La Merkel..e la Grecia

[ramirez]

L'altro 3d è esaurito ma il problema Grecia...no.
.
A WEEK since the Greek deal and the yield on 10-year debt has actually risen. The fundamental problem is that the Greeks cannot afford to pay 6% on their long-term debt. With debt larger than GDP, this means that the Greeks' average interest rate on their debt is equal to the proportion of GDP they pay to creditors. If that rate is higher than GDP growth, the sums get worse and worse. A recent estimate by this magazine saw the interest rate bill as a proportion of GDP rising from 5% last year to 8.4%.

What is likely real GDP growth? Well, in normal circumstances it might be 2%. For nominal growth to reach 6.5%, the current level of 10-year yields, inflation would have to be 4.5%. But that rate would just make Greek businesses less competitive, throwing people out of work, increasing the trade deficit and thus makng the Greeks more dependent on foreign creditors. So that's no solution. For the Greeks to lock in these high rates is locking in a loss, like selling $10 notes for $9.
What about borrowing short-term? Rates will be lower but the risk of a a crisis, as the debt has to be rolled over more often, gets higher.

So the answer might seem obvious: get the debt down via austerity programmes. But that is a problem too. The higher taxes and cuts in spending will affect GDP growth; far from a long-term growth rate of 2% a year, Greek GDP may be lower for an extended period.

In short, any deal, whether it involves the Greeks paying 6% to the markets, fellow EU nations or the IMF will not solve the nation's problems

[bart_simpson]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6302Y520100401

martedì la grecia ha cercato di piazzare 1 miliardo di obbligazioni a 12 anni
ha raccolto 390 milioni

[ramirez]

Greece will default, but not this year.
By Wolfgang Münchau

Published: April 4 2010 19:14 | Last updated: April 4 2010 19:14

I am willing to risk two predictions. The first is that Greece will not default this year. The second is that Greece will default. The Greek government has demonstrated that it can still borrow at a rate of about 6 per cent but if you do the maths on the public debt dynamics, as I did recently, it would be hard to arrive at any other scenario than an eventual default
....
To get out of this mess, one of five things will have to happen. The first, and most optimistic, solution would be a significant fall in the euro’s exchange rate, say to parity with the US dollar, coupled with a strong recovery in the eurozone. This might just do the trick to sustain Greek growth as it adjusts. The second is that Greece gets access to low interest rate loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The third would be a private sector debt restructuring to prevent a Fisher-style debt-deflation dynamic. The fourth is that Greece leaves the eurozone. The fifth is default. If you go through the options one by one, you realise that the first is improbable. The EU has in effect ruled out the second. The third would require an unlikely additional bail-out of the European banks. While option four would be most convenient for the Germans, the Greeks are not so stupid as to leave the eurozone. That leaves them with option five: to default inside the eurozone. It is the only option that is consistent with what we know.
...
There have only ever been two intellectually honest views about economic and monetary union. The first is that it could not work, as it would eventually produce a situation in which a country’s national interest conflicts with the interest of the monetary union at large. The second is that it could work, but only for as long as member states are ready to co-ordinate economic policy in the short run, and move towards a minimally sufficient fiscal union in the long run. The message from the EU, and from Germany in particular, is that the latter has now been ruled out

[superlep]

si sbrigassero......ancora 1 anno.....che palle....
dai che dopo tocca a noi.....

[skymap]

Cds a 390 e titoli di stato decennali a 410 pbs vs i titoli tedeschi.

“A lot of people are taking the attitude that the official support is promised, but not confirmed.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...E6gpPm00&pos=3

[mac2003]

Se l'Italia avesse gli spread sui titoli tedeschi a 410 pbs, sarebbe già in Default

[Ngc-53]

non mi pare una pensata geniale per i greci emettere bond in dollari, si prendono un bel rischio con la valuta, anche perchè in caso di loro difficoltà al momento della scadenza sarebbero loro stessi a mettere in crisi l'euro e quindi si complicherebbero ulteriormente la vita da soli.

[ramirez]

Originalmente inviato da Ngc-53

non mi pare una pensata geniale per i greci emettere bond in dollari, si prendono un bel rischio con la valuta, anche perchè in caso di loro difficoltà al momento della scadenza sarebbero loro stessi a mettere in crisi l'euro e quindi si complicherebbero ulteriormente la vita da soli.

magari perchè vogliono vendere sul mercato USA....
visto che in Eu magari nessuno li vuole.
Tra l'altro di immigrati greci là ce ne sono..magari li acquistano.

[maddof]

ma ke senso ha comprare bond greci??? me lo spiegate???

[0rigami]

è come chiedere che senso ha comprare bond in generale..... se compri i bond grec ottieni un tasso più alto del normale, che garantisce un ritorno più elevato. certo che se la grecia va in default perdi quasi tutto, però.... si tratta di calcolare i rischi-benfici