as water and food, and an ability to manage the region’s carbon footprint. It is in Asia’s best interest to encourage and invest in innovation and clean technology to maintain its impressive growth momentum.

These challenges are anything but mutually exclusive. Asians are addressing these challenges by continued improvements in productivity, taking steps to tackle climate change and impact of global warming and focusing on inclusive growth.

But the list of challenges is long and if left unattended could deprive millions of Asians the opportunity to participate in the region’s progress.

These risks not only reinforce one another but could exacerbate existing tensions or create new conflicts. If not managed intelligently, they could threaten the hard-earned gains of the past 40 years, and undermine the huge potential gains possible over the next 40 years.

Asia must learn from history. Perhaps the most important lesson is to avoid the mistakes that countries or regions in the past made after an unprecedented era of rapid growth and industrialization.

Fast growing economies like the People’s Republic of China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam cannot afford falling into a middle income trap — moving from resource driven growth with cheap labor and capital to growth with high productivity and innovation.

Then there is the great challenge of governance and institution-building — an Achilles heel for most Asian economies. Institutional quality must rise as much as corruption must be quashed.

The ultimate challenge is effective governance — governance that provides quality health care and education; the infrastructure to move goods and people; the creation of efficient, livable cities; stable banking and financial systems; and reliable, fair legal structures that protect citizens rights.

In short, Asia must modernize its governance systems and retool its institutions to ensure transparency, accountability and enforceability.

Globalization, embracing open-regionalism and better regional cooperation has helped bring us success thus far. If we strengthen this process further with innovation and entrepreneurship, focusing on greater inclusion within and across economies; if we pursue sustainable development and improve governance as the key building blocks for the future; then yes, an Asian Century is both plausible and reachable.

It is time to look at ourselves in the mirror and learn from our mistakes as well as successes. Policies that worked when Asia was low-income and capital scarce are less likely to work today and unlikely to work in the future. Asia’s leaders must devise bold and innovative national policies while pursuing regional and global cooperation.

I believe regional cooperation and integration are critical to Asia’s march toward prosperity. Greater cooperation helps protect hard-won economic gains from external vulnerabilities. But it also cements the region’s economic power and strengthens its voice in an ever-evolving global financial architecture. Regional cooperation is the bridge linking individual economies with the rest of humanity.

But even more important, Asians must learn to trust each other. Without trust little can be achieved in regional cooperation.

Yes, Asians can learn from Europe’s history. But we must also learn from our own history of transforming conflict to cooperation — the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) are two cases in point.

Asia’s future global footprint carries with it new responsibilities and obligations. Global public goods — such as free trade, financial system stability, climate change, and security — are responsibilities we must embrace and show the world our willingness to be constructive in advancing the global commons. As an emerging global leader, Asia should act and be seen as a responsible global citizen.

Let me stress that The Asian Century is not Asia’s Century. It will be the century of Shared Global Prosperity where Asians will take their place among the ranks of the affluent — on par with those in Europe and North America.

Our challenges remain formidable. Future prosperity must be earned. And as advanced economies know well, it is never preordained.

The writer is the President of the Asian Development Bank.

Is the Asian century a dream or reality? | The Jakarta Post