Il WSJ:Dopo la Grecia,la prossima è la Spagna?

[Birbun]

FEBRUARY 24, 2010
The Euro's Next Battleground: Spain

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That question haunts Spain and the entire euro zone as the Continent faces its biggest economic crisis since the common currency launched in 1999. Worries over Greece's ability to finance its huge debts have spread to other, weaker members of the euro zone, but these same fears are now nipping at Spain's heels. The problem is that, thanks largely to its membership in the euro, Spain lacks tried-and-true means to heal its economy.

Spain can't devalue its currency to make its exports more attractive and its sunny beach resorts cheaper because the euro's value is driven by Germany's bigger, competitive industrial economy. Madrid can't slash interest rates or print money to spur borrowing and spending, because those decisions are now made in Frankfurt by the European Central Bank.

Spain could still try to stimulate growth through tax cuts and spending increases. But it has already mounted enormous stimulus spending that swelled its budget deficit to 11.4% of GDP last year, and it would need to sell more bonds to raise fresh cash. Buyers of Spanish government bonds, spooked by the prospect of a Greek default, have already demanded higher interest rates from Madrid.

"Spain is the real test case for the euro," says Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "If Spain is in deep trouble, it will be difficult to hold the euro together...and my own view is that Spain is in deep trouble."
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In close to a decade of good times, Spaniards overtook the Italians and approached the French in terms of what their salaries could buy. Spanish energy, infrastructure, utility and banking companies spread world-wide.

But seeds of trouble were being planted. Spain's wages grew fast, making its economy less and less competitive. Low euro interest rates, set with low-inflation Germany in mind, began generating a housing bubble.

Spanish house prices more than doubled in real terms in the decade ending in 2008. At the peak, the country of 45 million people was building more houses than Germany, France and Italy—combined population 200 million—put together.
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Originalmente inviato da Birbun

FEBRUARY 24, 2010
The Euro's Next Battleground: Spain
[...]
At the peak, the country of 45 million people was building more houses than Germany, France and Italy—combined population 200 million—put together.
[...]