Hanno una paura pazzesca..

[ramirez]

Chi ? I tedeschi. Non non mi riferisco al match contro la Spagna...
ma a questo..
.
First, by realistic stress I mean the inclusion of extreme, not probable, worst-case scenarios. Given the recent discussions about Greece, this must include the worst estimates of a “haircut” – a deduction suffered by bondholders – of about 50 per cent of the face value of Greek bonds. The stress tests will, according to reports last week, include a uniform haircut on sovereign bonds of 3 per cent . This number is a joke. Some institutions will have a stronger exposure to Greece, Portugal, Ireland or Spain than others, and it is important that those banks are stressed on the assumption of significant haircuts of their sovereign risk portfolios
.
At a meeting deep inside the Bundesbank last week, the Landesbanken told Axel Weber, president of the German central bank, that they oppose full publication
.
It would not be good if Germany gave the impression that it is – once again – a reluctant participant in a European process, interested instead only its own narrow competitive advantage. There can be no Landesbanken exception
.
Since everybody knows that large parts of the banking sector are in deep trouble, a good pass result may bring the opposite of reassurance. It would signal to the outside world that the EU is treating its debt crisis, which is a banking crisis at heart, as a public relations exercise.

munchau@eurointelligence.com

[cellulo]

Originalmente inviato da ramirez

Chi ? I tedeschi. Non non mi riferisco al match contro la Spagna...
ma a questo..
.
First, by realistic stress I mean the inclusion of extreme, not probable, worst-case scenarios. Given the recent discussions about Greece, this must include the worst estimates of a “haircut” – a deduction suffered by bondholders – of about 50 per cent of the face value of Greek bonds. The stress tests will, according to reports last week, include a uniform haircut on sovereign bonds of 3 per cent . This number is a joke. Some institutions will have a stronger exposure to Greece, Portugal, Ireland or Spain than others, and it is important that those banks are stressed on the assumption of significant haircuts of their sovereign risk portfolios
.
At a meeting deep inside the Bundesbank last week, the Landesbanken told Axel Weber, president of the German central bank, that they oppose full publication
.
It would not be good if Germany gave the impression that it is – once again – a reluctant participant in a European process, interested instead only its own narrow competitive advantage. There can be no Landesbanken exception
.
Since everybody knows that large parts of the banking sector are in deep trouble, a good pass result may bring the opposite of reassurance. It would signal to the outside world that the EU is treating its debt crisis, which is a banking crisis at heart, as a public relations exercise.

munchau@eurointelligence.com

Mi sembra ridicolo sia uno stress test che immagina una perdita per i titoli di Stato del 3% sia quello che la immagina del 50%. Sappiamo già benissimo che nel primo caso le banche reggerebbero e nel secondo fallirebbero, senza bisogno che ce lo vengano a spiegare. Il rischio che gli stress test si rivelino dannosi c'é, se li condurranno su ipotesi troppo ottimistiche, d'altro canto condurli su ipotesi estreme non credo che serva a nulla. Anche perché negli USA dopo gli stress test si è proceduto a ricapitalizzazioni forzate, qui non mi risulta esistano procedure predefinite per chi dovesse risultare sottocapitalizzato.

Temo che da questa storia degli stress test nasceranno in ogni caso + problemi che altro, perché non è stata ben congegnata come negli USA.

[skymap]

L'europa ha un atteggiamento che definire omertoso è un eufemismo.


C'era qualche complottista sul web che si lamentava del fatto che gli usa avessero rimandato di alcuni giorni i risultati della loro indagine sulle banche, qui si insabbia direttamente tutto alla faccia dell'informazione.
Chiacchiere e distintivo, niente altro e i risultati si vedono.

[cellulo]

STRASBURGO (Reuters) - I paesi Ue che dovessero scoprire dagli stress test problemi per le proprie banche potranno ricorrere a un sistema già esistente di back-up dell'Unione europea.
Lo ha dichiarato il commissario agli Affari monetari Olli Rehn. Un sistema pensato "per utilizzare i meccanismi di stabilità finanziaria europea nel caso in cui un qualsiasi paese avesse bisogno di un programma...centrato in particolare sulla ristrutturazione del settore bancario e per un potenziale bisogno di ricapitalizzazione. Questa è la strategia", ha dichiarato Rehn al Parlamento europeo.
E' la prima volta in cui la Commissione europea riconosce la possibilità per un paese, alle prese con banche in difficoltà, di ricorrere al meccanismo di sostegno da 500 miliardi messo in piedi per garantire una rete di salvezza, nel caso di contagio dei problemi finanziari greci ad altri paesi comunitari.
Rehn ha anche dichiarato che i risultati degli stress test sulle banche della Ue dovranno essere completamente trasparenti per favorire la fiducia nell'Unione monetaria.

Questa dichiarazione di ieri mi sembra molto significativa. Per la prima volta si parla seriamente degli stress test ammettendo la possibilità che qualche banca possa non superarli e proponendo una soluzione credibile per l'eventuale ricapitalizzazione. Se seguono questa linea gli stress test non saranno la pagliacciata descritta da Munchau.

In parte il rialzo di ieri potrebbe anche essere dipeso da questa e da dichiarazioni analoghe (anche Trichet ha parlato degli s.t.), anche se non mi sembra che sia stato dato loro grande risalto.

[ramirez]

e chi aveva dubbi ? Basta pensare a quali banche
saranno più 'stressate'.
Io scommetto (chi accetta ???) quelle tedesche e quelle francesi..

[Colbert]

Io voto Spagna e Germania.

[F-online]

Certo le banche più stressate sono quelle con la pancia piena di robaccia ma tanto che gli importa basta cambiar regole in corso d' opera e ricapitalizzazioni coi soldi dei cittadini..

[debitofilo]

non solo omertà ma anche ipocrisia



BREAKINGVIEWS-Would the ECB pass a stress test?
Reuters - 07/07/2010 10:34:33
-- The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

By Pierre Briançon
PARIS, July 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, has been pushing hard for stress tests to be conducted on euro zone banks. But the ECB itself could probably do with a thorough examination of its own. It has loaded dodgy assets onto its balance sheet as part of its efforts to support the region's banks and governments. And it has bought bonds through its "non-conventional" monetary policy. Would the ECB pass a comprehensive stress test?
Start by looking at the ECB's balance sheet. What really matters is the consolidated balance sheet of the whole euro system, which includes the ECB and the network of 16 national central banks that are formally its shareholders.

At first glance the numbers are far from reassuring. The combined balance sheet had capital of 77.9 billion euros at the end of June, supporting assets of 2.154 trillion euros. The balance sheet has expanded by 50 percent in the past two years, while the capital base has largely remained static. The ECB's leverage is now almost 28 times -- a level at which most commercial banks got into trouble during the crisis.

Next, consider what losses the ECB might suffer. The most direct risk is to the 115 billion euros of securities it has acquired so far as part of its "non-conventional" policy. Of these, 60 billion consists of covered bonds -- secured instruments issued by banks, while the rest is in sovereign debt.

Those government bonds presumably aren't the safest in the euro zone. So if Greece and other governments default, the ECB would take a hit. The damage might be limited by the fact that the ECB bought most of its bonds at depressed prices in the secondary market. But assume a 50 percent haircut, and the resulting loss would be 27.5 billion euros.

The ECB has a further 300 billion euros of securities on its balance sheet about which it gives little information. It's hard to stress-test this portfolio, but assuming another 10 percent haircut, that would knock another 30 billion euros off the bank's capital base.

Of potential greater concern, however, are the securities that the ECB has accepted in recent years as collateral from banks seeking refinancing through repo operations, or at the discount window.

The central bank protects itself by restricting the types of collateral it will accept, and by applying a haircut to the value of any securities that are pledged. It also asks borrowers to provide additional funds if the market value of the collateral falls. However, the ECB's standards have been slipping: it has stated that it will keep accepting Greek government bonds despite their "junk" rating.

Stress tests are supposed to include extreme situations. If a bank goes broke, or if a euro zone member decides to restructure its debt, much of the ECB's collateral won't look that great.

So assume that the ECB takes a 10 percent hit on its 718 billion euros of "longer-term refinancing operations" -- lending with a duration of three, six or twelve months -- which has grown more than two-fold in the last two years. That alone would almost wipe out the central bank's capital.

However, central banks usually don't go broke. The main reason is that they can finance themselves by printing money, or by forcing banks to deposit reserves at below-market interest rates. But they can only do so much without creating inflation.

The euro zone's monetary base is about 1.2 trillion euros, or 13 percent of GDP. The ECB can safely increase this by about 3 percent a year -- equivalent to 1 percent of nominal GDP growth expected this year, plus the ECB's official inflation target of "below but close to" 2 percent. This means that the central bank can add more than 36 billion euros a year to the monetary base without triggering inflation fears.

If disaster struck on all fronts, however, the ECB would probably have to turn to its shareholders for capital, like any other bank. There's nothing about that possibility in the bank's founding treaty. But the probability is that euro zone treasuries would be asked to fork out, using the same capital key that was used when the ECB was created. This means Germany would put up 27 percent, France 20 percent, and so on.

But each member government would theoretically have the option of bowing out, leaving others to pick up the bill. In a scenario that includes sovereign defaults, this cannot be ruled out. It may be time for Trichet to start planning for that kind of unforeseen contingency.

[ScubaDuc]

Un' ipotesi di re-negoziazione del debito Greco al 50% del par non e' per niente far-fetched. A suo tempo era stato calcolato che se non tagliano il debito di almeno la meta' la Grecia non ne esce.

L'unica alternativa al dover rifinanziare le banche sarebbe quella di continuare a pagare il debito al posto dei Greci

[fever7]

Originalmente inviato da ScubaDuc

Un' ipotesi di re-negoziazione del debito Greco al 50% del par non e' per niente far-fetched. A suo tempo era stato calcolato che se non tagliano il debito di almeno la meta' la Grecia non ne esce.

L'unica alternativa al dover rifinanziare le banche sarebbe quella di continuare a pagare il debito al posto dei Greci

ma i greci pagheranno mai?? mmmm