dedicato ai pessimisti

[ramirez]

It is nearly three years since the world became aware of the coming financial tremors. Since then we have experienced a financial sector earthquake, a collapse in economic activity and an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response. The world economy has now recovered. But this crisis is far from over.
.
si so leggere: la crisi non è finita.
Ma già 'esistere' dopo financial sector earthquake, collapse in economic
è

[soros75]

Originalmente inviato da ramirez

It is nearly three years since the world became aware of the coming financial tremors. Since then we have experienced a financial sector earthquake, a collapse in economic activity and an unprecedented monetary and fiscal response. The world economy has now recovered. But this crisis is far from over.
.
si so leggere: la crisi non è finita.
Ma già 'esistere' dopo financial sector earthquake, collapse in economic
è

L'articolo non dice che "la crisi non é finita"....dice che la crisi e'LONTANA dall'essere finita.
Sul fatto che saremmo sopravvissuti alla crisi non ho avuto alcun dubbio, fin dal suo inizio.

[+ Vincente]

ooooooohhh, finalmente si vede quache realista in giro.

[ramirez]

Originalmente inviato da soros75

L'articolo non dice che "la crisi non é finita"....dice che la crisi e'LONTANA dall'essere finita.
Sul fatto che saremmo sopravvissuti alla crisi non ho avuto alcun dubbio, fin dal suo inizio.

se vuoi tornare al giorno dopo ilcrollo LB...incamminati.
Noi non ti seguiamo, però

[abdulmansour]

Originalmente inviato da ramirez

se vuoi tornare al giorno dopo ilcrollo LB...incamminati.
Noi non ti seguiamo, però

vai a vedere sul sole24ore il commento al tuo articolo, il succo è di tutt'altro tenore rispetto all'estrapolazione che hai fatto tu

[ramirez]

Originalmente inviato da abdulmansour

vai a vedere sul sole24ore il commento al tuo articolo, il succo è di tutt'altro tenore rispetto all'estrapolazione che hai fatto tu

io non ho estrapolato niente. Io ho solo fatto notare che siamo
ancora 'vivi' con quel che è successo.Io non ho usato l'articolo...per citare quel che è successo
potevo usare Wiki o qualsiasi giornale dle mondo.

[kimo]

il botto lo si sente all'atterraggio, non mentre si e' in volo...

[soros75]

Originalmente inviato da ramirez

io non ho estrapolato niente. Io ho solo fatto notare che siamo
ancora 'vivi' con quel che è successo.Io non ho usato l'articolo...per citare quel che è successo
potevo usare Wiki o qualsiasi giornale dle mondo.

Per restare in vita molti stati hanno dovuto sfondare i loro bilanci.
Paradossalmente quelli che hanno messo a repentaglio la nostra vita, sono quelli che adesso se la passano meglio....e non hanno pagato il conto. (le banche).

[ramirez]

Exports leading Italy out of recession
By Giulia Segreti in Rome

Published: July 14 2010 19:31 | Last updated: July 14 2010 19:31

Italian exports, which are leading the country out of recession, are projected to increase by 8 per cent this year following a collapse of over 22 per cent in 2009.

In their joint annual trade report, the Italian trade institute (Ice) and the National Statistics Bureau (Istat) said an 8 per cent growth rate would translate into a 1.5 per cent increase in GDP, considerably higher than forecast by economists. Italy’s GDP grew 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

Italian exports in the first four months of this year to EU countries rose 8.8 per cent, while sales elsewhere – mostly to China, India and parts of South America – gained 10.4 per cent.

Germany and France remain Italy’s main trade partners, accounting for over a quarter of exports and imports
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eh si son brutte notizie...il default è sempre più probabile.

[ramirez]

pessimisti..catastrofisti..insomma BEAR..
prego leggere
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Why Do Bears Seem Smarter Than Bulls?
già perchè ????
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I admit it: I’m jealous of Nouriel Roubini aka Dr. Doom. He’s been dead bearish this rally (see our joint CNBC appearance on July 5) and I vaguely recall him being bearish at the market lows in March, 2009. But, to be fair, in August 2006 he was calling for a housing crash as well. So I give him some credit.
But I’m jealous that despite being non-stop bearish over the past 1.5 years since the lows he still gets quoted everywhere, speaks at every conference, has supposedly 1000s of institutional clients paying for his wisdom, and has time for non-stop parties that he will never invite me to. Well, to be fair, he told me he will invite me to one if and when we go into a double-dip recession. But since that is not happening, the likelihood is that I will never go to a Roubini party. Why is he, and every other bear (Howard Ruff, Peter Schiff, etc), quoted everywhere all the time even though in some cases for decades they’ve been dead wrong (see this Howard Ruff quote from 1980 (read the italics)). In fact, perusing the message boards, optimists on the economy are often referred to as idiots and morons even though most metrics for the economy have gone straight up since mid-2009 and the stock market is about 80% higher than it was at the lows.

So why are the bears often seemed smarter or more in tune than the bulls?

1) Laziness. People want justification to not work harder (“if the world is going to hell then why should I bother”).

2) Evolution. People’s brains are hardwired to respond more to signs of danger. Our brains can get fixated, and then addicted, to the negative more than the positive.

3) Fitting in

. Because we all have a need to be accepted, liked, and listened to, people are likely to share bad news than good news (because they know that #2 above will get them to be listened to if its bad news).

4) Pattern recognition. Because of #2, people will notice bad events more than positive events as they happen and more easily link those events to the people who “warned them”.

Consequently, people begin to overgeneralize ("we just had a lost decade, so STOCKS ARE BAD").

Two steps to avoid the pessimism:

1) Remind yourself of the evolutionary tendency to latch onto the negative (and then to subsequently overgeneralize)

2) ask yourself what the agenda is of the people making the pessimistic claims.

3) Remind yourself that:

1.2 million jobs (net of all job eliminations) have been created in the past 12 months.
Companies are beginning to spend their record high levels of cash (see point #13 in the link).
Intel is buying McAfee in its first cash acquisition of a public company in over a decade, for instance.
Apple is going to sell 45 million ipads next year
Dendreon is curing prostate cancer
Household debt obligations for consumers are back to 1995 levels.
Google is making cars that drive by themselves
McDonalds raised its dividend for the 28th year in a row (to 3.25%, significantly above what you would get on government bonds) and theMcRib has less fat than I thought it did.
Marriott is blowing away earnings and the CEO is seeing no indication of any double dip.
Maybe the Bears get to go to all the parties, but long term the bulls should make money.