“We believe they will file for bankruptcy within the week": chi sarà mai?

[Fromstudytowork]

“We believe they will file for bankruptcy within the week, provided nothing unexpected occurs”.

Così si leggeva venerdì in un bell'articolo di Bloomberg, interamente rintracciabile qui, dove appunto l'analista Steer diceva quello che poi da poche ore si è ufficilizzato: va in bancarotta CIT GROUP.
Dalla lettura di quell'articolo si poteva vedere che i segnali erano MOLTO chiari...

CIT Group Inc. bond and credit- default swap prices show that investors are betting the 101- year-old commercial lender will file for bankruptcy after the deadline for a debt exchange expired overnight.
Since CIT Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek started a $30 billion debt swap Oct. 1, the company’s notes due Nov. 3 dropped 12 cents to 68 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Holders of the $500 million in notes were offered 90 cents on the dollar in new debt and equity in an out- of-court exchange that expired at 11:59 p.m. yesterday in New York. They would get 70 cents on the dollar in bonds and new stock in a pre-packaged bankruptcy.

Per capire tutto ora, segnalo Bloomberg che qualche ora fa esce con un puntuale articolo, che potete leggere con calma qui, in cui tra l'altro si legge che:

CIT Group Inc., the 101-year-old commercial lender seeking to avoid collapse, may file for a prepackaged bankruptcy as soon as today after striking deals with billionaire Carl Icahn and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Vediamo i numeri in gioco in merito a questa bancarotta:

The accords were disclosed the day after a deadline passed for CIT to solicit votes in support of either a $30 billion out- of-court debt exchange or a prepackaged bankruptcy. CIT is seeking to reduce debt by at least $5.7 billion after being locked out of credit markets it relies on for funding and posting nine quarters of losses totaling more than $5 billion.
Under the prepackaged plan, CIT bondholders will get 70 cents on the dollar in the form of new notes and equity in the reorganized company. If CIT is forced into a “free-fall” bankruptcy, unsecured claims may fetch as little as 6 cents on the dollar, according to Jeffrey Peek, the company’s chief executive officer.

E alla fine tra l'altro chi esce vincitore da tutto ciò? Il miliardario Icahn e la sempre presente (!!) Goldman. Infatti:

“Icahn had two goals in mind: Influence over the board and participation in the expansion loan facility,” [...] “He’s won on both counts.”

In exchange, Goldman Sachs received $285 million in termination fees, CIT said Oct. 30 in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Under the terms of the two companies’ original agreement, Goldman Sachs would have been due a $1 billion termination payment to close the credit line after a CIT bankruptcy.

Data l'ora, domani ne riparliamo meglio... vedendo anche le news che usciranno a corredo al piano di bancarotta previsto...

[Fromstudytowork]

Un pò di storia, dal Financial Post:

CIT Group Inc, a lender to a million small and mid-sized U.S. businesses, filed for bankruptcy on Sunday. The following is a collection of key dates of the 101-year old business lender.

1908 - 37 year-old Henry Ittleson founds CIT in St. Louis. Within three months, the business lender had 22 clients, including chemical company Monsanto. Seven years later the company moves to New York.

1924 - CIT sells stock to the public and becomes the first company of its kind to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

1928 - CIT enters into factoring.

1929 - The company reports record earnings just a few months after the 1929 stock market crash, and remained relatively sound during the 1930s. It acquired companies to boost its business, including Ford Motor's financing wing, Universal Credit Corporation. Over time, the company also starts buying manufacturing businesses.

1969 - CIT abandons its auto financing business, and turns to personal and home equity loans and equipment leasing. It acquired a series of banks in the 1960s and 70s, but sold its banking operations in 1979.

1980 - RCA Corp acquires CIT and sells its four manufacturing businesses.

1982 - CIT moves to Livingston, New Jersey, a suburb of New York.

1984 - RCA sells CIT to Manufacturers Hanover Trust Corporation. The two companies combined became the largest factoring unit in the world.

1986 - CIT transfers its consumer loan portfolio to Manufacturers Hanover to focus exclusively on business clients.

1992 - CIT reenters into the personal consumer market.

1997 - CIT holds an IPO and is relisted on the NYSE.

2001 - Tyco International agrees to buy CIT for about $10 billion, but is forced to spin it off to shareholders a year later as Tyco struggles with a massive debt burden from such acquisitions.

2003 - Jeffrey Peek is appointed chief operating officer, with the expectation of becoming chief executive. Peek became CEO in 2004. The company begins an aggressive expansion into subprime and student loans.

2006 - CIT moves back to New York into a new, 28-story, glass-encased tower at 505 Fifth Avenue.

2009 - CIT loses its investment-grade debt ratings, and warns about the potential for bankruptcy as it struggles to get financing. Peek announces plans to retire only one month after the company renewed his contract for one year.


Ora rimangono solo un pò di freddi-freddissimi numeri...
DEBITI: 65miliardi , ASSET: 71miliardi , AIUTI DI STATO RICEVUTI: 7miliardi

Ed ecco i piani precedenti alla presentazione dell'istanza di bancarotta dei due 'benefattori' Icahn - da CNBC qui - e Goldman Sachs - sempre da CNBC qui.

[Elliot_surfer]

*Future: Dow Jones al Cbot a 9715 punti (+0,53%)

Questo dato stamattina, alla luce di un altro fallimento, non me lo riesco però a spiegare.

[soros75]

Lo avevamo detto anche sul FOL, l'8 Ottobre 2009:
Segnatevi questa data: 29 Ottobre 2009

[Fromstudytowork]

Originalmente inviato da Elliot_surfer

*Future: Dow Jones al Cbot a 9715 punti (+0,53%)

Questo dato stamattina, alla luce di un altro fallimento, non me lo riesco però a spiegare.

scusami ma io me lo spiego perchè oramai la borsa scontava da molti giorni tale fallimento; infatti sempre da Bloomberg (sottolineature mie):

The company’s stock dropped 1 cent, or 1.1 percent, to 94 cents as of 4:31 a.m. in pre-market New York trading, after falling 10 percent yesterday. CIT, which traded at more than $61 each in February 2007, has lost 79 percent this year.

The cost to protect CIT debt against default for five years has risen 5.4 percentage points to 39.4 percent upfront since Sept. 30, according to CMA DataVision. That means it would cost $3.94 million initially and $500,000 annually to protect $10 million of CIT bonds from default for five years.

The cost of the credit-default swaps implies that traders have priced in an 86.5 percent chance that the company will default within five years, a standard pricing model used by Bloomberg shows. The model assumes investors could recover 40 cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding.

“The credit-default-swap market is telling you default is imminent,” Kevin Starke, an analyst at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a telephone interview. “The bond prices are indicating the pre-pack is likely.”

E poi, oggi usciranno un paio di indicatori importanti tra cui il solito sempre positivo ISM manifatturiero USA... quindi credo che alla fine Wall Street non ne risentirà più di tanto...

[soros75]

Originalmente inviato da Fromstudytowork

scusami ma io me lo spiego perchè oramai la borsa scontava da molti giorni tale fallimento;

Concordo.
Il mercato aveva digerito la notizia da tempo.

[Fromstudytowork]

anche il Sole online scrive il suo articoletto, qui, anche se stanotte non ne dava notizia sul sito... Infatti, poi questo articolo lo hanno messo online ma per la fretta hanno messo la data del 2 OTTOBRE 2009!
Ma come si fa?

[Fromstudytowork]

Originalmente inviato da Fromstudytowork

scusami ma io me lo spiego perchè oramai la borsa scontava da molti giorni tale fallimento; infatti sempre da Bloomberg (sottolineature mie):

[...]

E poi, oggi usciranno un paio di indicatori importanti tra cui il solito sempre positivo ISM manifatturiero USA... quindi credo che alla fine Wall Street non ne risentirà più di tanto...

e infatti, Wall Street apre in positivo e ovunque sui siti dei maggiori quotidiani è possibile leggere (esempio Repubblica qui venti minuti fa):

USA, sale oltre le attese l'indice ISM di ottobre.
E' salito a ottobre l'indice ISM manifatturiero americano. Il dato si attesta infatti a 55,7 punti contro i 52,6 di settembre. Il dato è stato comunicato dall'ISM, Insitute for Supply Management. L'indice, che viene usato per valutare lo stato di salute del settore manifatturiero statunitense, risulta superiore alle attese degli analisti che indicavano un aumento a 53 punti.