Rumors Bank Stress Test

[Laetitia]

http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.c...st-reults.html

The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this "main stream media" report.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.

[soros75]

Cosí...tanto per farsi un'idea di quali sono i parametri di questo stress test:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/26/bu...l?ref=business

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration ordered the nation’s 19 biggest banks on Wednesday to undergo stress tests to check whether they could hold up if the economy deteriorated further.

But analysts say the administration’s worst projections, which it describes as unlikely, are not much more dire than what many private forecasters already expect.


According to the new Treasury Department guidelines, the banks would have to assume that the economy contracts by 3.3 percent this year and remains almost flat in 2010. They would also have to assume that housing prices fall another 22 percent this year and that unemployment would shoot to 8.9 percent this year and hit 10.3 percent in 2010.

“I don’t think they are harsh enough,” said David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights, who said the dire projection was itself too optimistic about the growth that would be generated from President Obama’s stimulus program. “That would be a pleasant outcome, but you have to plan for the worst.”

The average outlook of private-sector forecasters envisions the economy shrinking by 2 percent this year and unemployment peaking just below 9 percent in 2010.

The average forecast for housing prices is a decline of 14 percent this year and an additional 4 percent next year.

Recent forecasts by the Federal Reserve and most private forecasters have undershot the severity of the downturn.

Big banks — those with more than $100 billion in assets — will have to carry out supervised analyses by the end of April of how much their capital would be depleted under the Treasury Department assumptions. If federal banking regulators conclude that a bank would not have enough capital under those circumstances, the bank would have to raise the extra money within six months or get it from the government in exchange for ceding a potentially big ownership stake.

The Treasury Department also laid out the terms on which it would offer banks additional capital, and the formula could make the government a major shareholder in banks like Citigroup with only a modest additional infusion of capital.

The Treasury said that it would provide new capital in exchange for shares of preferred stock that could be converted to shares of common stock at a price slightly below the level at which the shares traded on Feb. 9. For many of the big banks, that price would be slightly higher than the quoted prices today, but still at rock-bottom levels compared with just one year ago.

In effect, analysts said, the administration’s offer of additional capital could set a floor on share prices of the major banks, which will now be able to raise more money at lower cost if the market value of their shares dropped below the levels on Feb. 9.

Administration officials, insisting that they want to avoid full-fledged bank nationalizations, left themselves wide discretion on how to interpret the results of the stress tests.

In a telephone conference call with reporters, officials from the Fed and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said there would be no simple measure for “passing” or “failing” a test, and provided only vague descriptions of how they would interpret the results.

“It sure sounds to me like they are designing this to make it sound like the banking system is in great shape,” said Paul J. Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings Ramsey, a brokerage firm that specializes in bank stocks.

Administration officials said their intention was simply to make sure that the nation’s big banks would remain adequately capitalized even if the economic recession is substantially worse than expected.

They said their goal was to increase confidence of investors and depositors in the big banks, providing tangible evidence that the institutions would have enough money, whether they had to raise it from private investors or get it from taxpayers.

Administration officials said there was no cap on how much money a single institution could obtain, and they declined to estimate how much money the government would end up injecting before the crisis was over. Banks and other “qualified financial institutions,” which now includes investment banks and insurance companies that are part of bank holding companies, can start applying for more money immediately.

The Treasury Department has already used or allocated the first $350 billion of the $700 billion financial rescue program that Congress approved last fall.

Many analysts say the administration will have to ask Congress to authorize additional spending, though administration officials have declined to make any predictions thus far.

Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics, said Citigroup and other major banks would almost certainly become insolvent once they absorb the full brunt of losses from the economic downturn.

“The stress test is about politics,” Mr. Whalen said. “The O.C.C. and the Fed already know the answer. The answer is that we’re going to have to come to a decision: are we going to put in more equity or are we going to resolve the banks through bankruptcy?”

Even as Treasury officials laid the ground rules for getting banks through the current crisis, President Obama met with lawmakers in Congress to begin discussions about a broader overhaul of how the financial regulatory system oversees risk in the future.

Emerging from the meeting, Mr. Obama said the first principle of a new system should be that financial institutions “that pose serious risks to the markets should be subject to serious oversight by the government.”

He also said that the regulatory system should be strengthened to withstand major stresses and that the government should take steps to rebuild trust in markets by promoting transparency.

[ramirez]

io avevo letto su cnbc che quasi tutte passavano il test.
Infatti Roubini dice che lo scenario potrebbe essere peggiore
di quello inserito nel test..come a dire..beh con questo scenario
ce la fanno ma con uno scenario peggiore...
E per concludere..se fosse vero..com'è che qualche banca
vuol rendere i fondi TARP in anticipo ?

[picaro]

ma se tremonti dice che il peggio è passato ....

[Albmar]

Meno male che il 13 aprile si diceva che non dovevano esserci problemi.

Dal WSJ del 13-04

L’ottimismo degli operatori è stato generato in primo luogo da un articolo del New York Times secondo cui le 19 banche Usa per le quali sono in corso stress test per verificarne l’adeguatezza patrimoniale da parte di un team di circa 200 persone, potrebbe essere superato. Tale indiscrezione è stata confermata anche da Hoenig, presidente della Fed del Kansas City che ha dichiarato quanto segue: " solo 19 banche Usa hanno più di 100Mld$ di asset" e di queste ultime "è probabile che poche avranno bisogno di un ulteriore intervento governativo". A supportare l’ottimismo è stata anche la trimestrale di Wells Fargo, seconda banca Usa dopo l’acquisizione di Wachovia, che ha evidenziato utili superiori alle attese, grazie principalmente al recupero dell’attività di rifinanziamento dei mutui. Infine il Wsj riporta l’ipotesi secondo cui Goldman Sachs starebbe considerando una corposa emissione di azioni per diversi miliardi di Dollari, finalizzata al rimborso dei 10Mld$ di aiuti governativi finora ricevuti. In tale contesto si è assistito anche al recupero di GM (+5,7%), dopo l’indiscrezione riportata dalla CNBC secondo cui il produttore di auto Usa sarebbe vicino alla conclusione di un accordo con i sindacati. Il clima di maggior ottimismo sta impattando anche sulle aspettative degli economisti che, in base al sondaggio condotto dal Wsj, si attendono la fine della recessione alla fine del prossimo settembre. Gli effetti benefici sull’occupazione non si manifesterebbero però prima della seconda metà del 2010.

[picaro]

Originalmente inviato da ramirez

io avevo letto su cnbc che quasi tutte passavano il test.
Infatti Roubini dice che lo scenario potrebbe essere peggiore
di quello inserito nel test..come a dire..beh con questo scenario
ce la fanno ma con uno scenario peggiore...
E per concludere..se fosse vero..com'è che qualche banca
vuol rendere i fondi TARP in anticipo ?

Qui è in gioco tutto il "BANCO", la vera "VERITA", non la sapremo mai, mia opinione ? cercheranno di tirare avanti fino a quando sarà possibile, poi alla fine scatterà la parola fine ..... e a quel punto ognuno per se e DIO per tutti ...
Io faccio qs piccola considerazione ... è ammissibile che chi ci ha portato in qs situazione vada alla casa bianca a discutere di come uscirne fuori ? E migliaia di poveri impiegati licenziati in massa per decisioni al di fuori delle loro responsabilità ? E' tutta una farsa ... Se in qs storie ci fosse un minimo di serietà qs signori dovrebbero stare già da mesi in carcere a pane e acqua ... invece sono beatamente al comando .. Per quanto ?

Se poi consideriamo che dei premi nobel affermano che il peggio deve ancora arrivare, quando sarebbe più "comodo" per loro aggregarsi al partito di "maggioranza" .... tutto ciò dovrebbe farci capire molte cose ...

[Albmar]

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

[skymap]

Vedo che nessuno si chiede chi sia questo turner radio che ha tali entrature nella fed e nel governo usa da sapere oggi i risultati del test, che forse non è neppure stato completato perchè era previsto per la fine di aprile.

Basta scrivere qualcosa in un blog...

[picaro]

Originalmente inviato da skymap

Vedo che nessuno si chiede chi sia questo turner radio che ha tali entrature nella fed e nel governo usa da sapere oggi i risultati del test, che forse non è neppure stato completato perchè era previsto per la fine di aprile.

Basta scrivere qualcosa in un blog...

Secondo te solo bufala ?

da WSI ..
Bank of America ha fatto meglio de consensus, riportando un utile pari a $4.2 miliardi nel primo trimestre (dovuto principalmente alla vendita di titoli ad una banca cinese). Le perdite sono state bilanciate dai maggiori ricavi derivanti dall’acquisizione di Merrill Lynch lo scorso anno, troppo poco per permettere al titolo di estendere il rialzo degli ultimi giorni.

A cedere terreno e' anche Citigroup, che risente dei commenti negativi di Goldman Sachs sulle nuove perdite fiscali.

... GS che si permette di dare giudizi ....

[skymap]

Non so se sia una bufala, mi chiedo solo quale sia la fonte di questo blog e se abbia davvero tali notizie. Ho smesso da un pezzo di credere pedissequamente a tutto quello che circola sul web.