Thread personale, a mio uso, no opinioni, grazie.

[thedreamer]

LA PRESENTE DISCUSSIONE VUOLE ESSERE UNA SORTA DI MIO DIARIO CON STATISTICHE SUL MERCATO IMMOBILIARE ITALIANO E NON, CHE VUOLE RAPPRESENTARE SOLO UN PUNTO DI RIFERIMENTO A MIO USO E DI COLORO CHE VOGLIONO LEGGERE. NON CI SARANNO COMMENTI DA PARTE MIA, E DESIDERO CHE NON CI SIANO INTERVENTI NE PROVOCATORI Nè CONTRIBUTIVI DA PARTE DI ALTRI UTENTI. VI RINGRAZIO DELLA COLLABORAZIONE, IN FONDO è SOLO UNA DISCUSSIONE TRA LE MIGLIAIA APERTE OGNI GIORNO, SE VI SEMBRA CHE QUALCHE NOTIZIA SIA MERITEVOLE DI ESSERE RIPORTATA, COMUNICATEMELO IN PRIVATO, OPPURE LO COPIERò DA ALTRE DISCUSSIONI.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Existing Home Sales: Distressing Gap
by CalculatedRisk on 11/23/2009 01:45:00 PM
After the expected spike in existing home sales last month, I quoted legendary basketball coach John Wooden:

"Never mistake activity for achievement."
It is worth repeating this month.

First, it is important to remember that existing home sales are largely irrelevant for the economy. What matters for the economy are new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. And there has been little improvement in these key indicators.

This really shows up on the following graph:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows existing home sales (left axis) through October, and new home sales (right axis) through September.

The initial gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The recent spike in existing home sales was due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit.

But what matters for the economy - and jobs - is new home sales, and new home sales are still very low because of huge overhang of existing home inventory and rental properties.

Second, normally a decline in inventory and the months-of-supply would be considered a positive for the existing home market, however much of the apparent recent improvement in months-of-supply is related to the artificial - and likely short lived - boost in activity.

It is not all bad news. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in existing home inventory.

This inventory has been declining for some time, and is off almost 15% compared to last year. However the level of inventory is still high, and much of the recent inventory "improvement" has come at the expense of vacant rental units; the rental vacancy rate is now at a record 11.1%.

The key to reducing the overall inventory is new household formation, and the key to new household formation is jobs. Encouraging renters to become owners accomplishes nothing in reducing the overall housing inventory, and leads some analysts to mistake activity for achievement.



Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):

This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. For the fifth consecutive month, sales were higher in 2009 than in 2008.

And for the second straight month, sales in 2009 were higher than in 2007 (two years ago).

Of course many of these transactions in October were due to first-time homebuyers rushing to beat the expiration of the tax credit (that has now been extended). This has pushed sales far above the historical normal level; based on normal turnover, existing home sales would be in the 4.5 to 5.0 million SAAR range.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.57 million in October from the upwardly revised 3.71 million in September. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.

Typically inventory peaks in July or August, so some of this decline is seasonal.

The third graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply declined to 7.0 months in October.

Sales increased sharply, and inventory decreased, so "months of supply" declined. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is still high - and especially considering sales were artificially boosted by the tax credit.





The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Record Another Big Gain, Inventories Continue to Shrink

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 3.7 percent to 3.57 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.0-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from an 8.0-month supply in September. Unsold inventory totals are 14.9 percent below a year ago.

________________________________________ _________________________
Moody's: CRE Prices Off 43% from Peak
by CalculatedRisk on 11/20/2009 02:47:00 PM
From Globe St.: Values Off 43% From 2007 Peak

Prices nationwide have fallen 42.9% from their October 2007 peak, according to the latest Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index report issued Thursday, while Real Capital Analytics says total transaction volume for 2009 will be the lowest of the decade. The November Moody’s/REAL report ... covers transactions through Sept. 30 ... September’s index represented a 3.9% value decline compared to August.
...
"Further price declines are almost certain over the short term," says Nick Levidy, Moody’s managing director, in a statement. "However, it is notable that the pace of deterioration appears to be moderating."
Here is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

Notes: Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted. Moody's CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller - but there are far fewer commercial sales - and that can impact prices.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000.

The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

This shows residential leading CRE (although we usually talk about residential investment leading CRE investment, but in this case also for prices), and this also shows that prices tend to fall faster for CRE than for residential.

[thedreamer]

In seguito questo mess sarà modificato con dati...

[thedreamer]

Thursday, December 10, 2009
Fed Q3 Flow of Funds Report
by CalculatedRisk on 12/10/2009 11:59:00 AM
The Fed released the Q3 2009 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.

According to the Fed, household net worth is now off $11.9 Trillion from the peak in 2007, but up $4.9 trillion from the trough earlier this year.



This is the Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

Note that this ratio was relatively stable for almost 50 years, and then ... bubbles!

This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (of household real estate) was up to 38% from the all time low of 33.5% earlier this year. The increase was due to a slight increase in the value of household real estate and a decline in mortgage debt.

Note: approximately 31% of households do not have a mortgage. So the 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 38% equity.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Household assets as a percent of GDP increased in Q3 because of an increase in real estate values.

Mortgage debt declined by $70 billion - but will have to decline substantially (as a percent of GDP) to reach more normal levels.


Friday, December 11, 2009
Q3 2009: Mortgage Equity Extraction Strongly Negative
by CalculatedRisk on 12/11/2009 11:30:00 AM
Note: This is not MEW data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. My thanks to Jim Kennedy and the other Fed contributors for the previous MEW updates. For those interested in the last Kennedy data, here is a post, and the spreadsheet from the Fed is available here.

The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

For Q3 2009, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $91 billion, or negative 3.3% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This is not seasonally adjusted.

This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method.

The Fed's Flow of Funds report showed that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding declined in Q3, and this was partially because of debt cancellation per foreclosure sales, and some from modifications, like Wells Fargo's principal reduction program, and partially due to homeowners paying down their mortgages as opposed to borrowing more. Note: most homeowners pay down their principal a little each month unless they have an IO or Neg AM loan, so with no new borrowing, equity extraction would always be negative.

Equity extraction was very important in increasing consumer spending during the housing bubble (some disagree with this, but I think they are wrong). Atif Mian and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business wrote a piece earlier this year: Guest Contribution: Housing Bubble Fueled Consumer Spending

Findings in our research suggest ... the rise in house prices from 2002 to 2006 was a main driver of economic growth during this time period, and the subsequent collapse of house prices is likely a main contributor to the historic consumption decline over the past year.
Don't expect the Home ATM to be reopened any time soon - so any significant increase in consumer spending will come from income growth, not borrowing.

[falco d'oro]

Per me è OT

[ginopelo]

come mai è sparito il messaggio di gekko?

[Il_Sovrano]

Originalmente inviato da falco d'oro

Per me è OT

peggio: un uso personale di forum pubblico.

Bah

[cricket72]

Originalmente inviato da Simo83

[B][COLOR="Red"]
... NON CI SARANNO COMMENTI DA PARTE MIA, E DESIDERO CHE NON CI SIANO INTERVENTI NE PROVOCATORI Nè CONTRIBUTIVI DA PARTE DI ALTRI UTENTI.

come le ho già detto in privato il thread è pubblico e non può impedire ad altri forumisti di intervenire nella discussione
se vuole farsi un diario personale riportando articoli e materiale utile può utilizzare il suo blog personale che il Fol le mette a disposizione
se non accetterà il contributo di altri utenti nella discussione sarò costretto a chiuderla

[ccc]

ci sono i prepotenti anche sul forum.

[gordon81]

Originalmente inviato da ccc

ci sono i prepotenti anche sul forum.

soprattutto sul forum...con l'anonimato sono tutti leoni...hihihihi...