Visualizza versione completa : SRLM.PK l'argento americano....
Dopo aver venduto IMR...
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=615119&page=1&folsession=30155bd56ca9be42cc71f57389aba e50
mi sono spostato su questo titolozzo.... SRLM.PK...
Un titolo dai numeri decisamente impressionanti.....
Un titolo che aveva dato aspettative incredibili negli scorsi anni... oggi niente è cambiato... a parte una piccola lite tra un ex investitore dei 14 US$ contro De Motte il CEO... ma NON sembra contro SRLM ... ed il fatto che la miniere NON è ALLAGATA....
Eppure guardate....
CDE... con 240 milioni di azioni e forse più senza considerare le tonnellate di warrant emessi... capitalizza a 4,19 più di un miliardo di dollari...
Ed ha riserve per 286 mil oz di cui moltissime nella instabilissima BOLIVIA...
La differenza sta nel fatto che CDE quota nel Nyse... ed è ben sostenuta dalla sua enorme liquidità... (282 milioni di dollari)...
Ma sinceramente oggi avere liquidità con il dollaro in evaporazione NON È UNA BUONA COSA....
Utilizzando il metodo di Hommel questa oggi è estremamente conveniente...
2.62 $ x 12.2 milioni di azioni = 31.96 milioni $
31.96 milioni $ / 231 milioni ozs = 0.138355 $/oz
Prezzo argento 7.70 US$/oz...
7.70 / 0.138355 = 55.65 oz di argento per ogni oncia di valore dell'azione !
Secondo Hommel il potenziale esplorativo è di 550 milioni di once...
31.96 milioni $ / 550 milioni ozs = 0.05811 $/oz !!!!!!!!!
7.70 / 0.05811 = 132.51 oz di argento potenziale per ogni oncia di valore dell'azione !
In febbraio girava la voce la miniera fosse allagata... e si sà che è parecchio costoso (alcuni milioni di dollari)... asciugarala... ma la società afferma fermamente così non è... ed ha portato un giornalista a vedere....
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Sunshine's Jewell Re-opens
By DON SAUER - Hagadone News Network
Crew finds conditions good in mine shaft
KELLOGG -- The "Grand Dame" of the Coeur d'Alene Mining District began stirring this week after a three-year nap.
The hoist wheels on the head frame above Sunshine Mine's Jewell Shaft were turning Thursday as personnel from Sterling Mining Co. descended into the depths to assess the possibility of reopening the giant silver producer.
Work on bringing the Jewell Shaft and its hoist back up to operating standards has been going on for several months. This week crews were able to actually get underground to begin inspecting the internal workings of the mine.
So far, they like what they see.
"We were surprised and very pleased with what we found," said Brian Higdem, maintenance manager at the Sunshine. "The 3,100 level was dry. The drifts are in good shape. This has all been the big unknown up to this point."
Higdem said crews will now focus on putting the various stations into working order, re-establishing communication systems and bringing other electrical systems on line.
Jim Thomas, an engineer at the Sunshine, said that they had a good idea where the water level was in the mine, but until they got underground, they didn't know whether there had been much ground movement.
Assessing the condition of the underground workings was critical in bringing the mine back into production, said Sterling president Ray DeMotte.
"Until now, all of our projected economic costs have been based on assumptions," DeMotte said. "Now we can actually see what is down there."
Sterling took over the Sunshine in June 2003. While the work is moving along as planned, DeMotte said the company will proceed cautiously during the next phases.
"We don't want to open up, and a year later have to lay everybody off because we weren't able to sustain production," he said. "We moved slower in the initial months to make sure we picked the right people for this project, and now we feel very confident that we have done that."
Surface exploration has moved more rapidly than anticipated, DeMotte said.
"We saw the potential for this area early on," he said. "And we drove right ahead with our surface explorations and we feel the silver is out there."
He added that Sterling has also been purchasing other properties throughout the valley and now owns more than 10,000 acres in the area.
http://www.sterlingmining.com/printables/presscda.html
Ecco la notizia della causa CONTRO Ray De Motte per 3,4 milioni di dollari... ma non CONTRO SRLM.PK
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SPOKANE, Wash. -- An investor is suing Ray De Motte, the president of the company trying to reopen the Sunshine Mine in northern Idaho, claiming that De Motte bilked him out of nearly $3.4 million through fraudulent business practices.
James D. Christianson of Vancouver, Wash., invested in Sterling Mining Co. and other companies that De Motte and his associates controlled or had a financial interest in during a two-year period, according to the suit filed last week in federal court in Tacoma.
Christianson bought his first Sterling stock in 2003, the suit said. Several months later, he met De Motte at a silver investment conference in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho.
The suit says De Motte painted a favorable picture of prospects at the defunct Sunshine Mine and implied it could be producing silver in 18 months when he knew the opening was probably eight years away. The suit says De Motte persuaded Christianson to invest heavily in Sterling Mining and other ventures, including a charter plane service out of Wallace, Idaho, and real estate.
"I obviously disagree with the allegations," De Motte told the Spokesman-Review newspaper of Spokane on Friday. "I plan to vigorously defend my reputation."
The Sunshine Mine near Kellogg, Idaho, was one of the area's largest private employers when it shut down in 2001. Sterling Mining is leasing the mine from a Nevada firm that bought it from bankruptcy trustees. Sterling's nine employees in Kellogg are fixing up the mine, De Motte said.
Christianson's suit seeks more than $3.2 million in financial losses, plus interest and other compensation. It names De Motte, De Motte's business partner Melanie Farrand, and Sterling director Carol Stephan.
The suit also alleges that De Motte engaged in securities fraud. De Motte was a director and investor in several other mining stocks, and purportedly told Christianson that he planned to reactivate the largely dormant companies. De Motte encouraged Christianson to buy stock in several of the firms, the suit said. After reassuring Christianson that he was keeping his shares, De Motte sold his stock when the price was high, and Christianson was stuck with devalued stock, the suit said.
According to the suit, Christianson invested $2.2 million in Sterling Mining, and nearly $1.2 million in businesses that De Motte and his associates controlled or had financial interests in.
La società ha due progetti... il più piccolo ma già in una fase avanzata è in Messico... il più grande è negli USA (e questa è già di per se una garanzia contro nazionalizzazioni ecc. ecc.)....
Il progetto USA è la mitica miniera Sunshine... una miniera che ha costantemente prodotto argento negli ultimi 100 anni... a ritmi da 3 milioni di once all'anno...
Nel 2001 la società che la gestiva è fallita a causa dei prezzi dell'argento troppo bassi... ma nella miniera vi sono ancora stimate riservedi 26.75 milioni ounce d'argento, 10.36 milioni pounds di rame e 7.05 milioni pounds di piombo, ed inoltre ben 159.66 milion ounces d'argento di risorse.
Ma questo non è tutto... le vene d'argento sono molte di più molto probabilmente... Hommel arriva a stimare in 550 milioni le once d'argento della società....
Guardate la costanza con la quale man mano venivano scoperte sempre nuove riserve nella Sunshine... la Silver Vallei è un luogo unico sulla terra...
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Nel 1993, la famosa compagnia Sunshine mining company aveva una capitalizzazione di $500 milioni, mentre avevano $100 milioni di debiti !!!
Oggi soltanto 31.96 milioni $ !!!!!!
Che comprendono anche la proprietà in Messico,...
La società ha la miniera in leasing per 15 anni.... a $120,000 anno con l'opzione finale di acquistarla tra i $3 milioni ed $5 milioni a seconda del prezzo dell'argento in quel futuro momento...
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Sterling Mining Company Leases the Sunshine Mine
COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho--June 11, 2003--Sterling Mining Company (OTCBB:SRLM), is very pleased to announce that it has signed a lease, with option to purchase, on the world-famous Sunshine Mine, the richest silver mine in American history with more than 350 million ounces of production over the past century.
At the time of its closure in early 2001, the Sunshine was producing at a rate of over three million ounces of silver per year at an average grade of approximately twenty ounces per ton. The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver.
The lease term extends for fifteen years with an annual payment of $120,000 and with an option to purchase the mine set between $3 million and $5 million, depending upon the prevailing silver price. Mine production is subject to various royalties related to past arrangements with federal, state and tribal entities.
Sterling President Ray De Motte stated, "Our corporate strategy has been to enhance shareholder value by increasing our silver assets, with our primary focus on the Coeur d'Alene Mining District. The lease-option agreement signed today gives Sterling effective control of the region's most historically productive silver mine, putting the Sunshine in local hands for the first time in decades. We firmly believe that this transaction, coupled with a plan to evaluate the feasibility of renewed production, serves not merely the interests of our shareholders but also of the entire local community."
Sterling Mining Company is an aggressive silver exploration company, focused upon the Coeur d'Alene Mining District, the richest primary silver-producing region on Earth. Sterling offers superior leverage to silver price increases through control of extensive and strategic "Silver Valley" landholdings, including the legendary Sunshine Mine, as well as through significant projects in other historic mining districts of the Western United States. Sterling was founded in 1903 and proudly celebrates a century of mining exploration this year.
Sterling Mining Company of Idaho is not affiliated with Sterling Mining Company of Montana.
Sterling Mining Company is an aggressive precious metal exploration company, focused upon the Coeur d'Alene Mining District, the richest primary silver-producing region on Earth. Sterling offers superior leverage to silver and gold price increases through control of extensive and strategic "Silver Valley" landholdings, as well as through several significant projects in historic mining districts of Idaho, Montana, and Arizona and along the prolific gold belts of northern Nevada. Sterling was founded in 1903 and proudly celebrates a century of mining exploration this coming year.
http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html
Nessun debito, nessun hedge sull'argento... infrastrutture già pronte (che da sole costano milioni).... resta una domanda: COME MAI COSTA COSÌ POCO ??
Ecco una presentazione recente di Hommell e Lou Passi...
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Silver and Sterling Mining
Lou Passi and Jason Hommel
Here's a riddle that everyone will surely answer differently. What is it that you can't live without, yet is so scarce it may soon disappear altogether? The hopeless romantic might reply that it's "the love of a good woman". An environmentalist might complain that it's "fresh air in a smog-filled metropolis". And the political activist might simply shout "freedom". But, let's add another wrinkle to our riddle. What is it that is also sold short in amounts that far exceed its global supply? Impossible you say? Well, the correct answer to this riddle is SILVER.
Yes, silver is truly an indispensable commodity. It has a number of unique properties including strength, malleability and ductility, electrical and thermal conductivity, sensitivity to and high reflectance of light, and the ability to endure extreme temperatures. Because of silver's unique properties, it can't be substituted in most applications. A partial list of critical silver applications includes batteries, bearings, catalysts, electronics, electroplating, medical, photography, solar energy and water purification.
Due to silver's many invaluable uses, it has been consumed in industry in large amounts, about 7/10ths of an ounce of silver, per person, in the U.S., since 1945.
Thus, 60 years later, by today, silver is now also a scarce commodity. World demand for silver exceeds annual production and has every year since 1990 - a total of 15 straight years. Few primary silver mines are operating today due to current low silver prices, but prices are likely headed much higher and soon because above ground supplies are low, shrinking rapidly and approaching zero. The market has been living off silver inventories since 1990. Inventories are at historically low levels. From a peak of 2.2 billion ounces of silver in 1990, bullion inventories are now estimated at just 300 million ounces. Imagine how much lower supply might be in a year or two from now.
Most incredible of all is that due to excessive naked short selling and leasing, silver has the largest short position that's ever existed in anything! A naked short sale is the sale of something you don't own. Current naked short positions in silver (including over the counter, uncounted derivatives) total in the billions of ounces - that's with a "B" - and exceed real world supplies by billions of ounces too.
Regulations are supposed to preclude excessive short speculation, but regulators have apparently neglected to police the silver market. As a result, unbridled short selling has artificially depressed silver's price. Eventually, all short sellers will close their short positions by buying or delivering the physical silver they sold. And why? Because "He who sells what isn't his'n, buys it back, or goes to prison!" That means we're going to see a silver price explosion when short-covering buyers compete for too few ounces of available silver. And so, we might also see delivery defaults! In fact, the move towards defaults and rising prices has already begun, if you consider position limits as a breakdown on the freedom people should have to buy what they want. Today, silver is priced at about U.S. $7.50 an ounce, already up 70% in the past 24 months, but well below it's all-time high of near $50 in 1980.
If you want to capitalize on this silver price explosion, by all means start accumulating silver bullion bars and coins (if you can find them) at today's relatively low, low prices. More aggressive investors will desire to own shares in a variety of mining companies highly leveraged to the price of silver.
Sterling Mining (SRLM - Pink Sheets) is one such company. The share price March 31 was $3.60/share. With 15 million shares outstanding, the market cap is $54 million. With 15.8 million shares fully diluted, the market cap is $57 million.
Sterling now controls the legendary Sunshine Mine, the richest silver mine in American history with more than 360 million ounces of production over the past century. Mine reserves stand at 26 million ounces of silver, as well as an additional resource of 160 million ounces of silver, for a total of 186 million oz. of silver. The mine is leased for 15 years, and can be bought for an additional $5 million.
Sterling acquired the Sunshine Mine after the Sunshine mining company went bankrupt. In 1993, the famous Sunshine mining company had a market cap of $500 million, while they were $100 million in debt. The debt caught up with them as silver prices dropped in 1999-2002.
Today, lean Sterling Mining has a market cap of about $70 million, and is debt free. Thus, Sterling Mining may have an upside potential to increase their market cap by about 7 times to return to the former valuation.
Oddly, the Sunshine Mine was profitable when it closed in 2001. It was producing at a rate of over three million ounces of silver per year at an average grade of approximately 20 ounces per ton and a cash cost of just $4.49/ounce. The property includes offices, a 1,100-ton-per-day mill, more than 100 miles of underground workings, and 2,300 acres of mineral rights.
In 2003-04 Sterling completed a surface geophysical program on the property to explore for the potential upward continuation of silver-bearing structures. The program identified five target areas, and in September 2004 an initial surface drill program was conducted. Sterling is following a methodical approach preparing the mine for a return to long-term sustainable production.
Sterling Mining's share price has suffered recently, down to just below $4/share from a high of about $14/share, perhaps partly due to rumors on the internet about mine flooding. Olav Svela, Vice President, has firmly stated:
"There is no water problem at the Sunshine mine. We are currently finishing up our Phase II development plan for the mine and hope to be in production within a couple of years, if not sooner."
Many silver stocks, in general, have also been hit by two problems in the last year. First, silver prices stalled in April 2004, when silver hit a high price of $8.40, and then crashed back to $5.50, thus discouraging many silver stock investors. Second, many private placement shares have come free trading, and that puts downward pressure on share prices as initial investors with large blocks of shares cash out to lock in gains. Sterling Mining gained from a low of about $.25/share in early 2003 prior to the acquisition of the Sunshine mine.
Sterling is now the 7th largest primary silver company in the world with 231 million ounces of silver resources or 19 ounces of silver per share. Silver accounts for 91 percent of the company's total resources, making it a high-leveraged silver stock.
Other Company Projects: (many leased, not all 100% owned)
Coeur D'Alene Mining District - In addition to the Sunshine Mine, Sterling controls more than 15,000 acres of mineral rights in the Silver Valley. This is one of the richest silver districts on earth, yet there's been relatively little surface exploration conducted by modern techniques. Recent discoveries indicate that significant silver mineralization is just waiting to be found.
Mexico Projects. In 2003 and 2004 Sterling acquired a number of properties in Zacatecas State, Mexico, with rapid production and exploration potential for 100+ million ounces of near-surface silver resources.
Baroness Tailing Project - an advanced stage project located in the Zacatecas Mining District, Mexico. Production is expected to begin in 2005. It is estimated that the project contains 5 million metric tons of finely ground tailings that average 3.0 ounces per ton silver and 0.02 ounces per ton gold, which is a resource of 15 million ounces of silver and 100,000 ounces of gold. Processing costs are expected to be $3.50 per ton or less.
Milagros Property - Sterling Mining holds an option on the Tesorito and Tabasquena claims near the prolific Milagros property in Zacatecas State, Mexico. The claims comprise two shallow shafts (about 65 feet and 280 feet deep, respectively) approximately half a mile apart, sunk onto a major silver-bearing epithermal vein structure. The reported thickness of the vein averages about 10 feet, widening to nearly 20 feet. The structure is believed to be open along strike on both ends, as well as at depth. Earlier reports have estimated that between the two shafts lies an estimated one million tons of mineralization, which, based on past smelter returns, has historically produced ore at 17 ounces per ton silver, implying a 17 million oz. silver resource.
San Acacio - The San Acacio Silver Project, located four miles from the City of Zacatecas, Mexico, comprises the old San Acacio Mine within the famous Veta Grande Mining District that has produced 180 million ounces of silver. The San Acacio claims cover roughly four miles of the Veta Grande quartz-carbonate vein system. Historical reports indicate a drill-inferred resource of 14.4 million ounces of silver. Previous operators have used this drill data to estimate an additional 3.1 million tons at a grade of 5 ounces per ton silver, yielding another 15.5 million ounces. Sterling management anticipates that surface drilling will be conducted on the property in early 2005.
JE Project - 700 acres of property located in the 'Persian Gulf of Silver', a NW Montana region of several low-grade 100+ million ounce deposits. Stratabound silver/copper mineralization was defined in this area by eight diamond drill holes adjacent to the NNW-trending Snake Creek Fault. Sterling aims to conduct an initial exploration program in 2005 to test the zone of mineralization between the discovery hole and the Snake Creek Fault, where grades are expected to increase. Management believes this property has the potential for 50+ million ounces of silver resources.
Montana Silver-Copper Sulfide Belt - covers a 1,600 square mile area in Sanders County, northwest Montana. In this area three world-class silver/copper deposits have recently been identified: The Troy, Rock Creek and Montanore deposits. These three deposits contain roughly 350 million tons averaging 0.75 copper and 1.75 ounces per ton silver. In 2003-04, Sterling Mining acquired a number of properties in this area.
Other silver companies in Montana are Mines Management (MGN - Amex) and O.T. Mining (OTMN - pink sheets). Montana's Governor has recently stated his strong support of mining interests in the state.
Company Objectives
* Begin producing silver in Mexico in 2005
* Grow annual production in Mexico to 2+ million ounces within 24 months
* Restart production at the Sunshine Mine within 36 months
* Increase silver resources to 400+ million ounces within 3 years
* Hold outstanding shares under 25 million to maximize shareholder value
* Seek listing on AMEX within 12 months
Sterling is as close to a pure leveraged play on silver as you will find among mid-tier mining companies. The company's share price should also benefit from a solid "producer bonus" as production begins in Mexico this year and from additional silver discoveries. Furthermore, the company's silver ounces in the ground are also among the cheapest you can buy, if you buy stock at current prices, which is priced at about $.29/oz. in the ground.
March 31, 2005
Disclaimers: All potential investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence, and/or contact Sterling Mining to verify all important information. For more information or to subscribe to Sterling's mailing list, please visit the company's web site at http://sterlingmining.com. You can also call Olav Svela, Vice President Cavalcanti Hume Funfer Inc. Investor Relations, at 1-416-868-1079. He'll be glad to hear from you.
Lou Passi is a private investor and retired pharmaceutical executive living in Chicago. Mr. Passi was not paid by Sterling Mining for producing this article, nor does he work for the company. He does own shares in Sterling Mining. Lou Passi can be contacted via e-mail at louispassi2004@comcast.net.
Jason Hommel sponsored the writing of this essay by offering to give a 100 oz. silver bar to whomever could write the best essay on silver and Sterling Mining. Mr. Hommel edited the essay and added a few bits of information that were researched and highlighted by other essay contestants. He owns shares in Sterling Mining and was not paid by the company to write this article.
This essay was first sent out via email on March 11th. I, Jason Hommel, have purchased all of my stock in Sterling Mining on the open market between about $3.70 and $4.20. Sterling Mining is now my third largest stock holding, and I own over 100,000 shares.
Jason Hommel writes a weekly silver stock report that covers the market caps of about 80 silver stocks. See silverstockreport.com
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommel040105.html
Se non credete... leggete qui:
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/agmis1204.pdf
Documento governativo USA che conferma che al momento della chiusura nel 2001 la Sunshine produceva 5 milioni di once all'anno...
Tanto per fare un paragone CDE produce oggi 14,2 milioni di once all'anno:
SRLM.PK dovrebbe quindi quotare un 1/3 di miliardo di dollari... ma quota 1/30
Che dire del suo andamento ?
Prima di acquisire la sunshine quotava 25 centesimi di dollaro... successivamente ha iniziato a salire quasi senza sosta fino a 14 dollari...
Un + 5500 %
Poi sono iniziati i profit taking... ed il progetto è pure stato ridimensionato nella velocità con cui la miniera sarebbe stata riportata in produzione... (la società ha pochissimi dipendenti)....
Sembra che De Motte voglia prendersela con calma minimizzando i rischi di una ripartenza prematura.... (se l'argento torna sui 5 dollari la miniera non è economicamente conveniente producendo attorno argento al costo di 4,5 $)....
Una certa delusione ha circondato il titolo che è quindi ultimamente arrivato a perdere oltre l'80% dai massimi...
Cosa c'è sotto ? Mah ?
Secondo me niente più che irrazionalità... la stessa che ha portato il titolo a 14... porta a vendere oggi... rendendolo oggi decisamente appetibile...
Il titolo è poco reattivo ai prezzi dell'argento... guardate questa settimana... nonostante l'ottimo andamento dell'Ag....
Qualcuno ne ha le @@ piene e dopo anni ed anni di pazienza scarica... non si preoccupa di distribuire almeno un pò... la frustrazione di vedere un rosso in un giorno in cui l'Ag fa +3% è troppa.... anche i casini legali del CEO fanno la sua parte...
Ma qualcuno le compra... :D chi ? Forse chi vendeva a 14 ???
Non è quindi da aspettarsi risultati veloci... qui ci vuole pazienza...
Nel mio caso le SRLM.PK sono nel cassetto... obbiettivo 24 mesi: 10 dollari.
Confronto cono lo Xau... indice azioni Gold & Silver...
Molto interessante World... credo ke cmq sia meglio attendere un segnale di inversione (o di possibile arresto della discesa...) su base weekly
Non ho le trends su bigcharts, e stockcharts nn ha titolo nel Dbase, ma direi ke le quotazioni si stanno avvicinando ai livelli da cui partì la galoppata del titolo a fine luglio 2003, guarda caso con un gap-up mai + richiuso
Non è detto ke lo vada a chiudere ora, ma un giretto al livello superiore del gap mi pare probabile.
Come possibili segnali inversione trend weekly, cross ema10 > ema20 , macd > 0 ed rsi > 50
Questa me la segno x il post sulle probabili inversioni weekly, anche se x ora nn se ne parla....
La cosa bella poi che la miniera è NEGLI USA...
Non è cosa da poco... vi è la sicurezza di non vedersi nazionalizzare la risorse...
Ecco ancora cosa dice Hommel...
Ray DeMotte really, really understands the silver story, and has been aggressively acquiring silver properties. Sterling continues to consolidate its land position around the Sunshine mine, and refurbish the mine.
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine had "more than 360 million ounces of production over the past century" and was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer.
The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices. See also: December 14, 2003: "In light of the continued low silver price, Sterling has this year begun holding back into inventory a portion of this year's silver coins minted."
For more detailed information on what's happening in the Silver Valley in Idaho, see the following link:
http://www.blanketpower.com/mining/titlepage.htm
Grazie Max... è incredibile le proprietà che ha nella Silver Vallei (Cour D'alene District)... solo da un punto di vista immobiliare è grandissima...
Terra bella... nelle foreste...fresca d'estate...
Si, il fatto che sia in america è una garanzia, ma il problema è che è una .pk ed ho pagato sulla pelle tante "furbate"...
Si, il fatto che sia in america è una garanzia, ma il problema è che è una .pk ed ho pagato sulla pelle tante "furbate"...
effettivamente bisognerebbe informarsi del perche e' un pk prima di accquistare questo titolo,so che alcune societa' chiedono il delisting dal nasdaq-amex-nyse per quotarsi in questo mercato causa spese molto alte per migliorare i bilanci come ha fatto jpst per esempio,altrimenti se non fosse cosi la cosa risulterebbe al quanto sospetta.Capisco rischiare 500-1000 dollari su un titolo .pk a 0,10 con la speranza che ti faccia un 400-500% ma entrare con questa somma su un titolo che quota 3 dollari e' troppo irrisorio ne servirebbero almeno 2-3 mila e la cosa diventeebbe alquanto rischiosa visto che il titolo essendo un pk ti puo anche andare a 0 e magari aprirti in gap down a -60.
Raga questa è nata come PK... e tale resta per una questione di costi... la quotazione sul Nasdaq ed Amex è assai costosa...
Anche IMR era PK.... (ne ho parlato recentemente)... poi upgradata ad AMEX... nel bussines minerario i rischi sono grossi ma non necessariamente il fatto di essere quotati sul Nyse invece che su PK cambia le cose....
A mio modesto avviso: CDE è quotata sul Nyse ma è enormemente sopravalutata rispetto a SRLM.PK...
Un -60% da questo livello significherebbe vederla attorno ad 1 dollaro.... con un capitalizzazione di 12,2 milioni di dollari... circa l'1,2% della capitalizzazione di CDE con risorse praticamente uguali...
Ok... la fantascienza... ma a tutto c'è un limite :D
Certamente se il Silver tornasse stabilmente a 5 dollari... forse potremmo rivederla anche 1 dollaro... ma a mio modestissimo avviso è molto molto improbabile....
E poi raga cosa centra la quotazione ?
Se avete sul mercato 10 miliardi di azioni a 0,10 e cinque miliardi di warrant... la capitalizazzione supera ampiamente 1 miliardo di dollari...
Bisogna vedere cosa c'è sotto il fumo... solo arrosto ... o solo carta ?
:cool:
bartolumeo
10-10-05, 09:30
Intanto il silver sta iniziando bene la settimana.
Sembra pronto per l'attacco agli 8$ :eek:
E già .......... :D hanno finito di comprare....
Silver's looking better and better to analysts...
RENO--(Mineweb.com) While gold and copper are commanding the lion's share of attention as commodities and metals prices hit record highs, better keep an eye on that upstart silver.
Thanks to high oil prices and currency valuation concerns, there is a new and growing audience of institutional investors and the general public who are holding some form of gold investment. Nevertheless, expanding investment demand and new industrial and medical uses are making silver shine.
Nevertheless, would-be silver investors find their choices limited to a small and highly specialized group of metal and mineral investment alternatives, including silver bullion (physical metals, options or futures), or in a handful of primary silver producers, and/or a small but growing number of silver exploration stocks.
Last month, RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage on a small group of silver companies and silver exploration juniors. In a recently published analysis, RBC Analyst Michael Curran and Associate Ryan Dolan explained that silver equities "are highly correlated with spot silver prices, and often show enhanced leverage when movements in equity prices can be significantly greater than the movement in underlying commodity prices."
Curran and Dolan declared they have a "short-term bullish outlook on silver," forecasting that silver prices will average $7 per ounce this year and rise to an average of $7.25 ounce next year. While RBC is bullish on the fundamentals of silver for the next few years, "new and significant demand uses would be needed" to bolster silver prices over $8/oz for a prolonged period, they asserted.
"We see opportunity for renewed strength in silver prices as aboveground stockpiles, which have been eroded significantly over the past decade, struggling to keep pace with excess global demand (over new mine supply)." RBC also cites prospects for new demand usage, potential for a recovery in silver jewelry demand, and possible SEC approval of silver ETFs.
Barclays Bank is seeking SEC approval to begin a new exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust. Each ETF unit would represent 10 ounces of silver, which would be backed by silver bullion. Purchases and sales of silver to and from the fund would be made in baskets of 500,000 ounces or units of 50,000 iShares, according to Currie and Dolan.
The silver ETF is similar in concept to the Gold ETF, which has been a resounding success in major world markets as a new investment tool. If approved, the silver ETF is anticipated to expand the liquidity of investments in silver, which possesses more volatility than gold at this point. However, Curran and Dolan remain skeptical that the commodity-backed ETFs will not cannibalize investment interest in purchasing gold or silver mining stocks.
The analysts favor Idaho-based silver producer Hecla Mining and explorationist Western Silver Corp. RBC has also initiated coverage on Coeur d'Alene Mines, Pan American Silver, and Silver Wheaton.
Long-time silver analyst and newsletter publisher David Morgan suggested silver may break through the $8 per ounce level. "Silver has already made a break through the $8 level twice," he wrote in the most recent edition of the Silver Investor Newsletter.
Morgan explained that concerns about oil supplies and debasement of the world's reserve currency has convinced more institutional investors and the general public to invest in precious metals. "Since silver is such a small market, the potential for gains is very significant and this will be realized over the next few years," he wrote.
Although China has historically been a silver exporter, Morgan suggested that as the nation embraces high technology and industrial growth, silver may be in such high demand that "China may not sell any silver from this point forward."
In a presentation last month to the Silver Summit and in the most recent edition of his newsletter, Morgan also forecast a growing demand for silver to be utilized in the Radio Frequency Identification chip (RFID). Morgan wrote, "Our sources indicated that by 2008 about 100 billion RFIDs will be produced on an annual basis. This would produce a consumption rate of over 30 million ounces of silver annually, and most of this silver would end up in waste dumps. This is greater than the amount of silver that will be produced by San Cristobal, Apex's larger zinc/silver mine."
Systems using the RFID tracking chip are anticipated to be used in retail stories and warehouses.
Like Morgan, RBC's analysts have also noted the growing use of silver in many electrical applications, in electronics and other industrial uses, and in medicine and public health. At the Silver Summit, Morgan forecast a potential 80 million-ounce silver demand for wood preservation, 50-million ounces of demand for superconductivity use, and millions of ounces in possible demand for silver in defense weaponry systems. Overall, Morgan believes these uses will require a 20% increase in current annual silver demand.
Despite these industrial and medical applications, RBC Capital has tracked what they believe is a "strong recent correlation between silver and gold (+80%)," which suggests that "investors still consider silver mainly as a precious metal."
Curran and Dolan asserted that silver equities will behave "similar to other commodity groups whereby new discoveries, and resource and reserve additions are viewed as value-creating events. ...Acquisitions and successful growth may also create value through multiple expansion." They discovered that "there has been a significant increase in the trading of silver futures on the COMEX" where silver contracts have ranged from a low of just under 10,000 to a high of almost 90,000 contracts.
Roger Wiegand, analyst and editor of the newsletter Trader Tracks, specializes in futures and commodities. Wiegand believes that--"with silver's buying power for now, and the gentle rally pattern, we expect a smooth rise to our goal of $9.75-$10.50" per ounce. He also noted that silver "has an open interest of over 97,000 December contracts." Wiegand has been regularly tracking Silver Standard, Coeur d'Alene and Silver Wheaton in his Top Ten Stocks.
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/499622.htm
Notare come viene sempre citata CDE... ;)
L'avvento di un ETF sull'argento potrebbe rapidamente portarne le quotazione ben sopra i 10 US$... forse 30 US$
Tale avvento potrebbe esserci il prossimo anno...
Un analogo ETF sull'oro (GLD) ha rapidamente raccolto 3,15 miliardi di dollari... ora una cifra simile sull'argento ne porterebbe le quotazioni alle stelle... ;)
complimenti world!!!!! molto interessante la storia di questo titolo...adesso è capire quando entrare.....la studio qualche giorno!
Scusa worldlove
ma dove e con chi lo acquisti un titolo cosi ???
Mah... l'argento sembra orientato a spaccare tutto... ma mai fidarsi troppo ... ha nemici potenti... (che forse hanno finito tutte le cartucce)....
Dovrebbe quotare 1/10 dell'oro... quindi 47 dollari...
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/
Con Directa... e penso anche IWBank.. Fineco non credo...
lollofanki
10-10-05, 14:05
Buongiorno
forse mè sfuggito qualche passaggio
ma su che mercato è quotata?
grazie ciao
È quotata sui Pink Sheet USA....
----------------------------------
Ecco un bel commento che ho trovato su SRLM.PK....
There was a rumour going around in January and Febuary that the mines were flooded and the stock took a pretty good beating. But, the rumour was discredited and the stock shot back up with huge volume in late Feb.
Since then the stock has settled down and it seems to have been drifting lower on small volumes. With a lot of these stocks, if there is no really good news, they always seem to drift lower. I noticed today that it was up almost 6% on big volume, so obviously someone came in in a big way.
Sterling has a very small float and still trades on the pink sheets so it is prone to these huge swings. You probably won't get much response to your question. I asked the same question in Feb when it was going down very aggressively, at that time someone here enlightened me as to what the rumour was (it was just an internet chat room rumour). I poke around a little on these sites, but not too much, so I hadn't heard of the rumour. I contacted people at Sterling and people close to Sterling and they refuted the rumour publicly. After I had gotten to the bottom of the rumour, some here thought that I had done something un-ethical. Go figure on that one....
But, Sterling can get pushed around pretty easy by traders. From what I can see, the fundamental story is still in place. This is the second time in three months that the price has gotten pushed down to 3.40 or so a share, and both times heavy buyers have moved in. To, me this looks like a pretty good entry point on the stock. I think that for Sterling to settle down a little bit, it is going to have to get itself off the pink sheets. That is one major complaint that I have heard about them is that they haven't done the things necessary to make that happen yet. Some would probably argue that they haven't done this because they have something to hide.....could be true, who knows. But, to me it looks like the fundamentals are still in place. I live fairly close to Sterling and have relatives that literally live next to it. It is a small town, so it would be pretty hard for Sterling to hide something without it getting out. But, I am biased because I do own the stock, so take it for what it is worth. I have been just adding to my position when it goes below 4 bucks a share.
But, bottom line, is that until they get off the pink sheets, the stock can get pushed around pretty easy by all the scammers, manipulators, and rumour mills. If Sterling can pull off re-opening Sunshine though, watch out...it will be fun.
Ancora meglio... +8.78% :D
Mi ero dimenticato di un'altro progetto a bassa concentrazione di Ag 1,82 oz/tonnellata... in Montana ... ma con 715 milioni di once di Ag... e 5,6 miliardi pound di Cu...
Non so se economicamente oggi sfruttabile... ma domani ???
OK!
E poi ancora Messico...15 milioni di once d'argento e 100.000 once d'oro... miniera di superficie costi bassi... già in avanzato stadio di realizzazione.... :D
Raga più la studio... e più mi piace... :D :D :D
Ho la strana impressione che sia manovrata verso il basso con il fine di accumulare.... :censored:
Oggi il Silver rintraccia un pochino ......
Oggi SRLM.PK flat con qualche volume....
Giornata senza infamia ne lode... anzi meglio di molti altri Silver...
Ho contattato la compagnia per chiedere ragioni sui recenti cali... questa la risposta...
Hi.....: Sterling continues to work on the redevelopment and eventual re-opening of the Sunshine mine. So that hasn’t changed and we are planning to announce the level of production at the Baroness Project in Mexico soon. Perhaps the market is getting a bit impatient, but the reality is that Sterling is moving ahead with its projects.
Olav
Olav Svela [olav@chfir.com]
October 08, 2005
By Sean Rakhimov
Editor, www.SilverStrategies.com
The world is running out of silver. Or is it? Let us qualify that: the world is running out of cheap silver. And how, you ask, we arrive at such conclusion? And I turn it right back at you, and say – show me the silver! With the price of every commodity going up what do you think it will do to the price of silver?
As we look around the world we find all but two-three dozen silver companies. That’s against a backdrop of hundreds of gold, oil, natural gas companies. Uranium is a hot topic. As of about 20 months ago. And we suddenly have over a hundred uranium companies (or companies that claim to be in uranium business). You don’t know them? Apparently, you don’t have to, for them to survive and flourish. We are not making it up, we refer you to the man who made a fortune in uranium stocks and is presently Senior Editor of Casey Energy Speculator, Phil O'Neall.
Oil is all over the headlines. Oil is the headline of the year. So far, anyway, because from the looks of it gold may steal the limelight before year end. Are we running out of oil? I believe we are, but that is not the reason why oil is making headlines. It’s the PRICE of oil we’re most concerned about. (We have enough oil to last us another few decades so why worry about peak oil now?) Oil price is largely the reason uranium is back in fashion and incidentally, uranium price has more than quadrupled since the bottom at $7 and change. So did the oil price.
Why is gold in the news the last few weeks? Because gold price just made a 17-year high. It crossed the $470 mark recently. Where is that relative to the bottom? Not even a double. But gold, oil, uranium are highly political resources. That’s why the media tends to focus on them. What else is in the news? Natural gas. What about lead, zinc, copper, timber, iron-ore, nickel, etc? Are they not worthy of a discussion? Jim Rogers thinks they are. But I would like to zero in on another ignored metal – silver.
David Morgan calls silver "the most important metal" and merits of it have been discussed before and will be again. So why is it ignored by the majority of investors? Because SILVER IS CHEAP! Cheap as in undervalued. But wait a minute, isn’t that what investors are supposedly looking for? Didn’t the best investor of all times, Warren Buffett, get where he is now due to his value investing approach? Doesn’t Buffett own 129 million ounces of silver? Then why investors shun silver?
Silver is bulky, I hear. Hmm. Buffett didn’t think so. He didn’t buy gold, he bought silver. Why is it bulky for the average Joe? Because SILVER IS CHEAP!! Because you can still buy quite a bit of silver for your investment dollar. I will bet my rent money that at $50/oz silver won’t be bulky at all, and those who didn’t want to hear about it at $7 and $8 will be lining up to get some, because at $50 they will be carrying home a substantially lighter load.
Doug Casey says, silver gets no respect, because for the most part silver is mined as a by-product of copper, lead, zinc and gold therefore it is mined regardless of silver price. However, that may be changing before your eyes. Silver Wheaton (AMEX: SLW) has pioneered the concept of unlocking the value of silver by-product by buying silver production from mines that earn their bread in other metal. Coeur D’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE) has followed suit with its recent deal in Australia. Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI) and Vista Gold (AMEX: VGZ) have similar arrangements on some of their projects. The latter two had them even before Silver Wheaton, but due to the fact that their properties are not yet producing few investors paid attention. The attitude was - so long as it is in the ground, doesn’t matter who holds the rights to which metal. We know of more companies looking into similar opportunities.
Silver companies can’t make money mining it, comes another argument. That is mostly true, but not entirely. We know at least two silver mining companies that are profitable on operating basis today and two more that are getting close to profitability at current prices. But isn’t it the function of free markets to regulate asset prices? What happens when companies cannot make money selling their product (we have to speak in these terms to make our point)? They go out of business, the price of their product goes up and the higher it goes, the more companies get back in the business until the market finds balance between supply and demand. The above development of silver by-product being bought and sold as an asset of its own will do wonders for the industry.
The total amount of money that bought Silver Wheaton’s production as it stands today is about US$285 MM (the entire story was thoroughly discussed here). At $7.5 silver and annual production of 10 MM oz with cost fixed at $4 (it’s $3.90 but we round it up for convenience) we arrive at $35 MM in free annual cashflow. That means the investment should pay for itself free and clear within 8 years counting from the beginning of 2005. Everything beyond that is pure profit. How do you like ‘m damn apples? Of course, the company could do other things that may or may not be as profitable, but the current setup is very attractive to say the least. But the punch line is the silver price which I expect to be much much higher in the coming years.
Silver is not money, they tell me, it’s a commodity. Duh! Is that supposed to be bad for silver? Are we not in a commodities bull market? Oil is a commodity and you don’t see the oil price suffer from it. "Oil is different, it’s a source of energy" - argue skeptics. What do you have to say about molybdenum, rhodium, copper, lead? Those are not energy sources but have been showing some pretty returns in the last several years. If silver is a commodity, which of course it is (we’ll get to monetary aspect shortly), it will play catch up to the rest of the group. Last time I checked we were in a commodities bull market and those tend to last for 15-20 years. If, for arguments sake, we agree that it started around the year 2000, we still have about a decade or more of it ahead of us.
I want to get back to silver as money. Let’s see what we have here. English is my second language, but wasn’t the colloquialism "pay in silver" widely used till about 100 years ago? Don’t we have silver coins in most countries around the world? Doesn’t the US Constitution state that gold and silver are only viable money? Doesn’t the word "silver" mean "money" in some 50 of the world’s languages? And lastly, don’t the financial markets treat silver as money? According to CPM Group gold and silver are regarded as money by the financial markets because the open interest in these two metals is comparable to same in Foreign Exchange markets, i.e. currencies. No other commodity comes even close to gold and silver in that respect. That’s not me saying it. That is the world financial system in action.
I will take a chance here and tell a joke. Hopefully readers will look past its politically incorrect bias and focus on the point it makes.
A spokeswoman for a feminist group announces the results of a comprehensive study on gender induced properties of logic and says the following: "We ought to admit that men’s logic is superior to that of women, but at the same time, women’s logic is no worse by any means".
Let’s sum up. Gold is money. Silver tracks gold, trades like it, but it’s not money. Some logic there. You catch my drift.
A few words about currencies. Currency is NOT money. Money is a store of wealth and buying power. Currency is merely a medium of exchange. It’s the stuff you carry around to pay for coffee. The two are confused because historically gold and silver were used as both. What are the chances of silver returning as currency? It’s not impossible.
Hugo Salinas Price has the all 31 Governors of Mexican states supporting a silver based currency. Bernard von NotHaus of www.libertydollar.org was able to convince thousands of people to use it and I have to agree with Bernard on this one – government controls the currency, not the money. Money is a universal store of value and wealth, and does not require sanctioning.
You have to laugh at gold bugs that shun silver. They know all the reasons why gold will go up, but they can’t muster a couple for silver. "This time it’s different", isn’t it? Is it different for silver? Which part is different? As of this writing gold/silver ratio stands at 62. I am betting that before this bull market is over you’ll see that number slashed at least in half. My message to gold bugs is - if you like gold, buy silver.
October 08 , 2005
By Sean Rakhimov
Editor, www.SilverStrategies.com
L'iceberg dei derivati... sta cominciando a mostrare la sua ombra... ;)
Scandal rocks New York brokerage firm
· Refco chief executive owed company $430m
· Accounts cannot be relied upon for accuracy
The esoteric world of derivatives was rocked by scandal yesterday when leading futures brokerage Refco, which has substantial operations in London and New York, said it had discovered that chief executive Phillip Bennett owed the company $430m (£250m) and that none of its accounts dating back to 2002 could be relied upon for their accuracy.
The disclosure is likely to increase calls for tighter controls of the high risk and often arcane financial instruments that have seen phenomenal growth over recent years in the City and on Wall Street.
Article continues
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Refco is one of the world's largest and most powerful commodities dealers, but its interests also spread across most financial assets, such as currencies and bonds. It specialises in derivative brokerage services. Last year it was the biggest trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest derivatives exchange in the United States.
In an opaque statement, Refco said that a company controlled by Mr Bennett had assumed "certain historical obligations" owed by third parties to Refco that "may have been uncollectable". He did so without telling the Refco board.
Analysts said that one interpretation could be that Mr Bennett had attempted to hide the bad debts. The firm said the amount did appear as a receivable on prior financial statements and on the balance sheet, but it as not shown as a related party transaction. The company warned that its financial statements for the past four years could no longer be relied upon. Mr Bennett, who has now repaid the money to the firm, has been put on leave pending further investigation.
Shares in Refco fell by a third yesterday as investors vented their anger. The company was floated in the US as recently as August, when the firm raised $583m. Part of that ire and possibly legal action is likely to be directed at the banks Credit Suisse First Boston, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, which led the share sale, and the accounting firm Grant Thornton, which audited Refco's books. A year before the IPO, the private equity firm Thomas H Lee led an investor group that ploughed $507m of equity into Refco for a 57% stake.
The firm's chief operating officer, William Sexton, who had previously been planning to leave the company, said he would now remain with the firm as chief executive. "I am staying at Refco because I believe in our employees, customers and franchise," he said. Another executive, Santo Maggio, chief executive of Refco Securities and Refco Capital Markets, has taken a leave of absence.
The company tried to reassure clients and said that all of its customer funds on deposit are unaffected by the discovery. At the end of August, Refco said it had cash and cash equivalents of $649m.
Investigative lawyers and forensic accountants have been drafted in to investigate the books of the firm. Meanwhile, Refco has delayed the filing of its next quarterly financial results. A spokeswoman said the company doesn't know if a restatement will be required.
Refco has already had run-ins with American regulators this year, with the securities and exchange commission threatening action over alleged market manipulation in May. Last last month the company was the target of a law suit from a French investor, claiming that Refco had misled investors in its public filings and demanding compensation of £1.4bn.
What it is
Refco is a diversified financial services firm best known for its futures brokerage - dealing with contracts to buy or sell specific quantities of a commodity at a specified price in the future. It employs 2,400 people in 14 countries. Last year it was the biggest trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1589110,00.html
Ecco qualcosa in più sulla manipolazione del prezzo dell'Argento da parte del CRIMEX...
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=620900&folsession=9974f7f99e5944aabba9b6ec3e954 833
Chiude a 2,80 su debolezza dell'argento...
Ovviamente questi signori non vogliono l'ETF... ;)
SILVER EXCHANGE TRANSFER FUND (ETF)
Between 1966 and 1970, U.S. Treasury sales of silver were a major secondary source of supply. Because silver had been a U.S. monetary standard along with gold, the U.S. government held the world's largest source of secondary supply in an effort to meet a growing production/consumption deficit. In 1965, it appeared that in less than two years the Treasury would effectively lose control of the price of silver. If silver had been allowed to rise above $1.40 per ounce, the silver content of U.S. coins would have been worth more than their face value, causing them to disappear from circulation. Under the Coinage Act of 1965, Congress eliminated the use of silver in coins and authorized the mining of cupro-nickel substitutes and the sale of silver to the public. The right of holders of U.S. silver certificates to redeem them for silver was suspended in 1968. The following year, a federal ban on the melting of U.S. coins was lifted, freeing anywhere from 400 to 700 million ounces for secondary recovery.
In late 1970, the General Services Administration was authorized by Congress to release the national strategic stockpile of silver to the Treasury Department, primarily for coinage of new commemorative silver dollars (40 percent silver content). The same act provided for the auction of approximately 3 million old uncirculated silver dollars (90 percent silver). In 1973, the Cost of Living council freed commercial-grade silver from price ceilings imposed the year before to allow domestic silver to advance to current international price levels.
Silver has reacted erratically to world political and economic news in recent years. The New York spot settlement price for silver has ranged from a low of $3.92 in 1975 to a high of $48.70 in 1980.
In the early 80's, the U.S. government's strategic stockpile of silver was locked in by law at 139.5 Moz. Congress has since authorized legislation to dispose of these stockpiles. In late 2000 the U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center delivered its remaining stockpile of nearly 15 Moz to the U.S. Mint for coinage programs. Since 2001, the U.S. has had to purchase silver for its coinage programs from the open market. This has boosted silver consumption by 1% annually.
Background on ETF
An ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund, created under the Investment Company Act of 1940. They are index-based products, which hold a portfolio of securities that is intended to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the underlying benchmark index. In the case of a Silver ETF, the index would track the silver price and be backed by physically vaulted silver. Gold ETF's gained popularity in the recent commodity bull markets as investors were attracted to an alternate form of gold investment other than mining shares, options, futures and physical. Many are interested in gold from a 'buy and hold' perspective. Each unit that is bought on the gold ETF has resulted in physical gold metal being purchased on the open market and stored in a vault. In total, these gold ETF's have contributed to 250 tons of gold being purchased in the open market, approximately $3.4 billion dollars.
Impact of Silver ETF
Fortunately we do not have to look back very far to see the impact a significant amount of allocated silver would have on the market. It was 1998 when Warren Buffet purchased over 100 million ounces of physical silver and the spot price rallied over $3 dollars and one month lease rates soared over 30%.
Commodity markets such as Palladium have proven that consumers will search for alternative sources to substitute their need for metal if the market becomes too pricey or illiquid. As it is, silver can be an illiquid market because there are few central banks which own silver. Silver is inexpensive in terms of commodities, and its volatility is typically 2-3 times that of gold.
These are both reasons investors are drawn to the market. A silver ETF would only exaggerate silver's illiquidity given the sheer volume of physical silver needed to be shipped and stored. While a silver ETF might initially provide price benefits for producers, we believe it would disrupt the market in the short term and may harm the market in the long term.
SUA Position
The Silver Users Association opposes the creation of a silver ETF because of the concerns that doing so will require the holding of physical silver in allocated accounts, thus removing large amounts of silver from the market. By doing so, the ETF most likely would cause a shortage of silver in the marketplace. This removal of large quantities of physical silver could have a negative impact on silver-industry specific employment as well as the overall economy, both through job losses and inflation.
The Silver Users Associations supports the buying and selling of silver as an investment. There are already several ways to do so without creating a potentially harmful situation to industry. We don't endorse a silver ETF because of the potential liquidity problems it would create. The SUA urges the SEC to take these issues into consideration before it decides whether or not to issue a silver ETF.
http://www.silverusersassociation.org/news/wash_rpt_0509.shtml#6
Apertura in linea a 2,70 con gli altri miners... -3 / -4 %
Il dollaro forte rompe un pò... 1,1938...
Ma come si faaaaaaaaaaaa ? Con questo trade deficit ??? Manipolazione :yes:
Trade Deficit Hits Third Highest Level
Thursday October 13, 10:34 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Trade Deficit of $59.03B 3rd Highest Level in History; Import Prices See Biggest Rise in 15 Years
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's trade deficit rose 1.8 percent to $59.03 billion in August, the third highest in history, driven by higher oil prices.
Import prices climbed by 2.3 percent in September -- the biggest one-month rise in 15 years -- giving consumers new reasons to fear that inflation is rising and the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates.
The rise in import prices was noticeably greater than the 0.9 percent increase that economists had predicted.
The cost for foreign oil rose by 12.2 percent to an all-time high of $17.16 billion in August, up from $15.3 billion in July. The average per barrel price of imported crude oil also set a record at $52.65 in August with further increases forecast given the surge in oil prices since August.
Analysts predicted further bad news on the trade deficit in the months ahead, reflecting the surge in energy costs that occurred after Katrina and Rita shut down refineries and oil and natural gas platforms along the Gulf Coast. Crude oil prices briefly spiked above $70 per barrel right after Katrina hit.
Underscoring that point, the Labor Department said that the gain in the prices of imported goods was driven by a 7.3 percent surge in petroleum prices.
The August trade deficit of $59.03 billion was up from a revised imbalance of $57.96 billion in July.
U.S. exports in August rose by 1.7 percent to a record level of $108.18 billion. Imports were also at a record, rising by 1.8 percent to $167.21 billion.
America's deficit with China increased to $18.47 billion in August, up 4.6 percent from the July level. The deficit with Japan narrowed slightly to $6.59 billion in August, compared to $6.63 billion in July.
The U.S. trade deficit with Japan fell to $6.59 billion from $6.63 billion in July while the deficit with the 25-nation European Union increased to $11.29 billion and the deficit with Canada widened to $6.65 billion.
In other news, the government reported that the number of people who have lost their jobs because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita jumped to 438,000 last week, helping push the number of first-time jobless claims nationwide for the week to 389,000. The Labor Department reported that an additional 75,000 hurricane-related claims were filed last week out of the nationwide total.
Government analysts said that Katrina, which hit near New Orleans on Aug. 29, was still accounting for more layoffs than Rita, which came ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border on Sept. 24.
The rise of 75,000 in hurricane-related unemployment benefit claims was up slightly from 74,000 such claims two weeks ago, the first week that claims from Rita showed up. The highest week for claims attributed to the hurricanes was the week ending Sept. 17, when claims from Katrina totaled 108,000.
Analysts said it is likely that hurricane-related claims have peaked but they said it was likely that they will remain a significant portion of total jobless claims for several more weeks, reflecting the widespread destruction which wiped out thousands of businesses along the Gulf Coast.
The government reported last Friday that the nation's jobless rate was pushed to 5.1 percent in September from a four-year low of 4.9 percent in August. Business payrolls fell for the first time in two years, a decline that was also attributed to the hurricanes.
The 389,000 new claims for jobless benefits that were filed last week represented a drop of 2,000 from the 391,000 claims filed two weeks ago. Analysts have been encouraged that the level of jobless claims in the rest of the country has remained steady, indicating that the overall economy has been able to weather so far the shocks from the hurricane and the resulting surge in energy prices as Gulf Coast production facilities were shut down.
The weekly jobless claims report showed that the biggest increase for the week ending Oct. 1 occurred in Texas, a rise of 17,931 that was attributed to the hurricanes. The layoffs occurred in construction, public administration and manufacturing.
Louisiana had the second largest increase in layoffs, a total of 8,580, a rise that was also attributed to the hurricanes. The breakdown for individual states lags behind the national data by one week.
Non possono alzare i tassi... lo volete capire ?
Se no scoppia il bollone immobiliare....
Sagge parole... :yes:
The broad stock market has been falling since October 1st. As long as interest rates continue to rise, the bond market will drop. The Real Estate bubble has popped as evidenced by the housing market slowdown and lower prices in many areas. Money in the bank earns less interest than the rising costs of living. As more investors search for viable means of making money, where will they turn? We know the answer. Gold and Silver. As each day passes, more money throughout the world flows into the gold and silver markets. G & S prices may drop for a few days, but in the long run, G & S prices have no place to go but up. After all, there are no other alternatives. SS
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600811424&tid=ssri&sid=1600811424&mid=64034
Tutto il giorno tra 2,65 e 2,70...
Financial Crisis/Wall Street Cartel Scandal/Gold, Silver Readying to FLY!
None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free...Goethe
GO GATA!!!
Where do I begin? What we have here is nothing less than sensational/historic and bodes for something catastrophic for US financial markets and our economy. Those on Planet GATA are prepared for what is to come and can explain why. Planet Wall Street will be dumbfounded. Joe and Jane American will be outraged and is going to unleash a rage not seen in the US since the Vietnam War. The difference is this time it will be the middle class, not college kids, who will create the fury.
The news this morning was bullish for gold/silver and bearish for US interest rates and stock market:
08:30 Sept. Import Price Index 2.3% vs. consensus 1%
Prior revised to 1.2% from 1.3%.
* * * * *
08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 10/8 reported 389K vs. consensus 360K
Prior reading revised to 391K from 390K.
* * * * *
08:30 Aug Trade deficit reported $59B vs. consensus $59.5B
Prior revised to $58B from $57.9B. Dollar is slightly higher in initial reaction; euro/dollar $1.1979.
* * * * *
We have our US inflation numbers coming in higher than generally thought, while the employment situation is not so hot. Planet Wall Street won’t pay much attention to the jobless number, in light of the aftermath of the hurricanes. Tell that to the people out of work in the Gulf. It is still a drag on the economy.
Meanwhile, a trade deficit of $59 billion is just terrible. AND, this number was calculated before the recent sharp run-up in the dollar. We all have short memories. For years now veteran Café members have heard me mention how in 1998 (around there) Goldman Sachs predicted the US trade deficit would balloon from $12 billion to $19 billion and Planet Wall Street was horrified at even the thought of it. Now it’s "So what, everything is fine."
This news is not good for the dollar at all. So why is the dollar going up and up? My take has been, and remains, this is coordinated central bank intervention because we are in CRISIS mode in the US with the potential of a stock market debacle, one which would filter through to the economy. As mentioned in the Sprott report on the PPT, the Japanese announced they would intervene in the currency markets if there was a crisis, and this surely is one for the US. To stem market panic re the US, the central banks are bolstering the dollar to maintain confidence in the US debt and stock markets. Other countries are more than willing to go along in the short-term to bolster their own exports and economies, as well as to assist in trying to prevent a US meltdown.
The 10-year note hit 4.5% this morning BEFORE the number was released. Then, dropped a bit following the number to 4.47%, while the dollar kept its rocket-like ascent??? Most likely the Fed (Caribbean Pirates) at work. Yesterday, Bob Pisani of CNBC claimed that the stock traders were all eyeing the 4.5% number and that if it took it out, they would run from the stock hills. The reason:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NO/C5
A close above 4.5% could create a selling bloodbath.
In this regard The Gold Cartel is going all out to stop gold from moving higher on this gold friendly news, for if gold were to move up on the day it would make it nearly impossible to hold the 4.5% 10-year T note level. The cabal knows the technical condition of gold is weak per yesterday and they have the dollar soaring. It is their time to make their move to try and turn some more funds into sellers (so they can cover some of their shorts).
Gold just closed. A fabulous day for our camp. Yesterday I mentioned that gold could drop $6 to $10 and that ought to be it. There are just too many waiting and willing buyers out there. At today’s low, gold was down $6.10. For it to rally $3.50 off this level is a stunning defeat for The Gold Cartel. Yep, that ought to be it on the downside. The move up from here could be both stunning and dramatic. The bad guys are reeling behind the scenes.
There is no telling how high gold could go in a very short-term time frame. The bullion banking bums in the cabal have their hands full with the markets. Between rising rates and the Refco mess, there is a real shot we could see a couple of derivatives neutron bombs go off in the weeks to come. Once again, the bad guys are short thousands and thousands of tonnes of gold. They are trapped and cannot get out without sending the price up hundreds of dollars per ounce. HUNDREDS?
Should the US financial markets go into convulsions, some of these shorts will be FORCED OUT, by credit committees. This could get very wild, VERY fast.
When Katrina hit, The Gold Cartel orchestrated a gold take down of $6. 50,000 specs dumped their longs. Gold then rallied $40 per ounce. We fell $6 today, the difference being with so much new macro fund buying, the crooks couldn’t hold the price down. The price fixers are in the DEEPEST of trouble.
The gold open interest fell 3907 contracts to 366,937, as some funds and an ETF pitched.
Silver held up well all day today and did not plunge like it has so many times over the years.
The silver open interest rose 1583 contracts to 136,018.
Before silver made its recent 50 cent advance, MIDAS mentioned to The Café my smeller told me something was going on which was very positive for silver. So far so good.
Late last week our STALKER source talked of Saudi buying, saying they wanted physical not paper and were going to store the silver in Saudi Arabia, NOT London. Today, this source said they had not bought the physical yet. This is very valuable news and I believe it to be very explosive. Why:
The Saudis are smart and playing the market. They have told the London players they do not want paper. However, I believe that is just what they have been doing. BUYING FUTURES, which is why the silver open interest keeps going up. It is also why silver is trading differently than it used to.
The smartest traders in the world will go into the futures market first to price their coming physical market purchases. This way the pros and the market have yet to see the soaring demand about to goose the market. Once the Saudis have worked out their storage for silver, they will load up on cash silver. The tiny silver market will soar. As they are nearing the end of what they want to secure, they will unload the futures in lieu of their physical supply.
This should be exciting to watch, if the silver situation is as I see it.
LATE MARKET DEVELOPMENT:
My rant earlier was how ridiculous the dollar move up was. Made no sense except citing coordinated central bank intervention. Seems that intervention has run its course. The dollar has sunk like a stone in water very late in the trading day.
The December dollar closed at 89.61, up .16, after making a 90.28 high. The spot euro, still trading after the dollar trading closed, rose to 120.31, after making a 119.14 low. Both the yen and pound closed modestly higher after taking early drubbings.
Should the central bank intervention fail, and the dollar collapse like it ought, good grief! The Gold Cartel, PPT, Fed, Bush Administration, and the general investing public will be in even worse trouble than mentioned above.
My guess is we have seen the lows in gold and silver. The risk/reward ratio from here on in is fabulous. Literally dollars on the downside and, in the case of gold, hundreds of dollars on the upside. Investment in gold will soon begin to go off the charts.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?pid=4939
Murray N. Rothbard: meglio l'oro che le monete inflazionate
di Carlo Lottieri
È un libro quanto mai originale, controcorrente e fuori dagli schemi questo che le edizioni Leonardo Facco hanno di recente mandato in libreria, traducendo per i lettori italiani What Has Government Done to Our Money?, uno degli scritti più “corrosivi” del padre della teoria libertaria, Murray N. Rothbard.
Opera di un giovane economista allora poco conosciuto e meno che quarantenne, questo volume del 1963 (che in italiano porta il titolo Lo Stato falsario. Ecco cosa i governi hanno fatto ai nostri soldi, in vendita a 10 euro e richiedibile a leofacco@tin.it) rappresenta una delle denuncie più spietate e teoricamente rigorose che mai siano stato indirizzate verso le monete di Stato e, in particolare, verso i processi inflazionistici che hanno segnato il ventesimo secolo.
L’età dei totalitarismi e degli stermini di massa, in effetti, è stata anche l’età in cui le monete si sono dissolte come neve al sole; ed è ben nota la situazione in cui versava ad esempio Germania degli anni ‘20, quando nei negozi la cartamoneta veniva talora perfino “pesata” (ignorando le cifre riportate sulle banconote). E sebbene gli storici siano concordi nel sottolineare gli stretti rapporti tra l’iperinflazione di Weimar e l’avvento del regime nazista, le migliori analisi sul carattere fraudolento del monopolio statale sulla moneta continuano ad essere trascurate: un po’ per ignoranza, un po’ per complicità.
Come molti altri economisti liberali, Rothbard avversa in primo luogo l’inflazione. Ma ai suoi occhi il venir meno della capacità d’acquisto è soprattutto conseguenza del cosiddetto corso forzoso: ossia, dell’obbligo di utilizzare le monete di Stato, un tempo recanti il volto del sovrano e ancora oggi incaricate di simboleggiare le istituzioni pubbliche. La moneta statale, infatti, è un bene del tutto “artificiale”: nient’altro che carta emessa dalla Banca centrale, prodotta in grande quantità ogni volta che il ceto pubblico ha bisogno di soldi per pagare i dipendenti pubblici, finanziare le guerre o comprare le clientele elettorali.
Mentre i monetaristi alla Milton Friedman s’illudono che sia possibile porre “limiti costituzionali” alla produzione di moneta e seguitano a ritenere che esista e sia anche conoscibile una crescita ottimale della moneta circolante, Rothbard è assai più radicale e rivendica il diritto di combattere alla radice il monopolio della classe politica sulla moneta.
Per giunta, egli ricorda a più riprese come l’inflazione sia una forma (subdola, mascherata, spesso non percepibile) d’imposizione fiscale. Così, se la tassazione irrita i sudditi e il ricorso al debito rinvia nel tempo le difficoltà (ma non le risolve), è chiaro che i governanti sono costantemente indotti a togliere ricchezza ai loro sudditi ricorrendo all’inflazione, che trasferisce risorse dai vecchi ai nuovi possessori di monete. Essa svuota di contenuto le banconote già in uso, progressivamente “vampirizzate” dalla moneta di più recente immissione.
Consapevole di ciò, Rothbard propone il ritorno a valute di mercato, sottratte al controllo esclusivo dei soggetti pubblici. La proposta, che oggi può apparire provocatoria, in realtà non suggerisce altro che la rinascita di pratiche un tempo assai usuali. Le cose sono andate in tal modo, d’altra parte, per periodi anche molto lunghi della storia occidentale, quando la concorrenza dei conii conduceva tutti i banchieri a restare ancorati alla stessa medesima moneta: l’oro.
La proposta di “tornare all’oro” è al cuore del volume di Rothbard, che vede nel metallo prezioso non soltanto una valuta per sua natura “internazionale”, ma soprattutto una moneta sottratta all’arbitrio dei politici e dei banchieri centrali. In effetti, quando le sterline e i dollari mantevano un rapporto di cambio fisso con l’oro, per poter emettere nuove banconote era necessario depositare una corrispettiva quantità di metallo prezioso. A quel tempo, in effetti, le monete erano “pagibili al portatore”, ovvero in ogni momento tramutabili in metallo prezioso.
Per questo motivo ancora durante l’Ottocento le società d’Europa e del Nord America disponevano di monete piuttosto solide. Ma il Novecento è stato segnato, anche negli Stati Uniti, dalla volontà delle classi politiche di “affrancare” la moneta da ogni riferimento all’oro. Significativo, in tal senso, il fatto che nel 1933 Franklin Delano Roosevelt abbia deciso che possedere oro era divenuto un crimine e, soprattutto, che fosse proibito usare l’oro come mezzo di pagamento. Sganciato il dollaro dal metallo prezioso (alungo, il rapporto era stato di 20 dollari per un’oncia), il governo americano innescò una fortissima inflazione, che trasferì risorse dai creditori ai debitori e rese persistente quella Grande Depressione da cui l’America uscirà veramente solo alla fine degli anni Quaranta.
In questo senso è assai significativo, come rileva Piero Vernaglione nell’introduzione al volume, che Rothbard contesti il sistema monetario attuale – quella della Fed, della Bce, e via dicendo – tanto con argomenti economici che con argomenti etici.
In pagine di grande efficace, egli sottolinea che la rinascita della società occidentale esige “un sistema economico costruito solidamente sul diritto inviolabile alla proprietà privata, sul diritto di ogni persona a disporre di ciò che guadagna ed a scambiare i prodotti del suo lavoro. E per compiere questa impresa dobbiamo ancora una volta avere denaro che sia prodotto sul mercato, che sia d’oro e non di carta, basato su di un’unità monetaria che corrisponda ad un certo peso d’oro invece che al semplice nome di una banconota prodotta a tiratura illimitata dal governo. Dobbiamo avere investimenti determinati dai risparmi volontari raccolti sul mercato e non da una moneta contraffatta e dal credito generato da un sistema bancario fraudolento e protetto da privilegi statali”.
Per questa ragione lo studioso americano invita ad “abolire la banca centrale ed imporre ai singoli istituti bancari di rispettare i loro impegni ogni volta che qualche cliente lo pretende. Il denaro e il sistema bancario sono stati fatti apparire processi arcani e misteriosi che devono essere guidati e gestiti da una aristocrazia tecnocratica. Non si tratta di nulla di tutto questo”.
Da fautore dell’economia di mercato, Rothbard considera che l’inflazione sia l’effetto diretto di un ordine giuridico illiberale. Sottratte alla competizione, le monete hanno smesso di svolgere in maniera efficace ed onesta la loro funzione. E come in ogni monopolio la conseguenza è il moltiplicarsi di comportamenti parassitari e fraudolenti.
La riflessione economica scivola subito, allora, nell’invettiva morale. Il sistema valutario contemporaneo lede la libertà d’iniziativa dei singoli e costringe a fare ricorso a monete controllate coercitivamente da pochi soggetti, che quasi sempre finiscono per abusare del loro potere e, in particolare, fanno lievitare la massa monetaria. Una parte significativa del libro, così, è dedicata a mostrare le aberrazioni del sistema detto “a riserva frazionaria”, nel quale viviamo ormai da molti decenni senza neppure avere consapevolezza di ciò che esso comporta e dei guai che da tale sistema quasi fatalmente derivano.
Contro le tesi di Rothbard viene talora evocata la cosiddetta “legge di Gresham”, in virtù della quale la moneta cattiva scaccerebbe la moneta buona, con il risultato che in un mercato libero di valute indipendenti la moneta inflazionata prevarrebbe su quella buona. Tale legge è spesso tirata in ballo contro ogni ipotesi di libertà valutaria e concorrenza tra monete da quanti ritengono che in un’economia libera vi sarebbe il trionfo delle monete malgestite su quelle affidate ad amministratori saggi. Ma ciò è assai controintuitivo, come lo sarebbe sostenere che in un libero mercato automobilistico i consumatori tenderebbero ad acquistare vetture costose e di pessima qualità…
Evocare la legge di Gresham, infatti, significa conoscere la storia solo a metà. Nell’Inghilterra del sedicesimo secolo, infatti, la circolazione delle monete auree era caratterizzata dal fatto che quelle che passavano di mano in mano erano le più leggere (poiché limate da furbastri e truffatori), mentre tutti tesaurizzavano le monete più pesanti. Ma questo non fu per nulla la conseguenza della libertà valutaria, ma al contrario l’effetto dell’obbligo di accettare come legali anche quelle monete che, sebbene “taroccate” (di minor peso), recavano l’effige del sovrano. Già allora, insomma, erano le logiche stataliste che avevano prodotto le disfunzioni del sistema monetario.
Le monete, come ogni altro bene, devono essere quindi proposte e accettate entro un quadro pluralistico e concorrenziale. In questo senso, Rothbard è assai eloquente nel mostrare l’urgenza di chiudere le bance centrali e affidare alla più libera competizione il futuro dei nostri soldi. Poiché, come i recenti fatti di cronaca stanno a dimostrare, la moneta è un qualcosa di troppo serio per essere lasciato nelle mani di politici e burocrati di Stato.
L'Indipendente, 9 ottobre 2005.
http://www.brunoleoni.it/nextpage.aspx?codice=0000000913
The Dollar's Days Are Numbered, Gold's Day Is Due
By Jon A. Nones
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Paul van Eeden, analyst and newsletter editor, examines the future of the gold market by taking a closer look at the Fed’s interest rate hikes, inflation and the U.S. economy in an exclusive interview with Resource Investor. Is it too early to predict the impending demise of the dollar?
RESOURCE INVESTOR: How much will the Fed’s interest rate hike campaign really affect the price of gold?
PAUL VAN EEDEN: I don't think the Fed’s activity will directly result in much of a change in the gold price. The more important question is why is the Fed hiking short-term interest rates? They say it is to fend off inflation, but when I read the reports, it sounds like they are confusing higher prices with inflation.
Inflation occurs when the money supply increases. Higher prices generally result as a consequence of inflation; however, higher prices can also occur due to other factors, such as supply disruptions. If oil and gasoline prices rise because of supply constrictions, it is not the same is inflation driven price increases.
RESOURCE INVESTOR: With so much money being generated for Katrina, do you think the interest hikes will even help curb inflation at this point? What will this mean for gold?
PAUL VAN EEDEN: I am becoming more and more convinced that the Fed's interest rate policy is an attempt to pre-empt a decline in the U.S. dollar. As such, I see the interest rate increases as merely postponing - but telegraphing - the inevitable: a further decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate that will go hand-in-hand with an increase in the U.S. dollar-gold price.
RESOURCE INVESTOR: But both the strength in the dollar and the gold price have been rising of late. Do you think the inverse relationship between the two is fading?
PAUL VAN EEDEN: Gold bulls have gleefully pointed out that the increase in the gold price during the past week has occurred in conjunction with a stronger U.S. dollar and therefore that the gold price has risen against many currencies lately. I am, however, not convinced that it is a sustainable trend. Not that I would mind it if were; higher gold prices are wonderful for my portfolio.
But I cannot help but wonder if the gold market has become a proxy for anticipating future movements in the U.S. dollar. Could it be that the increase in the gold price is foretelling of a future decline in the dollar? Certainly, if I had to hedge against a decline in the U.S. dollar I would invest in gold. So I am not convinced that the gold price has permanently been disconnected from the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Instead I think the relationship is just becoming better understood and more widely accepted, to the point where the gold price is now perhaps a leading indicator for the dollar.
RESOURCE INVESTOR: With demand in China and India growing at a constant rate, how much do you think this will affect the price of gold in the long run?
PAUL VAN EEDEN: I don't think the gold price responds to changes in physical demand from India and China. None of my own calculations show this to be the case and I have not seen any credible evidence that the gold price is sensitive to jewelry demand.
My own belief is that gold is money and it acts as money. Therefore the gold price should be seen in the context of other money, which is why I am so focused on exchange rates and fiat money inflation. And when I say inflation, I mean it in the correct sense of the word: an increase in money supply.
Over time the gold price in any currency is merely a function of the different inflation rates of gold and the currency in question. The gradual increase in the gold price as a result of higher inflation rates of fiat currencies vis-a-vis gold inflation is, however, overprinted by volatility stemming from fluctuating exchange rates. It is the interplay of these two influences on the gold price that are (in my opinion) important; the rest is just additional noise that tends to confuse investors and obfuscate the relationship between gold and other currencies.
RESOURCE INVESTOR: Do you think gold is overbought? Is a big correction looming?
PAUL VAN EEDEN: It is difficult for me to say that gold is overbought because I believe that the gold price in U.S. dollar will exceed $700 or $800 an ounce in the not-to-distant future. However, that increase in the gold price will be largely due to a decline in the U.S. dollar exchange rate. So when we see the gold price rise against the U.S. dollar while the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, there is definitely more risk of a correction than otherwise. On the other hand, if the gold price has become a way to play the dollar, as I mentioned earlier, then it is entirely possible that the gold price will remain ahead of the dollar's exchange rate curve.
RESOURCE INVESTOR: So many analysts are predicting gold at $500 by Christmas. What are your predictions for the future?
PAUL VAN EEDEN: While I have no qualms predicting a gold price of $700 or $800 an ounce a few years out I don't like to make short-term predictions. Who knows what the gold price will be on Christmas day? Frankly, I don't really care what it is by year-end. If I think that gold is going to $700 an ounce in a few years I really couldn't care less what it is next week, next month, or three months from now. Predicting long-term trends and positioning yourself accordingly is much easier than predicting short-term volatility although the former requires more patience.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13091
Buona giornata oggi per SRLM.Pk....
Silver in controtendenza al Gold ieri... ottimo segno per il Silver ;)
SUA: BLOCK SILVER PRICE EXPLOSION
Friday, October 14, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com
The Silver Users Association (SUA) is urging the Securities and Exchange Corporation (SEC) stop Barclays from creating a silver backed Exchange Traded Fund, according to Reuters. In a desperate move to block the ETF, the association made a plea to the SEC that argued that the economy could suffer if silver prices spike.
Barclays filed a registration to create the first silver ETF, however it is still pending regulatory approval. The Silver ETF would be similar to the popular gold ETFs, which are responsible for purchasing about 250 tons of gold worth $3.4 billion. The trust would take delivery of millions of ounces of silver bullion and store it in England. However, some speculators believe that there isn’t enough silver stored above ground to fulfill investment demand for a silver ETF. If the ETF is blocked for this reason, it could be seen as a bullish confirmation for investors.
The SUA was created in 1947 to lobby for companies that purchase and consume silver. Admitting that supplies are tight, the SUA fears that taking silver from exchange warehouses could be enough to set off a shortage. “We don't endorse a silver ETF because of the potential liquidity problems it would create,” the SAU wrote.
The admission by the SUA is astonishing given that all the major players in the silver industry have maintained for a number of years that the silver is plentiful and that the analyses of silver bulls as regards supply were wrong. In admitting that supplies are tight, not only does the SUA vindicate a long-standing argument of the silver bulls it also comes perilously close to an admission that the market has indeed been controlled by those forces which have wanted low, steady prices. By turning to the SEC, the SUA is admitting that the status quo - manipulated as it apparently is - should be continued by any means possible. Unfortunately, a manipulated price is, by defintion, a price that must rise somehow, someday. Perhaps, say the silver bulls, that day is now.
Si lamentano che 130 milioni di once uscirebbero dal mercato... quando di short ve ne sono ben... 588 milioni ???
In pratica ammettono che l'argento a disposizione sta finendo... ;)
bartolumeo
15-10-05, 18:33
Silver in controtendenza al Gold ieri... ottimo segno per il Silver ;)
Ho notato che fino ad un paio d'ore dalla chiusura delle contrattazioni il silver scendeva insieme all'oro. Solo a quel punto ha cambiato bruscamente tendenza.
Secondo te questo comportamento è collegabile a qualche notizia specifica?
Leggendo le "allucinanti" dichiarazioni del SUA verrebbe da pensare che per il silver certi target stanno diventando sempre meno fantascientifici :eek: :eek: :eek:
Fai conto che il rapporto naturale prezzo oro / prezzo argento dovrebbe essere di 10..... o addirittura meno vista la sua attuale scarsità sopra terra.... i 50 US$ non sono fantascienza....
A quel livello SRLM potrebbe quotare 100-200 volte il prezzo attuale...
Beh il SUA ha dato del suo... effettivamente dal suo punto di vista queste esternazioni sono state un autogol clamoroso...
Ma la verità non si può nascondere a lungo... ed a questo punto un prezzo più alto del Silver è essenziale per stimolare nuovi progetti estrattivi...
OK!
Vediamo un pò se il Silver la prossima settimana prosegue nel suo ottimo trend...
bartolumeo
19-10-05, 14:45
Richard Daughty
...the angriest guy in economics
The Mogambo Guru
Archives
Oct 19, 2005
- The big news, I guess, is that required bank reserves dropped to $42.2 billion, even as bank deposits climbed and new loans/leases dropped. Of course, the Treasury printing up $3.8 billion in actual cash last week was pretty exciting, too. This amount of cash comes to about $27 for everybody in America who has a job. And though it is obviously being used to pay off Iraqis and Halliburton and all kinds of people who would not take a check, it still adds to the world supply of dollars, and after just a couple of transactions will imbed itself in the world economy, ballooning the money supply a little bit more, and the dollar will get just that little bit much weaker.
Of course, it was not just the bankers and the Treasury acting like slimy little toads, as we can usually count on foreigners who have trade surpluses to keep buying our debt, and the other ******c central banks of the world to keep buying our debt, too. Sure enough, they sank another $3.3 billion into that particular depreciating asset in the last week. What dorks! Imagine going home and explaining to your wife that, thanks to your supreme incompetence, you have lost a LOT of money in nominal terms, and when you adjust those losses for the loss of buying power of the dollar (inflation), then the real losses become so big, so large, so overwhelmingly huge that we are wiped out, and we have to either sell her car or one of the kids, and you know which one I'd pick.
But it is the breadth of the NYSE (cumulative advancing issues less declining issues) versus price which is interesting, as the former spent most of the year rising, and is now falling, while price ain't done squat, and is actually down, too. Hahaha! The dark and deserted hallways of the Mogambo Mansion echo with the eerie Mogambo laugh of contempt (EMLOC) at those who kept buying stocks, kept buying stocks, kept buying stocks in the face of zero gains! And now they are actually down on the year, too! Hahahaha!
- The new bankruptcy laws took effect Oct 17, and so now if you need to declare bankruptcy, then you first have to pay for "credit counseling." Why? So that there will be a lot of people being put to work as credit counselors, doofus! Perhaps this is the fabled "re-education" that everyone, including the current chairman of the loathsome Federal Reserve, thinks is the answer to everything. American jobs being sent overseas? "Retrain the workers!" they all say. But they never answer the question "Retrain them to do what?" Now you know!
And if the housing boom is actually bursting at last, as is indicated by lots of anecdotal evidence and some odd statistical facts, then all those brokers and dealers and banks and intermediaries of every stripe and kind are going to need something to do with their considerable time, too! See how it all fits together? Hahahaha!
- The most interesting thing was that on the Today.Reuters.com site was when we read "A U.S. silver industry nonprofit group opposes the creation of an exchange-traded fund backed by the precious metal amid concerns such an investment product could make silver too expensive or illiquid in the world market." Now, in case this is the first you have heard of an exchange-trade fund (ETF), Reuters helpfully elucidates thusly; "Commodity ETFs are designed to track the price of a specific product or basket of goods, and in the case of silver, one likely would be backed by physically stored metal." In short, some guys start a fund, buy up a lot of silver, and if you want to own silver, you can buy it by buying shares of the fund like an ordinary stock. Easy!
I thought to myself that my eyes were deceiving me, or I had had a stroke or something, because my Sensitive Mogambo Senses (SMS) were tingling like when I hear that something is in danger (be still, my beating heart!) of going higher in price, or what the SUA calls "too expensive or illiquid", because, like most greedy people who want to effortlessly make large amounts of money without actually working, I would like to "Get in on some of that action" (known in the investing biz as GIOSOTA), every time I hear about something getting "too expensive or illiquid."
So I am sitting here with this glazed look in my eyes as the article goes on to report that "The silver Users Association is especially concerned that a new ETF might threaten jobs in the silver industry, as it would require large amounts of metal to be held in vaults and out of reach of the marketplace, a spokesman said on Wednesday." I raised my hand and said "Excuse me, but I am The Mogambo, cub reporter for the Interplanetary Daily News Gazette, and my question is 'Huh?' "
To make sure I got the point, they then trotted out a guy named Paul Miller, representing, so he said, the SUA. Well, he looked me right in the eye, and for a long while we just stared at each other, neither of us blinking. Then, just as I was about to fall to my knees and cry "Uncle!" he abruptly caved in and said "The concern we have is about jobs. That concerns our members greatly." For some reason, this tickled the hell out of me, as it seemed like such an odd thing to say. I figured "Yeah! Their own! Hahahaha!"
Composing myself and trying to show a little dignity for a change, I say "Let me get this straight: silver in an ETF would take silver out of the marketplace and put it in vaults someplace dark and spooky, probably full of vampires and communists or something, whereas the vaults and warehouses that already contain the silver are bright and shiny, and do NOT have any vampires or communists. Is that it? And so the price would go up higher, but still within its historical range, probably somewhere between $30 and $500 per ounce, which is a LOT more accurate as to the true value of silver in the big freaking scheme of things (BFSOT) than its current low, low, low inflation-adjusted price, especially considering the big supply-demand disparity and complete elimination of global stockpiles. So, am I hearing you right, you jerks?"
At these words, the audience begins to become nervous and agitated, as they see that The Mogambo getting worked up, and that has NEVER worked out well if you believe what you read in the newspapers. They cringe in their seats as I, with an increasing fury, continue with a sneering tone of contempt in my voice. "But the SUA thinks that when demand swamps supply, and when the price of this scarce, expensive commodity soars in response, that employment in the silver industry will FALL? Hahahaha!"
I can see their faces contorted in fear as my incessant bellowing reaches a thundering crescendo, "Hell, the miners will be putting on double shifts to mine more silver when the price gets that high! The beleaguered debtor out here will pawn the family silver and get a little breathing room so that he can do a little spending! silver will be speeding around and around the economy! In short, there will be jobs, jobs and more jobs, all over the damned place as a result of the silver ETF, you big stupid morons!" In a blind rage, I leap to ascend to the stage with the idea to grab those SUA guys and slap the hell of him until he stops spouting such gibberish. But they see me coming and take it on the lam out the back door, leaving me alone on the stage. Now I am even MORE mad! Grrrr!
The audience is hushed, frozen in place, waiting to see what happens next. Rising to the theatrical occasion, I drop to one knee, raise my arm towards the heavens, and with a voice revealing a breaking heart, cry "But are there are any limitations as to how much silver a citizen, a simple person like you or me, can buy? No! Is it written that the noble citizen must contain his lust for silver? No! Is there a law that dictates the legal size of my silver holdings? No!" Rising to my feet, I continue breathlessly, "It is therefore perfectly legal for people, individually or collectively, to go out and buy all the silver they want, including the piddly 130 million ounces of silver that this new ETF is supposed to be proposing buying, and you can take the silver home and melt it down and create cute little statues of The Mogambo and put them around the edge of your desk at work if you want to! And who would NOT want to do that?"
But the truth is, I am pretty sure, that the SUA wants to make a silver ETF illegal just because it is too convenient, as it is a Law of the Universe or something that everything that I do has to be the hard way, and nothing is ever easy for the poor old Mogambo. And buying shares of a silver ETF by making a lousy phone call is obviously a LOT easier than waiting for my wife to start talking on the phone and then sneaking around while she is distracted, looking in her purse for some money with which to buy silver, then getting in the car and going out and buy the damned silver, and then, maybe first stopping off for a chili dog and a root beer on the way, take it to the bank to put it into the safe deposit box, all of which is, like I said, a real big hassle.
For another thing, that's how you invest in commodities, you SUA idiots! You buy the commodity, in this case silver, and you store it somewhere, hoping for a higher price in the future, or, if the price drops, making plans to legally harass The Mogambo and his stupid idea to buy silver, because it is all his fault. Either way, you gotta buy it and put it in a safe place, and that is why it is called "storing"! And you don't bring the commodity out and sell it until the price gets so high that the profit is irresistible. When will that happen? It will happen after a period of time where all you do, all day long, is keep multiplying in your stupid little calculator, over and over, how much silver trades for right now in the open market by the number of ounces you have stored down in the basement and that vulnerable safety deposit box at the bank (which you never trusted in the first place, and which is the same snotty little bank that has some sort of "policy" against letting people booby-trap a safe deposit box, even though I am the one paying to rent the damned thing! And don't bother bringing up all those Second Amendment issues, as I have been down that road with them many, many times to no avail).
But this is not about how the Constitution gets no respect, but about all the silver you have, and how it has risen so much in price, and all you can think about is all the fun you can have with all that money, and all the fun things you can buy, lease or rent with all that money, and all the fun places you can go with all that damned money, and all the fun, beautiful people you could hang around with if you had all that much money, instead of being stuck here with your hateful little circle of angry family and neighbors who plot and gang up against you because they are spiteful, horrible little people who want to "get even."
Then, one day, without thinking about it, you involuntarily jump to your feet and sell some silver! And then you have a lot of money, and then you remember that you have to pay income taxes on the gain, and that makes you angry as hell, and you swear that the NEXT time you vote you will show up sober at the polling booth and manage to finally throw these tax-happy moron politicians out on the fat butts. Anyway, this is not about voting, but about how THIS is when you know it is time to sell some silver.
But getting away from this SUA thing for a moment, if you want another reason to sell your own grandmother to get money to buy silver, and lots of it, then listen to what David Bond, associate editor at Free Market News, says. China, he says, has admitted that they have literally run out of silver, and now they need to buy it! A country so big that it has almost five times as many people as ours needs to buy silver, because we, a country that has five times fewer people in it, have used all the silver to get to where we are! I mean, the potential demand for silver staggers the imagination!
So I love the idea that the SUA thinks that a lousy 130 million ounces of silver would drive up prices so much that the government has a vested interest, in the public good, to literally forbid people from buying silver, when it is perfectly legal to do so now. It staggers the mind! These guys are actually suggesting, and notice how I am repeating myself because I cannot believe this is happening, that you must be prevented, by force of law, from conveniently buying and owning silver, although it is perfectly alright for you to otherwise buy and own the identical amount of silver! Gaaaaaaah!
So if you want my stupid Mogambo opinion (SMO) about whether silver is astonishingly cheap in light of these two developments, namely the announcement by China that they were in the market as buyers, and the SUA announcing that a stinking ETF would make silver so scarce that it would drive up the price to crippling levels, then I will take this opportunity to show off. Without a safety net or even checking the facts, I fearlessly announce that I am staking out my claim to financial immortality by loudly proclaiming, in that piercing, girly screech that I call a voice, that silver, at less than eight bucks an ounce, is so freaking cheap that it is also the fabled Mogambo Investment Tip Of The Century (MITOTC), which reads, in its entirety, "Buy silver now! And lots of it!"
- You can almost hear the panic in the voice of Ken Gerbino, of Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company, who writes that "The US Geological Survey states that 'global discoveries of new oil peaked in 1962.' All oil fields face what is called production declines. This is where less oil comes out every year after a production peak is attained. The giant Prudhoe Bay field is now declining at 11% per year and the giant Mexican field Cantarell is expected to decline by 14% annually starting next year. Globally, production declines are present in approximately 80% of the world's oilfields."
I know what you are thinking. You're are thinking that the theory of Peak Oil is true, and it appears to be true, except for one or two oil fields that mysteriously re-filled themselves. He says "Using supply and demand numbers that appear very reasonable, it appears that currently a global oil squeeze has started with little relief in sight. A severe supply shortfall looks possible within 6 years and could have profound social, political and economic consequences."
If you are like me, you don't give a rat's patootie about the stupid social consequences, and ditto the stupid political consequences, and it is the economic consequences that are the interesting part, as this is where money can be made!
So, you raise your hand and ask if he really said the words "severe shortfall", and he says that yes, he did. So you turn and look at me, and innocently say "Mogambo, what are the investment opportunities in something that is going to have a severe shortfall?" The routine Mogambo response is to not say a word, but to knock you out of my way to get someplace to buy whatever in the hell it is that is going to have a "severe shortfall" because, brothers and sisters, I have read too, too many books and too, too many articles in too, too many magazines, journals and newspapers about too, too many guys who were in the right place at the right time, which is defined in the original Mogambo Dictionary of Economic Terms (MDOET) as "Buying low, especially right before a big price rise caused by a supply shortfall, and doubly-especially right before a SEVERE supply shortfall, as the necessary 'buy-low prelude' to 'selling high' at a later time, and thus making one hell of a lot of money in the process. See also Profits, Obscene amounts of."
bartolumeo
19-10-05, 14:47
But we will not go and look this up in the MDOET because we have finely-honed financial instincts, and we instinctively know that buying anything connected with oil is going to be a great idea for, ummmm, checking my watch for the exact time, the rest of your freaking life.
- The alarm bells and klaxons and horns and buzzers all started going off inside the heavily-fortified Mogambo bunker when Bloomberg reported that "Import prices rose 2.3 percent after a 1.2 percent gain in August, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The increase excluding oil was the largest since record-keeping started in January 1989 because of increases in natural gas prices." MarketWatch reports this as "U.S. consumer inflation surged at the fastest pace in more than 25 years"
And thanks for Doug Noland for keeping us current with our commodities inflation indexes. "For the week, the CRB added 0.7%, increasing y-t-d gains to 15.4%. The goldman Sachs Commodities index increased 0.5%, with 2005 gains rising to 43.6%."
I am looking at these increases and am choking on my own fear, but Doug Casey says that "Many people think commodity prices are higher now, but in inflation-adjusted dollars many key commodities are actually cheaper than they were before the last great commodities bull market peaked. For example, the current 'record high' crude oil price of $68 is only $31.63 in 1981 dollars, when oil peaked at $38.34. gold, at $440, is only $185.55 in 1980 dollars, when gold peaked at $850. In fact, at $440 in 2005 dollars, gold is actually lower than it has been in 30 years... save for the 2000-2003 period when it bottomed."
So gold is, when viewed like this, still cheap as hell! And it is not just gold, either! He says "At $1.73, copper today is at about half of the 1980 peak of $1.44. This doesn't mean prices can't temporarily go lower - for the short-term, given my overall pessimism about the U.S. economy, I'm particularly concerned about base metals - but it does paint a bullish picture for commodities for years to come. Long-term, however, the question is not 'if' demand for commodities will grow, but, 'How fast?' "
The next thing I know, Martin Weiss, who has been listening to all of this, is calmly saying "We have the Future Inflation Gauge from the Economic Cycle Research Institute which reports a jump from 120.7 to 122.7 in September, the highest reading in over five years. We have the Conference Board's recent survey, showing the biggest single-month jump in inflationary expectations in 15 years! We have the survey from the Institute of Supply Management, saying its index of prices paid for raw materials has suddenly skyrocketed from 62.5 to 78, also the largest jump in fifteen years. And now we have our own September inflation number, the worst in a quarter-century." And he did not mention Tuesday's release of the Producer Price Index, which jumped 1.9% for the month, also the biggest jump in something like 31 years!
In a separate report, because the Labor Department knows how this stuff affects me when I read it all at once, said that average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, fell 1.2%. Market Watch notes that "Real average hourly earnings are down 2.4% in the past year, while real average weekly earnings are down 2.7%, the biggest drop in 14 years."
Toni Sagami of the Money and Markets newsletter is as gloomy as I am about this when he says "consumers are also getting hit with higher gasoline prices and air fares ... fuel surcharges and price hikes from a long list of energy consuming companies ... higher property taxes ... much higher home insurance premiums ... and higher interest rates, especially on teaser-rate, adjustable mortgages."
He leaves out a lot of other things that have higher prices, like every other freaking thing in the whole damned world except my paycheck, as far as I can tell. But before I stand up and enlighten this guy about how it is out here in the REAL world, and I am talking the REAL world where The Mogambo lives with imaginary friends but with real enemies all around me, waiting to pounce, and who want to steal my stuff like they stole my youth, my health, my hair, my teeth, my hearing, and a lot of other stuff that I don't want to talk about, he continues, "What do you think these sudden jumps in the cost of living will mean to most Americans?"
My immediate response is, of course, "Who in the hell cares what happens to them? I care about what happens to ME, you big stupid moron!" Well, this is what I was THINKING, and I would have said it, too, if he hadn't immediately gone on to say, "I think the answer is simple: Any extra dollars they have to spend on items they have to buy translates into fewer dollars they'll be able to spend at places they want to go visit - like McDonalds, Wal-Mart, or Toys R Us." Well, his guess was pretty close, but he lost points because there were no references to businesses whose marquees advertise "Girls! Girls! Girls!", or "Pizza Pizza Pizza!"
But Mr. Sagami does not want to dignify my gutter-level lifestyle with a reply, but instead keeps talking about what HE wants to talk about, and that is the drop in discretionary income. Not surprisingly, then, he goes on to say "That's exactly what we began to see last month when Wall Street was shocked by the news that the nation's retail sales dropped 2.1% in August, the largest single-month decline in four years."
Perha