previsioni...

[ramirez]

Lo scopo di questo 3d è assai semplice.
Ogni giorni si leggono ipotesi catastrofiche ed altre...meno catastrofiche
propongo di fare un mega copia-incolla degli articoli, analisi ecc. ecc
SENZA COMMENTO....ognuno vi saprà leggere quel che desidera, spera....
in ogni caso sarà divertente (si spera...) rileggerle in futuro.
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inizio ..con uno positivo...secondo me dice cose...plausibili e sensate
ovvio tutto da verificare
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2009 Could Be Better Than You Think
By ALAN MURRAY


No, 2008 wasn't just a bad year. It was an awful year. A Johnstown Flood kind of year. The kind that wipes out proud, century-old institutions, decimates entire industries, and leaves everyone decidedly poorer and the world profoundly shaken in its wake.

Enough of that. On to 2009.

I have no crystal ball. But a sense of history, some basic economics, common sense and just a dash of congenital optimism leave me convinced that this one won't be all bad.
Oh, sure, there will be layoffs like we haven't seen since the Great Depression. And you can expect to see a proliferation of empty storefronts and a heap of broken businesses.
But why focus on the negative? Here are five good reasons why 2009 could, if you make the most of it, be good for your financial health.

1 This will be a good year to invest in stocks.

No one can tell you exactly when or where the market will bottom. But most business-cycle experts agree that the bottom will be found sometime this year, and that it probably won't be too far below where the market is today.

So a smart strategy will be to put some money in the market today, and keep doing it over the course of the year. If you're still shaken over massive losses from last year, this may be hard advice to swallow. But the biggest mistake you can make as an investor is to ride the market down, lose faith, pull out and miss the upturn.

Even in the Great Depression, the market bottomed out in 1932, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 41, down from a peak of 381 in 1929. By 1937, it had climbed back to a respectable 194. That didn't make investors whole. But for those who stayed in, it certainly soothed the wounds.

2 It will be a good year to invest in real estate.

This one's a bit trickier, since real-estate prices are "sticky" on the downside. Homeowners don't like to admit that the value of their pride and joy has fallen by 30%. So they'll put their house on the market at an inflated price and hope some fool will bite.

I was at a Vermont ski resort last month and noticed this oddity: Brand-new condominiums were selling at a price considerably below those of second-hand condos of roughly equal size and location. The reason? I assume it's because the resort owners have a better sense of the market's real value than the average person, still desperate to recoup a bad investment.

But here's the thing: Fixed-rate mortgages are already at historic lows, and the government is going to use every tool in its bag to get them lower over the course of the year. So if you find a piece of property you want, if the seller is willing to recognize how far the market has truly fallen, and if you have good credit -- three big ifs -- you can benefit from a once-in-a-lifetime double bonus of low prices and low interest rates.

This strategy requires some patience. Just as real-estate prices don't fall as precipitously as the stock market, they don't rise as rapidly, either. You may have to wait a decade to reap the full benefits.

3 Americans will learn to live within their means.

Around our house, the crisis is already having a salutary effect. Our teenagers suddenly seem to understand that unlimited dinners out with friends aren't a birthright, and that blue jeans don't have to carry triple-digit price tags.

Multiply that by 300 million, and you have a nation that has rediscovered that you can't spend what you don't earn. Houses are no longer ATMs, and credit cards no longer come with each day's mail.

That sudden realization, of course, is what's causing the economy to swoon. But this reckoning was inevitable, so it's best to get on with it. Let's hope these lessons last for decades.

4 President Obama will have a historic opportunity to reshape public policy.

Speaking at the Wall Street Journal's CEO conference in November, Mr. Obama's chief-of-staff-designate, Rahm Emanuel, said the words that have become his team's rallying cry for 2009: "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. This crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not do before."

The Obama team is busily preparing a stimulus package that, when all is said and done, will total between $750 billion and $1 trillion -- far larger than any fiscal stimulus in the history of the world. And with the economy still sliding downward, it's a good bet few politicians will want to stand in the way.

That will give the new president an opportunity to do things his predecessors could only dream about. Roads will be rebuilt, schools will be refurbished, medical records will be computerized, and windmills will be constructed, all across the land.

Will some of that money be wasted? Of course. But the sums involved are so huge that there's a good chance someone, somewhere, will benefit.

5 Your (federal) taxes won't rise.

Never mind those campaign calls for higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans. Truth is, no politician is going to push for general tax increases in the midst of a severe recession.

You may wonder: How is the government going to pay for that trillion-dollar stimulus package? Or the multitrillion-dollar bailout of financial institutions, auto companies and anyone else sideswiped by the current crisis? Or the continued wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Or the (still) rapidly rising cost of the baby boomers' retirement?

Well, that's the sweet secret of the current crisis. While the American people are learning to live within their means, the new American government has discovered an unlimited (for now) line of credit. The United States may have led the world into this crisis, but the world now seems more than willing to lend us unlimited amounts of money to lead the way out.

This, too, is unsustainable. A reckoning will come. But that's a problem for 2010 and beyond.

In the meantime, enjoy the new year!

[ramirez]

qui poi ce ne sono molte (anche contradditorie)..concentrate
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Pros Warn: Stocks Haven't Hit Bottom
Despite some analyst calls that markets bottomed in November last year, investors should not get too euphoric, as stocks have still a way to go lower, experts tell CNBC.

We Aren't At the Lows Yet

According to the charts, November was not the low for the U.S. markets, says Daryl Guppy, CEO of Guppytraders.com. And Michael Yoshikami, founder, president & chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors agrees.

Tech, Pharma, Biotech Next to Fall

"This is a fractured credit market. The biggest threat in fractured credit markets is technology gets crushed because it's a big cash burner on RND, so is pharma, so is biotech. All of these things will become a big problem," Richard Morrish, head of research at MIG Investments. "Equity markets have still got a long way to go on the downside. We haven't yet got to the real bottom end."

A Short-Term Rally for the Markets

Over the next couple of months you will be able to make money from the stock market because we have a gradual bear-market rally taking place, Philippe Gijsels, senior equity strategist at Fortis Global Markets said Friday. He warns that the rest of the year will still be difficult.

The U.S. is the best defensive stock market for the current bear market, according to Gijsels.

"Buy defensive big cap names in the U.S. for 2009," he said.

Gijsels thinks the pharmaceutical sector will still be a good investment choice for 2009, as well as the consumer discretionary sector.

He also thinks there is investment potential in the autos, media and retail sectors as resolution will hopefully come soon and the stocks have been beaten down very hard.

Stocks to Rise 35% by Year-End

2008's downtrend has hopefully been broken, so stocks in 2009 will be more positive, Sani Hamid from Financial Alliance said Friday.

He sees us possibly hitting new lows in '09 but they won't be far from the lows met in November. For 2009, Hamid suggests buying into Singaporean and Chinese stocks.

Roger Nightingale from Pointon York sees the stock market 25-35% higher by the end of the year, and right now as an excellent time for long-term investors to be investing.

Don't Get Euphoric Too Soon

Don't get euphoric too soon, advises Michael Yoshikami, founder, president & chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors. He also reveals his investment strategy for 2009.

Continue to Exercise Caution

One has to be very cautious when buying into a recovery as there are still shoes to drop in the U.S. economy, says Michael Yoshikami, founder, president & chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors.

A Painful Year Ahead for Asia

The 2009 growth outlook for most of Asia Pacific will likely be quite poor, says James McCormack, MD & head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings.

HK Market May See a Short-Term Rally

Even though Steve Tse, research manager at BEA Union Investment Management expects the Hong Kong market to close lower today, he tells CNBC that he sees a short-term rally in January.

Expect a US Recovery by H2 of 2009

The U.S. economy may begin to show signs of recovery in the second-half of 2009, believes Ilian Mihov, professor of economics at INSEAD. He outlines the signs that will point to a turn in the economy.

"Stable" Outlook for China

James McCormack, MD & head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings has maintained a "stable" outlook for China, the Philippines and Indonesia.

[averytrader]

04 January 2009

Cazenove multi-manager, Robin McDonald, is predicting a bleak outlook for 2009 after a rapid deterioration of economic conditions in Q4 of 2008.

McDonald, who now co-heads Cazenove’s multi-manager team with Marcus Brookes after moving from Gartmore earlier in the year, is bracing himself for more bad news in the first quarter of 2009.

He said: ‘I can think of only two things that are definitely going up in 2009, bankruptcies and unemployment!'

With economic data worsening by the day, McDonald believes there is little chance for a cyclical upturn any time soon. He is, however, encouraged by the exceptional and historically unparalleled stimulus packages by the world’s largest economies.

McDonald is tempted by the high yielding corporate debt market but is keen to steer clear of commodities and government bonds.

He said: ‘Whereas selectively buying corporate bonds at these levels will likely prove highly rewarding over time, buying into a government bond bubble will not.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/...aspx?ID=324087

‘On the economy, we remain downbeat’, he said. ‘This is already the third longest recession since The Great Depression, and it is likely to be the longest and the deepest since then.

‘Any optimism has to come from the unprecedented policy action undertaken by governments around the world. The lack of historical comparison for such action has caused plenty of debate internally as to the implications.’

In regard to the financial markets in 2009, McDonald says the indiscriminate selling in 2008 means the markets have rightly priced-in a strong dose of gloom in the short term. He is now monitoring inflationary and growth signals for the right moment to re-invest but says he will remain defensive for the time being.

‘Financial markets [have] switched from pricing an inflationary environment with robust growth, to a deflationary environment with next to no growth…Our preference for defensives is likely to remain until the growth and/or inflation picture turns.’

http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/...aspx?ID=324087

[SoloDallas]

Mi è piaciuto moltissimo questo. Se non altro, perché è chiarissimo nei concetti e nella visione.

E' superiore ai 24k caratteri, quindi posto solo il link. Sintetizzarlo sarebbe puerile.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/gala-...fetime-3-28912

Evidentemente, è per gli USA. L'Europa si trova e si troverà in posizioni differenti, forse migliori o forse peggiori. Ma senz'altro, fortemente influenzate dalla situazione USA.

Pertanto, più se ne sa e se ne studia, meglio è.

[ramirez]

beh visto che si parla (teme) di deflazione...giusto leggere
cosa si può fare per combatterla...
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Can the Fed fight deflation? How?
Posted Nov 20th 2008 12:27PM by Peter Cohan
Filed under: Economic data, Federal Reserve, Recession, Financial Crisis

Based on October wholesale and consumer price reports, July 2008 marked a shift from inflation into full-blown deflation. This has much to do with the declining price of oil, which in turn is related to the collapse of speculative buying of oil while shorting the dollar; the decline in demand resulting from a global downturn; and the failure of producers to cut supply fast enough.

However, as I posted, there's a vicious cycle underway which leads to:

Excess inventory,Price cuts, Capacity and job reductions, Less spending power, Lower demand -- followed by a return to step 1. And with jobless claims at 542,000 and the price of oil down below $50, it's pretty clear that this cycle is well underway. What can the Federal Reserve do to turn this vicious cycle into a virtuous one? It is likely to cut the Fed Funds rate to zero or very close to it -- 0.25% -- in January. But in a 2002 speech, Bernanke said that there are other ways the Fed could try to boost overall demand, which would reverse the deflationary cycle.




The Fed could start to lower interest rates on longer-term maturity Treasury bonds -- for example those maturing in two years. Bernanke thought this could be done by announcing yield ceilings on that debt which it could enforce by making "unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields." Bernanke also alluded to fiscal policy -- outside the Fed's control -- such as tax cuts and/or government spending as other ways to boost demand.

Will any of these tactics actually work to increase demand? The efforts to lower interest rates won't, but the government spending and tax cuts might. How so? Lower interest rates will only work if banks are willing to lend to businesses and consumers. But banks are too worried about getting paid back to make the loans. And they should be because many consumers and businesses are likely to have less income to pay back those loans.

However, if the government simply gave enough money to businesses and consumers, they would probably first use it to pay off their debts then put more aside in savings for a rainy day. If the amount of government stimulus was big enough, after doing the first two things, businesses and consumers would probably decide that they should spend the money.

My hunch is that such a plan would involve stimulus spending of at least $3 trillion to $5 trillion. But if such spending yielded an increase in demand, then businesses would start to add productive capacity and hire people to operate the plants. That would boost workers' incomes, which would then cause spending to rise. This could pose a huge inflationary risk once the economy got going again. But presumably, the Fed could then start raising interest rates to rein in that inflation.

For the time being, the Fed's power to fight deflation looks deflated to me -- it's up to fiscal policy now.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

[visch]

A gennaio l’economia rallenta, ma tiene.
A febbraio Morfeo Napolitano nutre qualche preoccupazione per il PIL.
A marzo Tremonti implora gli italiani, Geronzi, Profumo e Passera di comprare Bot, Btp e CCT.
Ad aprile lo psiconano garantisce sul futuro dell’Italia.
A maggio Boss(ol)i rassicura che il federalismo è alle porte.
A giugno alle elezioni non ci va nessuno.
A luglio i nuovi disoccupati sono più di due milioni.
Ad agosto Morfeo Napolitano spiega in diretta televisiva che una possibile crisi lo inquieta.
A settembre Tremonti taglia del 30% le pensioni e gli stipendi del pubblico impiego. Sempre a settembre il debito pubblico supera i 1900 miliardi. Sempre a settembre lo psiconano si fa riprendere in via Montenapoleone a Milano a fare acquisti per rassicurare gli italiani. Bondi, Cicchitto e Gasparri passano tutti i pomeriggi alla Upim a riempire i carrelli.
A ottobre gli insegnanti non ricevono lo stipendio e le scuole sono chiuse.
A novembre falliscono le amministrazioni pubbliche di Roma, Napoli, Palermo e Bari. Sempre a novembre lo psiconano si reca due settimane alle Barbados per dare l’esempio e dimostrare a tutti che la crisi è un’invenzione dei comunisti.
A dicembre, dall’elicottero, mentre varca il confine austriaco, Tremonti dichiara la bancarotta dello Stato e il federalismo fiscale. Nel senso che ognuno si terrà per sé quello che gli è rimasto in tasca.
A dicembre lo psiconano decide di prolungare per qualche anno le sue vacanze e di farsi assistere dal super consulente Lucianone Gaucci per trattare il suo rientro in Italia ai domiciliari con i tribunali della Repubblica.
Buon 2009!

[visch]

è una previsione anche quella

[ramirez]

Stocks started the week on a positive note again Monday, on optimism for a worldwide economic recovery later this year. But with the future still unclear and economic reports continuing to show deteriorating conditions, experts tell CNBC to stay out of stocks for the first half of 2009.

Stay Away from Stocks

In the first-half of 2009, do not bet on stocks at all, advises Stephen Gollop, CEO of Tyche. In light of this, he suggests investing in gold and managed futures.

2009 - An Inflection Year?

This could be an interesting inflection year for stocks, says Gabriel Yap, senior dealing director at DMG and Partners Securities. He tells CNBC what contributed to his view.

Crude Unlikely to Hold Onto Gains

The current bounce in oil prices is not sustainable, believes Jonathan Kornafel, director, Asia at Hudson Capital Energy. He gives his outlook on oil.

Commodity Currencies Seen Recovering

Expect a short-term recovery for commodity currencies at the expense of the yen and the dollar, forecasts John Noonan, senior FX analyst at Thomson Reuters.

Euro-Dollar's Rally Seems Overdone

The euro-dollar's rally in December seems overdone, says Claudio Piron, head of Asia FX research at JPMorgan. He tells CNBC that the cross could weaken to around the $1.36 levels as we approach mid-week.

Aussie Dollar Seen Gaining

The Aussie dollar could push towards $0.75 against the greenback within the next few days, says David Britten, risk manager of foreign exchange at Custom House.

Outlook for Emerging Markets in '09

Continue to exercise caution when investing in emerging markets, advises Stefan Hofer, emerging markets equity analyst at Julius Baer. He gives his outlook on the EM space in 2009.

India Will Face a Tough Challenge

India will have a tougher challenge compared to China in trying to revive their slowing economies, says Uwe Parpart, chief economist & strategist, Asia at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Asia Faces Serious Risk of Deflation

There is a serious risk of deflation in Asia in the next 3 to 6 months, says Rob Subbaraman, co-head of non-Japan Asia economics at Nomura International.

Asia's Recovery May Be Delayed Until 2010

There is a slight risk that Asia's recovery could be delayed until 2010, warns Rob Subbaraman, co-head of non-Japan Asia economics at Nomura International.

[hendrix30]

http://www.ansa.it/opencms/export/si...849060174.html

[ramirez]

Market Tips: Dollar Faces Big Bear, $1.60 Vs. Euro
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attento Scuba !!!!!!!!
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Despite the dollar's two-day rally against the euro and the yen, experts tell CNBC the greenback's positive run may be over shortly, as a fast recovery in the U.S. economy seems more unlikely.Bearish for the Long-Term on the Dollar

The dollar may slip into a multi-year bear trend this year, much like what happened in 2002 to 2005, says Callum Henderson, head of FX strategy at Standard Chartered. He tells CNBC that this may last through to 2011.

Dollar's Outlook is Dire

The U.S. economy may be the last to recover from the recession, says Clifford Bennett, chief economist of Kinetic Securities. As such, he tells CNBC the euro-dollar may retest highs of $1.60 as early as June.

Stimulus to Strengthen Greenback?

Euan McCreadie, senior corporate dealer at OzForex, believes U.S. president-elect Obama's stimulus plan will strengthen the dollar in the short-term. He speaks to CNBC about its likelihood of success.

Hot on Aussie-Euro for '09
Buy the Aussie dollar-euro cross at around the $0.50 mark, suggests John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at the National Australia Bank.

Oil Prices to Soar in '09

As socio-political and OPEC regulatory concerns affect output, oil prices are expected to rise in 2009 and beyond, according to David Johnson, head of Asia oil & gas at Macquarie Securities.

EM Stocks are Close to the Bottom

Stocks in emerging markets are close to the bottom, believes Arjuna Mahendran, MD & head of investment strategy, Asia at HSBC Private Bank. He gives his take on when these markets will recover.

Good Time to Buy Asian Stocks

Now may be a good time to buy Asian stocks to take advantage of the upcoming bear market rally in the U.S., says Hans Goetti, CIO at LGT Bank in Liechtenstein. He explains his investment rationale.

Chinese Stocks Look Cheap

Chinese stocks look cheap for the first time in 5 years as Erwin Sanft, head of China & HK research at BNP Paribas Securities thinks the market has largely priced in China's downturn.

Greater China IPO Market May Pick Up in '09

Richard Sun, partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers expects the IPO market in Hong Kong and mainland China to pick up in the second-half of this year.

Road Ahead of Japanese Automakers

Although Tatsuya Mizuno, director of corporates at Fitch Ratings expects the auto sector to remain weak for another 2 to 3 years, he believes Japanese automakers will be able to maintain a relatively strong position.