PIMCO: i bond UK sono su un letto di nitroglicerina

[Landing]

.

[Birbun]

GB membro ad honorem PIGS


Scherzi a parte,nonostante alcuni opinionisti britannici guardiano dall'alto al basso i Paesi del Club Med o PIGS,la GB non assomiglia per niente alla Germania nè come struttura industriale nè come disciplina fiscale.
Detto questo la ritengo comunque ben + solida di Grecia e Spagna.
Sicuramente è + corretta,eticamente parlando. ( almeno non falsifica i bilanci e la corruzione non è estesa )

[Illuminato10]

Caro Landing, purtroppo i nodi vengono sempre al pettine, ma il bello è guardando quel grafico l'UK sembra essere messa anche peggio della Spagna, regina dei "timori di crack" di questi giorni.
Chi si fiderebbe a comprande Bond inglesi di questi tempi?

[Birbun]

Originalmente inviato da Illuminato10

Caro Landing, purtroppo i nodi vengono sempre al pettine, ma il bello è guardando quel grafico l'UK sembra essere messa anche peggio della Spagna, regina dei "timori di crack" di questi giorni.
Chi si fiderebbe a comprande Bond inglesi di questi tempi?

Quello che fa paura della Spagna è il ritmo di deterioramento delle finanze pubbliche dovute ad un'economia disastrata e gravata da una disoccupazione al 20%.


P.S.
Anche nel IV trimestre 2009,l'economia spagnola è calata,unico Paese del G 20 a farlo.

[Colbert]

Originalmente inviato da Birbun

Quello che fa paura della Spagna è il ritmo di deterioramento delle finanze pubbliche dovute ad un'economia disastrata e gravata da una disoccupazione al 20%.


P.S.
Anche nel IV trimestre 2009,l'economia spagnola è calata,unico Paese del G 20 a farlo.

Non fa parte del G20.

[Birbun]

Originalmente inviato da Colbert

Non fa parte del G20.

Come no?
Certo che sì.

[Illuminato10]

Originalmente inviato da Landing

Ah no ?
La prima che mi viene in mente: quei trilioni di titoli tossici creati dalle loro banche, che hanno ricevuto un rating AAA, come li consideriamo ?


A proposito, qualcuno mi puo' spiegare come e' possibile che i maiali inglesi hanno ancora il AAA ? Riuscite a darmi una spiegazione che non sia "le agenzie di rating sono controllate dalla finanza americana e inglese" ?

Con un deficit più basso di quello inglese Spagna e Grecia sono state declassate, invece. Chissà perchè

[averytrader]

Un altro gestore obbligazionario di alto livello, Woolnough di M&G, ha criticato le valutazioni di Gross di Pimco sull' argomento

09:56:56 | 29 January 2010

M&G Investments fixed income fund manager Richard Woolnough has challenged Bill Gross' view that gilts should be avoided at all costs as they rest 'on a bed of nitroglycerine.'

In his monthly investment outlook, Pimco's Gross said high debt in the UK, along with the potential for currency devaluation, means gilts are a must avoid.

While Citywire AA-rated Woolnough accepts this may be the case in the short term, over the long term he paints a different picture.

Woolnough writes: According to many market commentators, the UK debt market is looking sick and is at a critical juncture. It is amongst the most unloved government markets in the developed world, which is understandable given the British inability to save in the boom times.

Now there is justifiable scepticism that markets will not be able to absorb the forthcoming huge government debt issuance once the Bank of England stops providing life support to the gilt market when it ends the quantitative easing program.

This consensus view is typified in Pimco's monthly investment outlook in which the UK bond market is singled out as a market that must be avoided. In their opinion, the gilt market is resting on a bed of nitroglycerin.

Pimco point to the UK's relatively high level of government debt, potential for sterling to fall and domestic accounting standards that have driven real yields on long dated inflation linked bonds to exceptionally low levels.

We agree these are issues that face the UK economy and have commented on these points previously. However, like any consensus, it makes sense to investigate if this is correct, priced in, and when it might come to an end.

Firstly, the IMF forecasts that for 2009 that the UK government will have a relatively large annual deficit of -11.5% of GDP, which is below that of the USA (-12.5%) but almost triple Germany’s government deficit (-4.2%). However the UK’s total outstanding gross debt stands at 68.7% of GDP, which compares favourably with the USA (84.8%) and Germany (78.7%).

The UK government has responded in aggressive Keynesian fashion to the downturn, if this medicine works then the action will be short term in its nature and will not leave the UK with a permanent debt burden, or the increase in debt could alternately be curtailed by the arrival of a more fiscally stringent government in this year’s election.

The UK has very little foreign debt and has been prudent by having the longest maturity debt profile in the G7. Outstanding debt and re-financing needs would therefore appear relatively manageable on an international basis. Not all outcomes will be bad.

Secondly, with regard to fears that our exchange rate could fall, the exchange rate has already collapsed by 22% on a trade weighted basis since 31 July 07. So a lot of the necessary adjustment has already taken place.

This adjustment process is very beneficial for an open economy such as the UK, especially when many of our trading partners are locked into using the relatively strong Euro currency. By having a flexible currency and control over domestic interest rates, the UK is arguably in as good a position as anyone to grow our way out of our debt problem.

Finally, accounting standards have indeed distorted gilt yields as we have previously mentioned here. However, this accounting standard is designed to improve company accounts in terms of disclosing assets and liabilities of company pension schemes and this is surely a good accounting standard that should be adopted by many other regulators.

The fact that better pension regulation in the UK results in lower long term rates makes long dated bonds - especially UK linkers - look dear internationally. But this dampening influence on gilt yields is a distortion that is likely to persist unless the regulation and the accounting oversight of this significant employee benefit are changed.

The view that the UK gilt market is one to avoid has some punch in the short term, but the consensus is exaggerating the risks the UK gilt market faces. Even if one agrees with the consensus, it is important to see if this view is priced into markets and when this will eventually come to an end.

I agree with the direction of the consensus, absorbing that much new supply will be negative for gilts in the short term. However in the longer term the UK has the chance to adjust to the crisis through fiscal stimulus, financial reform and a falling exchange rate that might well provide the medicine required. The consensus that a bed of nitroglycerin is a dangerous place to rest like any consensus view should be challenged.

Don't forget, a bed of nitroglycerin could be exactly what the sick UK economy needs as it is one of the oldest and most useful drugs for restoring patients with heart disease back to good health.

* Woolnough runs a range of fixed income portfolios at M&G including the £1.3 billion Optimal Income fund, which can invest across the fixed income spectrum.

In the three years to the end of December the fund delivered a return of 31.6% versus a 21.8% gain in the BofA Merrill Lynch Eur Currency HY Const Hdg GBP index.
...

http://www.citywire.co.uk/selector/-...=379528&Page=1

[bobby50]

Ma l'acronimo di PIGS....sta come Portogallo, Italia, Grecia e Spagna?

[Gaudente]

Originalmente inviato da Birbun

Come no?
Certo che sì.

per sciogliere l'arcano (in un certo senso avete entrambi ragione) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economies
Spain (9), Netherlands (16), Poland (18), Belgium (20), Sweden (22), Austria (24), Greece (27) and Denmark (29) are included only as part of the EU, and not independently